Abstract
Finance is not merely prone to crises, it is shaped by them. Five historical crises show how aspects of today’s financial system originated—and offer lessons for today’s regulators
Nah...abandoned the EMA50 fine tuning idea...the connection indicator didn't trigger "Get out" with the MA50...The 3 day drop was an excellent test for my experimental sentiment Indicator..
S&P500 up for the second day (bottomed intraday yesterday at support 1837)
S&P500 up 20 (+1.08%) to close at 1872..
As there was no major trend breaks, does that indicate the 3 black crows (if it was one?) odds on being a reversal will be up reversal?? rather than down...or the lesser odds of a continuation....I guess time will tell
Hmmm..My correction indicator fired off GET OUT warning fired the very next day I wrote this post...Chart Target price 1790
and just as well this time is different and CAPE is a load of **** .....else little in it for long term 'investors'
I hold when things keep going up and sell when things start going down .... and without making life too complicated with shorting and derivatives and all that sort od stuff readily accept that cash returns are sometimes far better than losing 30% - 50% in major downturns
...anyway, despite large liquidity pump for the past week, the SPX500 unable to manage a close above 1869. As a result, weakness still dominates the market going past the EASTER break.
Kind Regards
Quote - With 46 per cent of the S&P 500 having reported first-quarter results through early Friday morning, overall earnings per share are now seen rising 0.2 per cent from year-ago levels, according to FactSet
With the E not increasing wonder what will happen to market sentiment (the PE) and subsequently to the P
A market 'priced to perfection' has disappointed .....yes?
My mate Hussman reprinted something he wrote in 2001 in this weeks note of his
Even a return to median bull market valuations would be brutal for the most popular tech stocks. We're not even talking about bear market valuations, and we're making the leap of faith, contrary to the evidence, that the quality of current revenues is as high as those generated during the past decade. To illustrate the probable epilogue to the current
bubble, we've calculated price targets for some of the glamour techs, based on current revenues per share, multiplied by the median price/revenue ratio over
the bull market period 1991-1999.
Cisco Systems: $18 3/4 52-week high: $82 / (revenues 2.87/share, median price/revenue ratio 6.53).
Sun Microsystems: $4 1/2 52-week high: $64 / (revenues 5.17/share, median price/revenue ratio 0.88).
Usually writes a load of **** according to Belg but this time he just might be right
Love that phrase THE FUTURE IS NOW - meaning likes of XRO and PEB are priced today what they will be worth in 5 years or so if everything goes to plan. WYN and others I wont mention because even on that basis they are totally overpriced today
Quote - While the May through October period has seen mild gains during major bull markets (i.e. 1950-56 & 1982-97), the overall subpar performance during the months of May through October is noteworthy. Hence the saying, 'sell in May and walk away.'
The chart is somewhat misleading for those that hold for longer periods. I.e. May to Oct may be the best times to buy if you're holding for years.
Buying in a dip in a 5+ year old cyclic bull during a secular bull market cycle using the long term buy and hold strategy is a good strategy as timing the buys aren't going to be a problem effect over a long time period..Belg
but!!!...
Buying the dip in an 5+year old cyclic bull during a secular bear market cycle using the very long term buy and hold strategy is just plain stupid..
Anyway back to the short term
Another record busting high ...onwards and upwards
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Originally Posted by Hoop
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