RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Snow Leopard]

Anyway, with no trendline, here is the result. I have labelled each data point with its corresponding year:

Attachment 6345

A quick check shows that while the '13 & '14 EPS are IFRS based (which includes the revaluation of investment properties) '04 & '05 EPS are GAAP based (which did not).
I am not sure when the changeover occurred.

But you need to be consistent with your inputs.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[nextbigthing]

Ole Tiger aye. Doesn't miss a beat. *




*Did however miss my birthday

[Vaygor1]

A quick check shows that while the '13 & '14 EPS are IFRS based (which includes the revaluation of investment properties) '04 & '05 EPS are GAAP based (which did not).
I am not sure when the changeover occurred.

But you need to be consistent with your inputs.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks!!
I agree it can make a huge difference. Will review.

[Vaygor1]

Hi Winner.

The data points I used came directly off your graph earlier in the thread:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post511046

Can you please let me know if you took the GAAP to IFRS conversion into account whatever year that happened in?
Will save me some trouble of delving back (and some conversion work) if you did.

Regards,
Vaygor.

[Vaygor1]

Hi Winner.

The data points I used came directly off your graph earlier in the thread:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post511046

Can you please let me know if you took the GAAP to IFRS conversion into account whatever year that happened in?
Will save me some trouble of delving back (and some conversion work) if you did.

Regards,
Vaygor.

PS. I am sure you are aware that I could have PM'd the above message to you and not publicly 'passed the buck' so-to-speak. But I couldn't resist.
It is still my own fault for not checking first. Anyway, please let me know. Vaygor.

[Vaygor1]

I decided to use this graph from RYM (as it was handy) to produce an Underlying Profit vs Shareprice Plot.

Attachment 6351

Think I will stick with Underlying profit which appears to be EPS under GAAP anyway. In 2002 to 2006 EPS and Underlying profit are identical, but I haven't checked back yet to find the year RYM actually converted to IFRS. Converting the early years to IFRS will create as many problems and uncertainties as it will solve, and I haven't got the time at present anyway. A few data points shifted slightly to my original log/log post, but nothing substantial in terms of the overall shape of the plot has changed even though the underlying profit has come down as it should.
.

So here it is:
Attachment 6350

Here with a linear trendline including forecast for 1 period (the way that excel does it anyway on log/log):
Attachment 6349

Power trendline, again with a forecast for 1 period:
Attachment 6348

[Vaygor1]

If I treat 2006,2009, and 2013 as out-lies and take them completely out of the equation, the resulting trendline is almost identical:

Attachment 6352

So there you have it (assuming I have it right this time PT). Take Underlying Profit per share to the power of 1.141 and multiply the answer by 31.92 and you should have a fairly good indication of the shareprice the market will trade RYM at under rational (non-bull non-bear) and existing market conditions. Famous last words aye?

There are some unique attributes to Ryman (adequate historical data, relatively constant growth, current economy of scale, no new share issues/buybacks, no acquisitions etc etc) which may make it risky to use this result in analysing other companies in the RV sector. Even Ryman's dynamics could change with its fairly recent entrance into Oz.

But apart form that, if RYM's underlying profit is up circa 19% at 31-March-2015 to NZ$140 million (28 cents/share), according to this method (one of many) the trendline equation equates this to a Shareprice of $7.47. Makes today's shareprice close of $7.30 look, well, okay I suppose.

Have I changed my tune a bit Winner ????

[winner69]

If I treat 2006,2009, and 2013 as out-lies and take them completely out of the equation............)

Vaygor, to me those 3 points are the most important ones (though is your 2009 point meant to be for 2008?). They represent the points when Ryman shareprice is extremely under/over valued.

Times when you should be buying to get excessive above average returns or selling (or not buying) to lock in excessive returns previously made.

From 2006 subsequent 1,3 and 5 year returns were negative. But from 2008 returns have been significantly above average.

I have had only 2 Ryman trades. First from 2002 to 2007 and the 2nd from 2011 to a few months ago. On a time in the market basis returns about 50% pa compared to about 20% pa long term returns from holding Ryman

[Beagle]

Nice trades mate, you're a real winner

[winner69]

Nice trades mate, you're a real winner

Be another one one day ....when there is another outlier on vaygors chart.

Only buy when cheap, sell when expensive - nothing radical

And in the meantime Ryman will still churn out increasing earnings