RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[winner69]

I totally respect your point of view mate.
I simply think everything good about the stock is already factored into the SP and while its stays under its 100 day MA I can't make a case to myself to re-establish a position in RYM.
Classic case of waiting for TA to give the right signal to get back in IMO. SUM is weak too, the whole sector has had a heck of a good run.

Jeez getting close to 750

Still quite a long way to go I fear

[Beagle]

Jeez getting close to 750

Still quite a long way to go I fear

Agree 100%. I've lost any interest in re-entering this sector. See post on long term fundamentals in SUM thread.
Future profits in my opinion will be undermined by a slowing in house price increases, (third most expensive country in the world for house prices on a per capita basis), simple logic suggests the most likely direction is our real estate will get cheaper on an international comparative basis, why with rising interest rates and a collapse in the dairy sector why would it continue to go up ?), so long term profits from resale will be compromised. Only Auckland is being propped up by massive level's of new immigrants, that can't last forever.

Been a great ride, party is over, PE too high, reality bites, beware the lengthy and painful hangover. Three companies looking to list in the retirement sector sucking ALL the wind out of the incumbent players sails, how could the stock possibly head north swimming against that tidal wave of new IPO's ? Stock is a great short position to take in my opinion, for those that get into that sort of thing.

[dingoNZ]

I'm a happy LT holder - ups and downs don't bother me too much, although on paper its hurting currently. Results aren't too far away however.

[Mista_Trix]

Lower lows, lower highs, and a death cross... surely a long down-trend ahead regardless of results.
RYM and SUM look to have turned, MET still chugging along though.

[Beagle]

Lower lows, lower highs, and a death cross... surely a long down-trend ahead regardless of results.
RYM and SUM look to have turned, MET still chugging along though.

Totally agreed but have you noticed the almost complete lack of depth to the buy side of MET today ?
The other thing is another nice warm winter and fewer residents vacating their units (SUM's resales announcements), doesn't give a bright indication of resales for RYM in the pending half yearly result.

[couta1]

I'm a happy LT holder - ups and downs don't bother me too much, although on paper its hurting currently. Results aren't too far away however.

Ditto but it doesn't matter if you have a 5 year time frame, would be nice to be buying at these lower prices rather than at $8 plus but I've given up trying to time the market I've learnt its a futile exercise for companies like Ryman with such good fundamentals and as Percy posted over on the Sum thread there's a gale force wind developing in terms of demand going forward.

[macduffy]

An interesting article by Patrick Smellie in today's DomPost - which doesn't seem to have found its way to the Stuff website yet - titled "Housing sector could be English's legacy".

According to Bill English "There's room for a product, not a gold-plated Ryman product, for around 15,000 tenants in some kind of medium-density communal living. We could have Housing Corp do that. It would be a long slow process. Or we could have a market compete to provide that product ......."

Implications for Ryman and the other retirement village providers - if/when it ever happens.

[Mista_Trix]

An interesting article by Patrick Smellie in today's DomPost - which doesn't seem to have found its way to the Stuff website yet - titled "Housing sector could be English's legacy".

According to Bill English "There's room for a product, not a gold-plated Ryman product, for around 15,000 tenants in some kind of medium-density communal living. We could have Housing Corp do that. It would be a long slow process. Or we could have a market compete to provide that product ......."

Implications for Ryman and the other retirement village providers - if/when it ever happens.

I only skimmed the article but wasn't that more in relation to state provided houses. So the types of individuals they're talking about wouldn't have the capacity to retire into a home anyway..??

[macduffy]

I only skimmed the article but wasn't that more in relation to state provided houses. So the types of individuals they're talking about wouldn't have the capacity to retire into a home anyway..??

Probably, but there's also a segment who may opt for the cheaper version to have more money to spend in other ways - on family, hobbies, travel etc. The other implication is that it may attract RYM etc to be the providers of this cheaper option - under a different brand, of course!

[percy]

Probably, but there's also a segment who may opt for the cheaper version to have more money to spend in other ways - on family, hobbies, travel etc. The other implication is that it may attract RYM etc to be the providers of this cheaper option - under a different brand, of course!

There will always be people who live on top of the hill,while others live at the bottom of the hill.
The challenges is going to be catering for all the different income levels.
We will see Penthouse to camping grounds,and all the time governments providing more services to keep people in their own homes.