STO Santos Limited

[PSE]

I asked for it I guess but to be honest Daytr I am not interested too much in analyst forecasts for oil.
Andrew Hall is definitely talking up his position but also not lying about specifics (seasonality of demand or storage levels), he was wrong about the price of oil going up. Maybe it is just the dates of the report or something like that.
The oil price will rise something in the middle between the negative and positive analyst viewpoints if the future was certain they would all be saying the same thing.

[Daytr]

Yep, can't argue with that.
Not sure if he was lying or not, but he got some pretty fundamental things very wrong.
Anyway should be a nice green day for STO today.

[Aaron]

I guess anyone on this thread has already read this.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/energ...30-gjayml.html

[Daytr]

Thanks Aaron, I hadn't seen it, but I felt like I had as its all the things I have been saying for some time.

[Daytr]

I'm back short by the way. ;-)
Covered at $4.85, now back short at $5.34.
Maybe a little premature & kicked myself for not hitting it above $5.50 last week, but there was just too much volatility.

[Daytr]

Another huge rally in oil overnight Brent & WTI up over 8% at one stage.
Glad I took my 4% intraday profit yesterday! STO should open much higher after 27% gains in oil in the last three sessions.
Looking at the chart STO could rally back to around $6, but if it does I'll be back short.
Shorted Brent this morning, but that too from a pure TA perspective could reach $60, but again would probably be a great shorting opportunity.
'There is fairly good resistance right here. Saudis want to talk to producers. What does that mean?

[Daytr]

Wow STO didn't pop as high as I thought it might and then tanked! Down 6%!
No news I can see, a little odd considering oil's surge in recent days.
I think people realize that they are currently loosing money at anything slightly below USD60/bbl Brent.

[Daytr]

Crude dumped again, day before's gains wiped out.
STO down 6% on a day when crude was up 7%, what's it going to be like today?
Damn I wish I had managed to get short again!
My target of $3.50 is now in real danger of being hit.
The real danger here is, its if the banks get nervous as there will be all sorts of debt covenants likely to be triggered.
If that happens a giant CR will be forced on them, rather than management choosing to raise capital.
So again IF that happens the dilution will be massive, however wiping out a chunk of debt is critical.

[mayday]

The assets sale is more likely to happen rather than cr if happens. GLNG project is on track of completion, sp shall recover from current bottom low once their cashflow turns into positive

http://www.afr.com/news/special-repo...0150831-gjbdrp

[Daytr]

Yep and just as it comes on stream the Asian price of LNG is being hammered.
Sure they can sell some assets, like the pipeline, however that will drive up operational costs.
And actually owning the infrastructure is the only thing that really makes sense in a downturn, unless of course the infrastructure is made redundant.
Also will the assets raise enough? They are hardly going to get good prices in the current market.
I said over six months ago they should have sold their crude oil plays and diversified into some green energy and continue with the gas.
But I also said they should have raised capital back then.
The thing is the options of what the management can or can't do maybe taken out of their hands by the banks.
Banks will make decisions that is right from them to protect their money & not necessarily in the best long term interests of the company.

The assets sale is more likely to happen rather than cr if happens. GLNG project is on track of completion, sp shall recover from current bottom low once their cashflow turns into positive

http://www.afr.com/news/special-repo...0150831-gjbdrp