Rising hopes about the debt? Misplaced IMO. We are heading for a recession in much of Europe and the US too.
The market will wake up soon enough. Sucker's rally, but that is just a guess. Looking strong technically.
As for the "occupy" protests, they have only begun. Wait until unemployment kicks in over the enxt six months.
With a fixed point of protest and the unemployed nowhere to go, things are going to get very interesting.
Power to the people.
TBE,
I think you have taken me out of context. I should have probably pointed out that, "the Markets rising on hopes" thing, is something I wrote from having taken that from the media. I was not referring that, Hope is going to save us.
Personally most times I take each day for what it is, yet in the back of my mind even on this upswing, I completely agree with you on where we "actually could be headed" and the type of rally this is, because there still remains much "uncertainty".
Anyhow, sorry for my poor use of grammar...lol
Trackers,
Thanks again for you TMSI
--> Watch THRIVE 2011 a must watch Doco! --> Also watch ETHOS 2011 & share the Awareness~!
Price yesterday sat just above support and had a slight bounce. Yet there is a saying that if something is not going to continue upward, then it is sure to fall, hence the move today which also had taken a lead from the US.
Also looking at the chart above shows us how price makes a move up to the EMA line (twice) like a magnet, and then repels which should see retest the lower EMA or to test the middle of the Bollinger band range which can be seen with slight darker dots than the bb background colour.
Some divergence in the MACD histogram towards the centre line as too the Williams %R will no doubt be heading downward for a downturn.
RSI still remains above 50 and any break below the value of 40 would be considered Negative.
Meanwhile, the weekly chart shows a tad of positive MACD Histogram (probably gone today though) with signal line preparing to cross for an upmove.
Williams %R on the weekly also had also been showing a move upward which now could have turned down on the weekly.
Price on the weekly has run up to actually touch the 13ema which has not happened since the previous 2 times in approx Sep & Aug.
Currently the weekly shows price above support and should tomorrow also be a down turn then support becomes resistance as it will show on the daily on todays chart which is yet to be posted.
As I type below is a snapshot of the morning SPI or SNFE (Sydney Futures Exchange).
The chart above shows you a 60 minute and a 15 min chart combined as of 11:03am today.
Clearly we can see on the 15 min a breakdown on Tuesday just gone and the 60 minute chart now confirming a down move also.
These charts with live data can be very helpful in spotting potential divergence in the market so if a huge fall begins then take some risk off the table.
Having typed all that, I dont really see what if any fuss is all about because again, as I type the Bloomberg Futures seems to be showing both the US and DAX and FTSE in the green.
Well, thats enough babble from me, have a great day folks.
Cheers~!
--> Watch THRIVE 2011 a must watch Doco! --> Also watch ETHOS 2011 & share the Awareness~!
Nicholson's data for September has the All Ords on a PE of 11.45 (the All Ords was 4070 on Sep 30th)
Implied earnings are as at sep are 6% higher than June and 23% higher than a year ago (Sep 10). So the companies on the ASX are doing very well earnings wise.
Even though earnings are 23% than a year ago the ASX All Ords has fallen by 12% - as a result of the market PE falling from 16 a year ago to the 11.45 this September. just shows that earnings ain't everything eh, market sentiment (what people are prepared to pay for a buck of earnings) is essentially the key driver of the market
I believe that the ASX is still in a secular bear market (ie declining PEs rather than price) and these sort of bear markets don't conclude until we have PEs well below 10 for a few quarters.
This is what PE's look like over the last few decades - is this time any different?
I believe that the ASX is still in a secular bear market (ie declining PEs rather than price) and these sort of bear markets don't conclude until we have PEs well below 10 for a few quarters.
This is what PE's look like over the last few decades - is this time any different?
Thanks for the PE chart Winner.
Its great to have the whole scenario viewed from a complete different angle as you have done. More food on the table so so speak.
With regards to the secular bear market, I would be inclined to very much agree with you here. If I were to make up my own words to what type of market I feel we are in it would sound something like "Declining Flat Slightly Rising Declining Market" lol.
I feel this whole Euro kettle type event is eventually going to come to a boil and at some stage completely spill over. In the meantime it seems the are now doing what the US has done for so long which has been Kick the Can down the road.
Looks like a flat type of day although the SNFE 15 min chart has broken upward above the 13ema although the 60 is only testing the lower part of the 13ema. Global futures are showing the US only slightly green or flat with the DAX and FTSE in the red.
Guess we will see how Japan and China come out swinging for a better indication.
--> Watch THRIVE 2011 a must watch Doco! --> Also watch ETHOS 2011 & share the Awareness~!
Anybody else out there finding these choppy waters annoying?
In, out, no in, no out, whatever.
Time to call it the day for me today as I have a few other IT computer type related tasks to take care of.
Here is a yesterdays XAO showing a break of support (now resistance). It seems that the 4,252 line/zone seems to be a temporary magnet for the Aussie main index which as I type now sits just below 4,200
Meanwhile, it can be shown in the following chart which shows both a 6day 15 min and 30 day 60 min charts some of the chop we are going through showing lower lows being created on the 15 min thus eventually the 60 tracking to the lower part of the 13ema.
Nicholson's data for September has the All Ords on a PE of 11.45 (the All Ords was 4070 on Sep 30th)
Implied earnings are as at sep are 6% higher than June and 23% higher than a year ago (Sep 10). So the companies on the ASX are doing very well earnings wise.
Even though earnings are 23% than a year ago the ASX All Ords has fallen by 12% - as a result of the market PE falling from 16 a year ago to the 11.45 this September. just shows that earnings ain't everything eh, market sentiment (what people are prepared to pay for a buck of earnings) is essentially the key driver of the market
I believe that the ASX is still in a secular bear market (ie declining PEs rather than price) and these sort of bear markets don't conclude until we have PEs well below 10 for a few quarters.
This is what PE's look like over the last few decades - is this time any different?
The change in market sentiment has had a huge impact on the ASX this year ... from January
The year started with the All Ords at 4847 .... earnings are up and if the ame PE applied now the All Ords would be 5650 (gurus like Oliver think like this and you can see where he gets his 5500 odd from eh)
Today the All Ords is just over 4200 - down 25% from where it would be if market sentiment (ie PE) hadn't changed
So even though more money is being made shareholders have had an abysmal year
Just goes to show you can do all the fundamental analysis under the sun to calculate discounted cash flows and fair value and intrinsic value but at the end of the day it counts for nothing as changes in market sentiment are the real drivers of the market (and won't create another furore by saying how you can see this changing)
Bugger eh - company profits up 16% plus but the market taken away 25% cause everybody is more risk adverse or whatever is driving the change in sentiment ... all in 9 months and a bit
Wow, DAX and FTSE completely had a party today it seems.
The DOW also on a roll as well.
But honestly, sometimes these people will do anything to make money some way.
On CNN Money, with headlines like: "Stocks rally, but Europe better get it right" I mean, honest to buggery, as if folks are going to start counting their chickens.
I guess the ice is still thin and the cracks are still there, and we all dont know how far we will get before the cracks start to break.
--> Watch THRIVE 2011 a must watch Doco! --> Also watch ETHOS 2011 & share the Awareness~!
The change in market sentiment has had a huge impact on the ASX this year ... from January
The year started with the All Ords at 4847 .... earnings are up and if the ame PE applied now the All Ords would be 5650 (gurus like Oliver think like this and you can see where he gets his 5500 odd from eh)
Today the All Ords is just over 4200 - down 25% from where it would be if market sentiment (ie PE) hadn't changed
So even though more money is being made shareholders have had an abysmal year
Just goes to show you can do all the fundamental analysis under the sun to calculate discounted cash flows and fair value and intrinsic value but at the end of the day it counts for nothing as changes in market sentiment are the real drivers of the market (and won't create another furore by saying how you can see this changing)
Bugger eh - company profits up 16% plus but the market taken away 25% cause everybody is more risk adverse or whatever is driving the change in sentiment ... all in 9 months and a bit
Conversely though we shouldn't overlook that when markets rally or recover (ie better sentiment) one gets a double whammy and disproportionate gains - both from growing profits and earnings multiple expansion
So some hypothetical numbers - say All Ords was 4200 at beginning of year on a PE of 11.5 (like it is now) .... earnings are up 16% (has happened) ... All Ords would have increased to 4872 (the 16%) .... but if the PE expanded to 16 (actually was at the start of the year) the All Ords would be 5843 .... jeez another 20% on the top of the earnings growth.
So a 40% gain on earnings growth of 16% .... the complete opposite of what has happened since the beginning of this year where market down 15% on earnings growth of 16%
Seems to suggest buy and hold is a lost cause (at a market or well diversified level) ... excessive gains come from playing the ups and downs of the market ... and that doesn't mean it has to be day or short term trading ... the changes in market sentiment can play out over many months and even years sometimes
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Originally Posted by The Big Ease
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