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Despite a down week on the ASX the uptrend from the march lows still in place. ASX200 weekly close at 3,900 stil higher than a few weeks ago.
Fib support/resistance at just under 4,000 .... last week was just a breather and once 4,000 is broken through again next stop is 4,500 in a month or so.
... but those charts closely
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My "index switch" has shown a loss of momentum overthe past few days. Both the slow stochastics and the momentum indicator have crossed below the 50 line. We are still below the 200 day EMA and the long term downtrendline. RSI is still not there yet. Also we are in a tight trading range between 3970 and 3740, that break above 4000 looks like a false breakout? Not bearish yet but no longer bullish intermediate term.
Last edited by AMR; 27-06-2009 at 02:28 AM.
Disclaimer: Do not take my posts seriously. They are only opinions.
AMR has sold all shares and is pursuing property.
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Originally Posted by AMR
My "index switch" has shown a loss of momentum overthe past few days. Both the slow stochastics and the momentum indicator have crossed below the 50 line. We are still below the 200 day EMA and the long term downtrendline. RSI is still not there yet. Also we are in a tight trading range between 3970 and 3740, that break above 4000 looks like a false breakout? Not bearish yet but no longer bullish intermediate term.
I look at these things like you say you might .... weekly
The ASX200 was up for the week (all that 'noise' early in the week faded away) and the recent uptrend remains in place.
As you say maybe a bit weaker than a few weeks ago but still an uptrend
Interesting there is a Fib level at just under 4,000 .... get over that for a few weeks and hey its all uphill to close to 4,500 for the next hurdle.
Market conditions still like +ve on the ASX
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Originally Posted by winner69
I look at these things like you say you might .... weekly
The ASX200 was up for the week (all that 'noise' early in the week faded away) and the recent uptrend remains in place.
As you say maybe a bit weaker than a few weeks ago but still an uptrend
Interesting there is a Fib level at just under 4,000 .... get over that for a few weeks and hey its all uphill to close to 4,500 for the next hurdle.
Market conditions still like +ve on the ASX
ASX200 over 4000 looking good later this week ... David Jones says they lead the economy into the down but also lead the economy out ..... and great guidance today
That 4500 might be sooner than i thought ... maybe 5000 by Xmas
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Chart Update
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Originally Posted by winner69
ASX200 over 4000 looking good later this week ... David Jones says they lead the economy into the down but also lead the economy out ..... and great guidance today
That 4500 might be sooner than i thought ... maybe 5000 by Xmas
Care to re-visit this prediction and see that green shoot u have Phaedrus, change it to brown please.
Because unfortunately ASX is stiil coupled to the DOW, monkey sse monkey do.
/marketstate/country/us Dow Jones Industrial Average
Countdown to close
INDU
/quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed
8,330
Change
-173.74 -2.04%
Last edited by tricha; 03-07-2009 at 07:09 AM.
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Originally Posted by tricha
Care to re-visit this prediction and see that green shoot u have Phaedrus, change it to brown please.
Because unfortunately ASX is stiil coupled to the DOW, monkey sse monkey do.
/marketstate/country/us Dow Jones Industrial Average
Countdown to close
INDU
/quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed
8,330
Change
-173.74 -2.04%
green shoots, hmm, as u wish
TA can not see the wood from the trees.?
Last edited by tricha; 03-07-2009 at 11:48 PM.
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Originally Posted by tricha
See that green shoot u have Phaedrus, change it to brown please.]
Sorry Tricha - no can do. You see, the AllOrds index is still in an uptrend. The plot will remain green until the market weakens.
Originally Posted by tricha
Green shoots, hmm, as you wish......TA cannot see the wood from the trees
Tricha, the phrase "you can't see the wood for the trees" means that you can't see the whole situation clearly because you're looking too closely at small details, usually because you're too closely involved. The 6+ year AllOrds chart as posted above gives a superb overview of the whole situation. By focussing on short-term movements of the Dow, you are missing the big picture. Tricha, it is YOU that can't see the wood for the trees!!!!
The market has now been in a steep uptrend for 4 months. Spectacular and profitable as this has been, such a rapid increase cannot be sustained and we must expect a correction. Such retracements are a normal, natural part of a healthy market. They do not denote the end of Western civilisation as we know it and should not be a cause for panic. They are a time for caution - no more, no less.
The Dow closed the week down 2.6%. Should the AllOrds drop a similar percentage on Monday, it will close at 3773. This would end the current uptrend, breach previous support at 3793, break below the short-term moving average plotted here and begin a perfectly normal expected retracement ....coloured blue like all the others.
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New Improved Version.
Colour coding divides the market into 4 separate phases. The colours are derived from the combination of multiple technical indicators.
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Worth a thousand words
Great Charts, thanks Phaedrus
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