Dow

[peat]

A classic looking W double bottom pattern (bullish),

Trouble is I see W's as bearish.
Sure the hammer in August and the respect of that in January could be considered a double bottom and hence bullish, but to me M's are bullish and W's are bearish

[Baa_Baa]

@peat in as much as the double bottom reversal shows, the pattern has been bullish forming a W, rising to the neckline. Whether that can breakout-up is another matter, you may be right that it goes bear here.

Here's an update on the table I posted 22 Feb, now including 23 Apr and the Change. Sure has been bullish for the US and NZ equities indexes, though not so for Gold.

Attachment 7993

[Valuegrowth]

It is interesting to see DOW is holding 18,000 despite Microsoft’s fall.

[Hoop]

Don't let the W shape alter your perceptions it is this shape at the moment..charts are full of w actions both during uptrends and downtrends but most go unnoticed as they are insignificant.. many are just continuation events which really sums up the prediction outcomes of W movements..
When an "can't miss seeing" pronounced W happens all shorts of predictions pop up in the media, many look to the revision mirror and see sharp W corrections and an optimist sees a sharp rally extending through to new highs or a pessimist sees an impending crash when the W shape is played out..
There isn't much info on W but there is some recognition that the big w is a chart pattern, strangely the big w has a much lower middle rally point so really it should be called small w as people refer to a big w as a capital W which in the alphabet has a high middle rally point...
Why isn't a W recognised widely as a chart pattern is strange..one answer from me could be that the W are really other patterns such as a formed double bottom (bullish pattern) or a triple tops (bearish pattern) still in progress..so you can see how different investors can take different predictive views...
While the right hand side W was still forming ...this last DOW rally had a doubtful rising wedge pattern (S&P500 pronounced pattern) ..This sharp uptrend ended about a month ago (downward breakout of the rising wedge, but..against many TAers it has kept going up abeit in a much slowing upward rounding type trend to this present day full W shape...

Although I'm in the long term bear camp (still am)..Arfter the rising wedge break I actually thought this slowing trend to flat line or possible slow declining trend may play out over the following month (19th March to 19th April) and did not think a crash would happen for the following month up to 19th April 2016

Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?

Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities (Bulkowski). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..

Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..

VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

** 14% / √12 = 3.46%

This little prediction turned out nicely for me as most still favoured either a another sharp fall/crash or a continuation of a rapid uptrend to smash through resistances to new record highs and even higher within a couples of weeks...

My belief is still the same.. I'm been very amazed and impressed by Wall St resilience against most odds..but..Until I see a record high (above the margin of error) I will still view the DOW as being in a Bear Market Cycle (stage 1) not a sleeping bull,,therefore view any rally as a sucker rally and therefore I will always be cautious...Remember sucker rallies are notorious as they can suck in the best of us into thinking the worst is over..that's why they call it sucker rally..They are rare but I have seen a full retracement including a small record high sucker rally..

[Hoop]

It is interesting to see DOW is holding 18,000 despite Microsoft’s fall.

Yes..I thought the amount of money tied up in these supersized stocks any significant fall would see investors in other stocks cashing up in fear of the overall market losing momentum....it seems I was wrong..again

[Baa_Baa]

It is interesting to see DOW is holding 18,000 despite Microsoft’s fall.

Equally as interesting is the massive upside gains in some of the DOW30 stocks, for example Caterpillar gained over twice as much % as MSFT lost. Have a look ... http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/ Makes you wonder who's selling and who's buying. Plenty of speculation lately about that.

[Valuegrowth]

Equally as interesting is the massive upside gains in some of the DOW30 stocks, for example Caterpillar gained over twice as much % as MSFT lost. Have a look ... http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/ Makes you wonder who's selling and who's buying. Plenty of speculation lately about that.

Yes. It is also very interesting.

Next week will be the busiest week for earnings. Some of the stocks to watch are DuPont, GE, CAT, IBM, MCD, JPM, VX, WMT and UTX.

It is kind of rotational bull market that we are going to see in global stocks markets in 2016. It should be value stocks over growth stocks.

My next target for DOW is 18500 after this earnings season. Hope that earnings will not disappoint us.

[Baa_Baa]

Yes. It is also very interesting.

Next week will be the busiest week for earnings. Some of the stocks to watch are DuPont, GE, CAT, IBM, MCD, JPM, VX, WMT and UTX.

It is kind of rotational bull market that we are going to see in global stocks markets in 2016. It should be value stocks over growth stocks.

My next target for DOW is 18500 after this earnings season. Hope that earnings will not disappoint us.

Which of those companies is not buying back their own shares? And of those who are, which are using debt to buy back? This I think is at the nub of the capital appreciation and needs to be understood as to whether the US equities rise in recent times is sustainable. Conversely, who is selling to the buyers? Are they China, Canada, Europe .. unloading their vast holdings of US equities, into the last desperate phase of a market appreciation? Intriguing times these are, and those immediately ahead of us. It all looks very fragile to me.

[Valuegrowth]

Good observation Baa Baa. Stock prices can go up or down due to more than one reasons. Some want to support their own shares. Not only some of the most sophisticated investors but also private equity firms were buying back their own shares.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/303762...ed-bull-market

Have central banks restarted bull market?

[Baa_Baa]

Good observation Baa Baa. Stock prices can go up or down due to more than one reasons. Some want to support their own shares. Not only some of the most sophisticated investors but also private equity firms were buying back their own shares.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/303762...ed-bull-market

Have central banks restarted bull market?

Thanks, good article. Great line about the head wanting to buy but the discipline preventing it.

These two I found interesting as well:

Who the Heck Is Buying the US Stocks that Chinese and other Foreign Investors Are Massively Dumping? http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/19/who...ively-dumping/

This Also Happened the Last 2 Times before Stocks Crashed http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/18/fin...arket-crashes/