Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[dumbass]

possible bottom in around 1970 , maybe time for a counter trend rally back up into 1900s before another big drop.
playing with fire but worth a long !

[winner69]

Great article with good pictures

All about what hoop and I have been on about with these secular bulls and bears

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/lo...-ratio-2014-10

[Trigger]

Great article with good pictures

All about what hoop and I have been on about with these secular bulls and bears

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/lo...-ratio-2014-10

Great article winner. Thanks for posting.

[Hoop]

S&P dropped to 1966 -32 -1.62% and yep the GET OUT signal was triggered last night (NZ time) creating a high probability of a correction.....now we have to wait and see whether this is going to be another piddly-assed correction or a more "normal" 10-15% garden variety one (or worse, a cyclic reversal)...so, each day from now on will give us another small piece of info together with America media drama..A bit like a soap opera..huh?

Noodles ..Haven't had much exposure to Wall St for some time now ..due to $US devaluing (now ended?) ..but I always keep the finger on the USA pulse as I've found it prudent to keep tabs on the mental state of the Elephant in the same room as you.

The last few years most of my attention + money has been in NZ stocks..a no brainer really ...NZX rising just as good as Wall St + an appreciating NZ$ to boot...but all good things must come to an end...eh?.... NZ$ topped out? .but so far in the NZX there are many stocks singing to a different tune and holding up well compared to those Globally..so I'm still in until TA kicks me out or better opportunities arise...

That post was written on the 26th September...

So what has happened during the last 3 weeks?....At last a decent unrestricted correction..... this time...the Dipsters acccumulating "cheap" shares in the dips + the Feds re-assurances failed to apply enough buy pressure to create an early arrest of this correction (and create another cry wolf with the correction indicators) thereby this correction has so far been allowed to continue towards its normal completion ....

Today we have seen the first upward move creating a "bottom"..The S&P500 closed at 1887 up 24 (1.30%).... So what now?....

Firstly I will mention this rare event,,,,,,,,,,a large slow moving Flash Crash, they ignore supports and resistances and all the others Laws..They have a predictable V shape behaviour .....

A healthy Bull market correction exhibit the same behavioural patterns (Laws) as Bear market cycles except the duration is much shorter term...
The Elliot wave discipline presumes this investor behaviour with 3 waves ...initial "worry" correction such as that the price is overbought. .. "relief" rally .... followed by an "uncertainty" correction, and so on as this investor behaviour cycle may repeat....repeated "uncertainty corrections can produce enough investor fear to create panic selling..

So Questions...
Has the Bull market Cycle ended? ...too early to tell.
Has the bull market correction ended?..too early to tell....This correction is 10% so far ..it's very possible it can be bigger than this...
Is it a flash crash with its acute V-shape recovery signature...too early to tell ...(easily busting the 1895 Fib and 1905/10 resistances are the first requirements)

Not much help..huh?...so how can we evaluate this situation?....
Remember corrections are mini-me bear cycles, so this present market should follow the behaviour as mentioned above...relief rallies in bear cycles are sucker rallies so beware..Why???..When traders find and enters a near bottom and ride the rally upwards they all have preplanned exit strategies..the most simple viewpoint for us Plebs is to remember how significantly important the Support and Resistance lines on a chart become..Therefore all eyes will be on that 1905/1910 resistance line...If the S&P500 fails to break through that resistance point, then the traders will be exiting here and take their quick profits as this is the only way for them to make profits in a bear cycle by using those Bear Market investing disciplines...
This of course makes for a self-fulifilling sucker rally prophesy and the Fundies are quick to argue this and that the market has then become irrational and running due to the technicals...During Bull market corrections however traders realise this all could be temporary,,but if there is any cyclic reversal doubts lingering in the groups sub-conscious then the traders may view this bull market cycle correction as a much longer event, at least until those doubts are extinguished..which could take many months or longer..

[winner69]

Hussman still convinced a crash to come sometime

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc141020.htm

I mention large down-days for a reason. A market crash comprises of a series of one-day losses that may be large, but are not particularly extraordinary in and of themselves. The problem is that they tend to occur in sequence rather than independently

[dumbass]

Hussman still convinced a crash to come sometime

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc141020.htm

I mention large down-days for a reason. A market crash comprises of a series of one-day losses that may be large, but are not particularly extraordinary in and of themselves. The problem is that they tend to occur in sequence rather than independently

interesting perspective but the return from his funds is terrible , he wouldn't even figure in the ST competition

[Hoop]

interesting perspective but the return from his funds is terrible , he wouldn't even figure in the ST competition

Hmmmm...reminds me of another chapee ......whats his name??...ahhh yes..Bob

[skid]

That post was written on the 26th September...

So what has happened during the last 3 weeks?....At last a decent unrestricted correction..... this time...the Dipsters acccumulating "cheap" shares in the dips + the Feds re-assurances failed to apply enough buy pressure to create an early arrest of this correction (and create another cry wolf with the correction indicators) thereby this correction has so far been allowed to continue towards its normal completion ....

Today we have seen the first upward move creating a "bottom"..The S&P500 closed at 1887 up 24 (1.30%).... So what now?....

Firstly I will mention this rare event,,,,,,,,,,a large slow moving Flash Crash, they ignore supports and resistances and all the others Laws..They have a predictable V shape behaviour .....

A healthy Bull market correction exhibit the same behavioural patterns (Laws) as Bear market cycles except the duration is much shorter term...
The Elliot wave discipline presumes this investor behaviour with 3 waves ...initial "worry" correction such as that the price is overbought. .. "relief" rally .... followed by an "uncertainty" correction, and so on as this investor behaviour cycle may repeat....repeated "uncertainty corrections can produce enough investor fear to create panic selling..

So Questions...
Has the Bull market Cycle ended? ...too early to tell.
Has the bull market correction ended?..too early to tell....This correction is 10% so far ..it's very possible it can be bigger than this...
Is it a flash crash with its acute V-shape recovery signature...too early to tell ...(easily busting the 1895 Fib and 1905/10 resistances are the first requirements)

Not much help..huh?...so how can we evaluate this situation?....
Remember corrections are mini-me bear cycles, so this present market should follow the behaviour as mentioned above...relief rallies in bear cycles are sucker rallies so beware..Why???..When traders find and enters a near bottom and ride the rally upwards they all have preplanned exit strategies..the most simple viewpoint for us Plebs is to remember how significantly important the Support and Resistance lines on a chart become..Therefore all eyes will be on that 1905/1910 resistance line...If the S&P500 fails to break through that resistance point, then the traders will be exiting here and take their quick profits as this is the only way for them to make profits in a bear cycle by using those Bear Market investing disciplines...
This of course makes for a self-fulifilling sucker rally prophesy and the Fundies are quick to argue this and that the market has then become irrational and running due to the technicals...During Bull market corrections however traders realise this all could be temporary,,but if there is any cyclic reversal doubts lingering in the groups sub-conscious then the traders may view this bull market cycle correction as a much longer event, at least until those doubts are extinguished..which could take many months or longer..

S&P ended Monday @1904--It will be interesting to see if your scenario plays out

[winner69]

On fire today

2000 beckons ------>>>>>>> then on to 2030 an a new HIGH

[Hoop]

On fire today

2000 beckons ------>>>>>>> then on to 2030 an a new HIGH

That scenario Winner is looking increasingly likely..

With the S&P500 at 1942 The technicals have showed resistance break throughs...this indicates that this rally has a good chance of being a genuine rally and not the sucker type ..So far this implies that this correction is more likely another one of the bull market variety...The most significant resistance lines that were broken was the bull bear line 1905/10 and its confirmation line at 1925/30 (dashed orange line)...

Why the v-shaped correction?...These are stampede type actions and can be triggered by any small insignificant (may be unrelated) event(s)...It shows the market had (having) an underlying nervous feeling..Flash corrections can settle the markets anxieties when it can be seen in hindsight that the fear invoked action was an unwarranted and a quick rally fills in the correction..At the moment the start of good earnings news has settled some of those overvalued market anxieties for now...and the complacent feel good factor is returning..

As this market seemed to have reacted with irrational speed (stampede), the Fibonacci (instinct behaviour) indicators become more relevant...The 61.8% fib retracement is at 1945 so care is still needed as 61.8 is a major life number

The tech traders will still be in as they have watched each resistance break...their eyes will now be focused on the next 2 hurdles,, the 1945 Fib then the 1960/70 area...any resistance problems will see these guys take their profits and exit the market and the index will tank..Us plebs knowing where these anxiety index levels (resistance) are, gives us valuable warning sign areas so to be careful, alert and have better information to assess the longer term direction of the market...A bit like road signs on a highway..eh?

Its a day by day thing at the moment...and so far the S&P500 is looking good..