ALS Ltd - ALQ (Was Campbell Bros, CPB)

[macduffy]

The Australian reports on CPB's result.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226062257538

And thanks for your thoughts, drillfix. TA comments always appreciated!

[drillfix]

Hey, no worries there Macduff.

TA is very helpful in seeing potential warnings and issues that show up in a stock Technically, but there is never any guarantee, but more rather, probability if any. As stocks can be manipulated or traded by Algo Bots to make it appear to do one thing or another.

So we just look at the daily of of CPB taken my IB platform and mark out some of the Potential Warnings technically that tell us of certain cautions to look for which can save you a bundle, depending how much you hold or what position anybody has taken.

Here is a chart:

CPB Daily chart > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/z..._CPB-Daily.png

CPB Daily Zoomed> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/5..._CPBzoomed.png


Start form the bottom and work our way up.
MACD signal lines increases each time frame moving forward giving upward divergence as we reach what appears to be the top and then finally breaks down heavily, giving an indication that a top may have been reached. A typical sign.

DMI was also declining during the MACD decline then showed a potential cross or change in direction yet repelled bounced negative. Another sign.

Wiliams %R had been trading for the longest time up above the 50 line for the primary part of the upward run from 30+ dollars. it had broken down past the 50 centre and retested a the overbought area as many had thought it was a bounce, only to be convinced it was not and then it become immediately oversold and once again below the previous maintained above 50 line. Yet another sign.

RSI showing slight negative divergence from the Top moving down towards 40 level, any weaker will show further weakness of course.

OBV also showing total negative divergence from the top, BUT if you look closely you will see it happens a couple days prior to the bigger falls, which was a good signal using all the other combined signals which all add up.

PRICE. (the true indicator in real time)
As you can see from the left, you can see the price climb like its walking up stairs. Higher Highs, Higher Lows, and again all the way until we see a top formed.

The same holds true for a fall except the opposite.

Price starts its decline, and all the indicators above mentioned trigger warnings, a Lower High is created, then a Lower Low, and then a Lower High again and then a Lower Low again.

Question is, how long will this go on for? The answer is as long as it needs to and as long as the market believes whatever it currently believes.

Or technically one could run a Fibonacci Trace on it to see where potential targets are , but nothing is set in stone until a Lower Low or Higher High is made again so it will just go side ways up and down in a range.

Usually you will see some uncertainty and a consolidation phase set in until both overall market sentiment switch or more super fantastic outstanding results convince the market accordingly.

So there you have it, thats about it from me folks and good luck

ps:
I dont hold.
I have also added another Zoomed view of the price candles at close whereby the price it sitting right on the 60ema line which may o rmay not act as support. Yet as always, time will tell.

[macduffy]

It seems the market liked what the Chairman and the CEO had to say at today's AGM.

CPB up 4% to $46.61.

I continue to hold.

[macduffy]

It seems the market liked what the Chairman and the CEO had to say at today's AGM.

CPB up 4% to $46.61.

I continue to hold.

Make that 5% to $47.07.

One of my better investments of recent years!

[macduffy]

CPB continues on the acquisition trail.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111101/pd...vhcpvtdk80.pdf

No, not XRF. Wonder if that's next on the list?

[macduffy]

Comment on CPB's record half year result - and a few other topics!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/campb...129-1o555.html

Am I the only one interested in this success story?

[drillfix]

Reading the rest of this thread Macduff, it appears that you are!

Of course with the exception of me reading what you write and checking out a chart of the stocks performance.

CPB continues trending upward with all the EMA's lined up with price still aboe the 13ema.

A slight technical concern is that the stock is now also trading in Range Bound and failure to break above $49.72 could see the stock retest the lower EMA's

I guess those who grabbed parcels below $40.00 are quite happy with their recent move, however the longer this stock remains in this range without breaking upward, it causes me to believe it can break to test the downside.

After all, what does not go up, will come down, and vice versa, but previous tests have been to the upside and stalled.

Good luck MacDuff

[macduffy]

Thanks for your comments, drilly, much appreciated!

I've been conscious of CPB's range-bound state for a while now, despite its stellar performance profit-wise. I've put this down to the state of the market generally - although CPB has probably done rather better than the market as a whole this year? - and the rapid expansion of the business through takeovers. Nevertheless, interim dividend has been increased to 95cps, from 65c last year, I think, so profitability increases havn't come solely from takeovers.

The SP has come a long way since I bought in at a depressed price a few years ago but I won't be slow to take my profits if this range starts to break to the downside.

[drillfix]

No worries macduff, and yep, I agree that CPB has done well contrary to the rest of the market, that is a positive.

Also as is the rise in divi as you pointed out, a double bonus.

Anything that does not fall over the last year but maintains and pays a divi certainly will be a better performer than the market.

Good to see you being steadfast about the trading range also

[macduffy]

CPB has been voted the "Fund managers' favourite".

I'd better be ready to sell mine!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/campb...225-1p9i3.html