Thread: Qbe

**drillfix** · 12-01-2012, 05:35 PM

What a bounce from the $9.88 Low.

But sheebers, these markets have not mercy and forgive nobody for "anything" both right or wrong.

Looking at a FIB scale from the previous day to the low today, it appears a level of around $11.44 could be an approx close or either that or $11.07 appox, or perhaps just in between somewhere (like yeah right)

**winner69** · 12-01-2012, 05:36 PM

The insurance industry brings in trillions of dollars in revenues .... and a vast amount of this is channelled (invested) at the industries, companies and technologies that fuel the global warming / climate change threat.

For years insurance companies dodged the bullet of major castastrophes hitting major centres and even though claims were unprecendented (mid 2000's) they did not dip too far into reserves .... but now nature has gone awry with bigger and more regular disasters (prob because of climate change) the whole industry is suffering a profitability crisis ..... and indeed its survival

Some would say getting its due comuppance ..... investing heavily in things bring about their downfall could be called dysfunctional

That was the gist of a speech I heard in 2005 .... always stayed in my mind .... maybe the insurance industry in its current form is not a sustainable business model

Just today's little rave

**Jaa** · 12-01-2012, 05:53 PM

I think you are all mad

There is no way you are going to have 2011's disasters and record low interest rates every year.

Originally Posted by winner69

What a disaster,” said Prasad Patkar (some analyst quoted in the The Age)

Sure is

In spite of all the good numbers mentioned by Jaa the shareprice has been in steady decline since 2007 ... no chart duration looks good .... esp the 10 year one ...... as Mr P says the market giveth and the market taketh away ... sure has

Interesting at these sort of levels eh Liz but one for the traders for a few days I think

The 10yr chart shows a nice continuous increase till the middle of 2007 and then a nice continuous decrease. Still up 45% excluding significant dividends according to Google Finance over this period.

The cause has been the fall in global interest rates, a general decline in stocks and last year a series of unusually expensive disasters. While these all may happen again, they are unlikely too.

**soulman** · 12-01-2012, 05:56 PM

I always thought the insurance business to be a classic ponzi. The same with banks.

Off course banks and government goes hand in hand, hence they will get bailout whenever they get in trouble.

**Halebop** · 12-01-2012, 06:16 PM

Originally Posted by Jaa

...There is no way you are going to have 2011's disasters and record low interest rates every year...

This is true but also QBE's historical performance of a few years back were against a backdrop of benign claims experience, relatively high interest rates and strong economies. i.e. They have had two polar extremes of operating environment back to back. The long term will be somewhere in between.

Of more concern is that QBE's strategy is to buy premium. They are really not that good at organic growth. As a generalisation their claims approach is a bit meaner than some peers and their processes are designed to minimise expense (They are quite strong at process engineering for cost control but less good at attracting and keeping customers). While low market valuations are useful to them, low profits and a slow growth environment don't support the acquisition strategy, unless they are either happy to issue cheap shares and dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk.

I like QBE and don't doubt they will continue to do well in the future but I think we are still in the wrong point of the cycle for them. $10 today was a f$%#en low price though! Well done if anyone was brave enough to catch that knife!

**winner69** · 12-01-2012, 06:29 PM

QBE was one of Stowyks favourites .... all the way up to the peak .... and he got heaps on this site for ramping it as he did

Hope you stillmiling down on all of us Stollie

**drillfix** · 12-01-2012, 06:40 PM

Well here is a intraday snapshot taken with 5 seconds left of trading of QBE.

QBE intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/m...BEintraday.png

Completely missed the FIB call but still, looking at either chart 5, 15, 60, or daily charts a huge Fall is a huge Fall.

Watching the DOM on the left was like watching a game of ping pong at times. up down, up down etc.

Well, tomorrow is another day and I hope some long holders whom bought in higher can recover, although the daily clearly shows QBE in a declining downtrend, mainly trading below the EMA's all the way since June 2011.

Good luck to holders and traders~!