RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Beagle]

Who could blame him for wanting to buy a decent Riviera motor launch and go and relax properly this coming spring / summer and / or diversify some of his financial interests ?
Well done to him, nice timing on the sale and thoroughly deserves to retire a wealthy man in my opinion. Make the most of right now I reckon, what with Parkinson's and all...no point bothering with the 12 month ? wait list on a new built one, get this http://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/boat...1369558648.htm

[Bjauck]

hmmmmm, people buy and sell for whatever reason, Parkinson’s Disease is a pretty good reason. I think it was the family trust, not sure about delays getting monies from trust to personal bank accounts/tax reasons ect. Personally i'd be concentrating on family and health, I wouldn't be giving a stuff about my old place of work.
https://www.rymanhealthcare.co.nz/th...health-reasons-

True. Fair comment.

[troyvdh]

Indeed a very fair comment...what 3 kids.

[couta1]

Good on Simon for selling a good helping of his shares for a cool 9 mill, nice timing too I might add, I'm pretty sure he still has a good number of shares left(I worked out a while back that he had around 15 million worth) He has had a massive part to play in making Ryman what it is today.

[BlackPeter]

Wow - this must be a hell of a deck he wants to build ... I guess - sure, he is not anymore working for them, but still a worry if he (with lots of insider knowledge) thinks that there is a better place for his $9 million ...

Withdraw and apologise (after reading about his health issues ...). There is indeed a better place for his $9 million dollars ... but this has clearly nothing to do with the company.

[percy]

Good on Simon for selling a good helping of his shares for a cool 9 mill, nice timing too I might add, I'm pretty sure he still has a good number of shares left(I worked out a while back that he had around 15 million worth) He has had a massive part to play in making Ryman what it is today.

Totally agree.
Good on him, and I think we would like to wish him well, for the challenges, he and his family face.

[Baa_Baa]

Totally agree.
Good on him, and I think we would like to wish him well, for the challenges, he and his family face.

Sincerely yes. Nice sentiment Percy, well said.

[whatsup]

Who could blame him for wanting to buy a decent Riviera motor launch and go and relax properly this coming spring / summer and / or diversify some of his financial interests ?
Well done to him, nice timing on the sale and thoroughly deserves to retire a wealthy man in my opinion. Make the most of right now I reckon, what with Parkinson's and all...no point bothering with the 12 month ? wait list on a new built one, get this http://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/boat...1369558648.htm

Very well timed sell imo as RYM has risen .70 in the last month =ing a additional $700,000.00 in the kitty, well done as it will come in very handy in the years ahead.

[Snoopy]

Well that was a very gloomy report about the state of the market. Notice their shorting SUM too.

I have been waiting for about ten years to buy into RYM. I thought the weakening of the Auckland property market would provide my 'bargain' entry point, but it hasn't happened yet (I don't count this month's house price sales being less than last months a serious weakening). I have never fully understood what makes RYM so valuable, but the Salt Fund assessment does resonate. That doesn't mean I agree with the Salt fund manager conclusions. But the market drivers they are looking at make sense to me.

"We have waxed lyrical (or cacophonous) on many occasions about how retirement village investors are facing potentially significant balance sheet risk when housing and thence retirement unit sales
slow."

"Who would want to own a property developer after the market has peaked? Who would pay multiples of a developer’s NTA for developments not just on the land that they currently own but on future land purchases that are merely a glint in their eye? That is the situation with Ryman and Summerset. Our issue is not their management capability but their balance sheets and valuation now that the housing market has turned."

I think it is debatable whether the housing market has turned or is simply pausing. But my (incomplete?) understanding of the Ryman business model is this.

Most of the capital gains from increases in unit valuations flow into the balance sheet and are tax free. That won't continue in Australia for a start because AFAIK only the family home is capital gains tax exempt there. Thus over the last ten years Ryman has had a massive tailwind of 'free' capital with which to leverage their original modest capital base. Pricing Ryman on historical multiples carries an implication that this source of funding will continue. It might, if those millions of millionaires in China and India are allowed to invest offshore by buying into the Auckland property market. But at some point, I think this will become politically unacceptable for NZ voters (we may be at that point already). So non residents must end up being banned from buying houses. When that happens can domestic buyers take up the slack? The answer to that question, with housing affordability at an all time low and rising interest rates on the horizon, is no. So it is clear that the constantly inflating property portion of the Ryman balance sheet will grind to a halt under this scenario. At best lower property leverage means lower growth. At worst?

Negative property inflation in Auckland could be catastrophic for Ryman. If that happened could they be forced to sell assets at a discount simply to comply with more conservative banking covenants? What may save them is that Ryman properties sell typically over five year gap periods. So if a property value reversal happened it might take five year for Ryman to see the effects of that flow through to the balance sheet.

Is Ryman, when the fog clears from the glasses just a property developer? One thing that is clear is that Ryman are not the only company able to build 'Over 60s' housing. But is building 'Over 60s' housing equivalent to building 'affordable housing', which is something that property developers in a free market don't do?

I can't close without mentioning the retirement of CEO Simon Challis, surely one of the most boring chief executives ever. That is not a facetious comment. Boring chief executives appear boring because they are knuckling down and getting on with the job without grandiose distractions. And that is usually a very good thing for shareholders.


SNOOPY

[winner69]

Headline sounds like veiled profit warning

. RYMAN HEALTHCARE SAYS DEMAND STRONG BUT 1H GROWTH LIKELY LIMITED



http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0...ly-limitedhtml