All Ords Index.

[denpal]

Thanks P, appreciate it Have sold about 80% of my holdings today, going to be very interesting to see whether that turns out to be the right move.

My main concern has been that the ASX has been so weak, and the US so strong... What happens when the US reverses?

I've been buying today, strangely enough. A couple of my main ones ELM, MSR, NMGOA also very strong today giving me an untypical view of the market!!!!!!!!!!!

[Phaedrus]

Phaedrus, A week ago you were saying get in,..... a week later you say get out. Such is a week in the life of a trader.

Fortunately its not that frantic, Bermuda - in fact, there have only been 3 "reversal" signals in the last year. The important "change" signal is the first one. That's why the first appearance of light-green is marked by an arrow.
Similarly, the first appearance of yellow back in May was also marked by an arrow. Later yellow bars are really immaterial, because you are already out. You are not being urged to "get out" right at the bottom!
In short, the MSI must rise to a high level to become "Bullish" and it will stay Bullish until it drops to a low level. Any movement between these trigger levels will alter the plot colour, but will not trigger any "reversal" signal.

[macduffy]

Yes, thanks Phaedrus.

I havn't sold any of my long term portfolio stocks but I've tightened a few stop loss limits on my speccies!

Cheers

[Hoop]

I've been buying today, strangely enough. A couple of my main ones ELM, MSR, NMGOA also very strong today giving me an untypical view of the market!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes the one that I missed out on today was MSR that annoyed the hell out of me...I sold at 27c last month when the OBV and trendline broke and I was waiting to reenter 22c yesterday 23c this morning ..I go to work come home and it is 27c..damm There's a resistance at 28c so it's wait and see for me atm... Still ..I got some MSRO's though.

Yea Depal.. you've always going to have a couple of stocks that go against the market tide so the opportunity to buy and accumulate are always there but much fewer in numbers...but a closer eye is needed in these negative times and sell signals must be quickly acted upon.

[drillfix]

Well for those who enjoy more than just a colour line chart, and in tradition of trying to make myself Useful to some others here on ST, I post you a chart of the XAO close for today from my eyes.

Tricha talked previously about an early warning system which is fine and dandy and looking at a copper chart which also can be a good way to see the potential weakness setting in to some sectors, but to me some of the the real action itself can also present itself in PRICE action. (measurement line or candles etc)

Meaning, price action on this chart posted here shown on a previous post I made gave some good indication to where this market was headed.

Here it is taken from a previous post not that long ago pointing out how the upper top resistance line at 5025 was tested 7 out of 8 days

To some, primarily those who do not trade with any other indicators or perhaps maybe 1 or 2 at the most, would have read this as a complete failure and complete lack of conviction for any further rises. Call it what you want, but its quite clear shown in this chart:

Prevoius XAO daily and weekly >>>> http://i54.tinypic.com/2iu61i.png


Now,
Here is todays chart which now shows some potential targets marked as 1. & 2. , but one thing for sure is that target market 1 will be tested, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week but it will be tested (the 200 day EMA) IMO.

XAO daily and weekly >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/q...9doer07xv2.png

MACD histogram on the weekly has just turned negative with the signal line just starting to cross as of today. Weekly Williams %R is also showing oversold which only took 2 days to become oversold on a weekly.

The daily shows oversold Williams as well and has done so for the near past 12 trading days, along with RSI and OBV heading down.

I believe we have a lot more to fall to get the bounce we need. But then this is a two bladed knife. One must take caution in believing that we will bounce back and rush off to make new Highs which after today, we have now started making a LOWER LOW which means any bounce no matter how things look or feel will then only eventually result in a LOWER HIGH, which will take us back down to the position 2. whereby 4700 will be a make or break time for all to reflect on, if by chance you still choose to be in.


Again I apologise if the charts you view are completely too big or wide and if they are please just post if they are so I can maybe edit future sizes to your liking.

[drillfix]

Here is yet another view of the XAO from yesterday but incorporating a couple of Pitchforks with some depth angles of falls and rises which only serve as approximation and to also aid into where or what level of drops we can anticipate.

Saying that, I feel those depths can be quite different going down hill than coming up, if you get my drift.

Anyway, here is a chart from a different angle without support and resistance but as mentioned with pitchforks.

Only a daily chart from yesterdays data: XAO Daily >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/l...lhjoptyj6c.png

As I post this the Dow is over -200 points so lets see if our Aussie Market will follow, or rebel. Things have been funny of late so who knows.

Time for sleep folks, cya all tomorrow for whatever type of day.

[Corporate]

Yes, Drill it's going to be an interesting day on the markets...especially since it's a friday!

[Entrep]

Bears definitely in control? Oil down, gold down, yet market still down heavily too!

[trackers]

I've been buying today, strangely enough. A couple of my main ones ELM, MSR, NMGOA also very strong today giving me an untypical view of the market!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah ELM cranked! And NMGOA looking good too, In respect to the resource upgrade wonder how imminent is imminent

I'll be looking for your 195EMA bounce. We'll certainly know by Monday (has been a reasonably good indicator over last year except for a couple premature buy signals in June and Aug)....

Drilly, cheers for your charts I'll be watching with interest - I note Williams %R gave a great exit signal but a couple false buy signals, might play around with the time periods for that one on my charts....

[drillfix]

Is this story all about the AUD vs the USD? I.e. Off shore investors converted USD to AUD and poured into Aus stocks and the got the double gain from AUD appreciation and Aus stock appreciation and have now concluded the run has run its course and are taking theior toys and playing elsewhere?

I like interesting theories belgarion and that is one theory there, cheers.

Another one could be what is different from previous besides middle east turmoil and change politically?

Could it be a Carbon Tax?

Could it be that Julia GLizard made some sort of deal for the US taking the blame to be the 1st to crash the economy so Australia will take the blame? LOL

Nahh, I seem to like your theory better, although both middle east and carbon tax are not settling things for the markets atm.