Oh dear another profit warning and everybody pissed off again
Peat - did I see another 'one hell of a gap' down?
And the possibility of a quadruple bottom now - that's good
Will the 10 dollar mark hold this time.
Apparently no profit upgrades in the last 5 years - only downgrades - what a joke. You think they would set lower expectations but that would stuff the shareprice up so why do that as the analysts believe your forecasts anyway
I would hazard a guess heaps more bad news embedded in QBE
Will keep on watchlist - one day sometime it might be worth a punt
They seem to be good at identifying problems "after" it has well and truly bitten them, which is kind of contrary to the skill set needed for the business they are in.
Anyone else holding QBE?, I have been averaging in since the GFC.
It has possibly become too big a part of my portfolio as I doubled down on it - picking up heaps at $10-$11 when winner was slagging it off. A pretty average return for me because I didn't take the advice of posters on here that it was a black box.
I won't buy a company with a balance sheet I can't understand again.
A shareprice which has fallen and a positive analyst recommendation is not really enough to go on, hopefully I have learnt my lesson now as the recovery has dragged on. I have pretty much just matched the return of the ASX200 which has been great but I could instead have held STW.
This year we have started to see some signs of life, it seems a huge stretch for the company to return to the giddy heights of $30 a share (or $1.28 dividend) when so much dilution from equity raisings has occured. The analysts seem to think the balance sheet has been repaired and the outlook is good for the next few years.
In the absence any other decent investments in the financial sector I will continue to hold although the increase in shareprice has made me nervous and tempted to sell a few.
If the company could return to it's pre-GFC profitability of 1.8b per annum and be valued again as a growth company then selling out at $14 would be premature. I just have no idea of how to get a handle on the likelihood of this.
Of all my stories for buying companies this is the weakest as I was really just starting out. There has to be signs of a turnaround before you buy.
In this case I was buying just as the successful growth by acquisition turned out to be a lemon. The CEO Neal has appeared very pale at times, I think he had an uneviable task over previous years.
Yeah excuses don't taste too good to shareholders.
I understand insurance is very competitive at the moment, a bad part of the cycle. An increase in bond yields in the US would be nice for QBE as we have watched the quantitative easing with horror.
Would be interested in the views of other holders or naysayers
I held it for 2 years and sold out about 6 monin mhs ago after getting sick of the excuse's.
Take a look at there balance sheet it has been destroyed by poor underwriting.
A big proportion of their income comes from US treasury bonds which are returning very low yields and I can not see this changing to much any time soon.
I think okay sums up the situation quite nicely in post 56
Thanks Snaps,
I will try to get my head around that balance sheet and maybe just sell on principle if I can't. Otherwise I am just gambling which is not ideal.
Global climate change impacts the biggest challenges / threats to the future viability of the insurance industry
Certain irony really - in the past the same industry were the bigger shareholders in oil, mining etc companies whose activities contributed heaps to climate change
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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Originally Posted by peat
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