Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[Valuegrowth]

November should be better than October and September. However, I don’t expect big jump in developed markets until end of this year. Instead, we could see Santa rally and rally in individual stocks. I particularly more bias toward global food related stocks. They are one of the categories which can produce good earnings. On Friday McDonald's Corp. (MCD) gained nearly 3% after the fast-food giant reported better than expected earnings.

So far Both MCD and Microsoft reported better than expected earnings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...osted-by-cloud

Currently (using the monthly candles) we await a bullish outcome in November based on a potential rising three methods.

Attachment 8374
We had the breakout above the previous high during the month of July. We still await the fourth candle (long and green hopefully) to satisfy the requirement of the candle pattern. Current red candles are price coming back to find support at the high of 2015.

Attachment 8373

[Hoop]

thanks for that Hoop. yes all those things will have an impression but maybe Hillary winning is enough??

Would the market already have a Clinton Victory factored in?

[peat]

Yes it has become increasingly likely of a Clinton win over the last few weeks but a factor for the risk could still be there. Brexit surprised.
Also the Fed rate may or may not eventuate, so there are at least two big factors , both of which still has the possibility of surprising.

haha I shouldn't be talking about the FA explanation for a TA pattern which is still developing

[blackcap]

Yes it has become increasingly likely of a Clinton win over the last few weeks but a factor for the risk could still be there. Brexit surprised.
Also the Fed rate may or may not eventuate, so there are at least two big factors , both of which still has the possibility of surprising.

haha I shouldn't be talking about the FA explanation for a TA pattern which is still developing

Peat, I don't know what information you are looking at but a Clinton win has pretty much stayed static in the last 3 weeks, if the money is to be believed. At about a 17% chance give or take 1%. But agree with you that the "brexit" risk is still implied in the market.

[peat]

Peat, I don't know what information you are looking at but a Clinton win has pretty much stayed static in the last 3 weeks, if the money is to be believed. At about a 17% chance give or take 1%. But agree with you that the "brexit" risk is still implied in the market.

its not too important but for the sake of face I quote from Investopaedia

During the primary season, Trump consistently led in the polls. After the conventions, Clinton opened a wide lead, but by the end of September, the race looked neck and neck again.

Trump's October surprise – the release of a tape from 2005 in which he claimed to be able to assault women sexually with impunity because he's famous – brought him back to lows he hasn't seen since the end of the Democratic convention in July, and his debate performances have not been able to halt his slide in the polls.


Read more: Donald Trump for President: What Are the Chances? | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#ixzz4Nsk32GBu
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook

[blackcap]

its not too important but for the sake of face I quote from Investopaedia

During the primary season, Trump consistently led in the polls. After the conventions, Clinton opened a wide lead, but by the end of September, the race looked neck and neck again.

Trump's October surprise – the release of a tape from 2005 in which he claimed to be able to assault women sexually with impunity because he's famous – brought him back to lows he hasn't seen since the end of the Democratic convention in July, and his debate performances have not been able to halt his slide in the polls.


Read more: Donald Trump for President: What Are the Chances? | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#ixzz4Nsk32GBu
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook

Fair call, I understand that, and the polls probably are sliding, although he is more robust in the electoral ones that matter. Still not there but close enough to have a shot. What I am saying is that any market moves over the last 2 weeks or so should not have been because of an increased Clinton win because well there has not been an increased winning chance for Clinton in the last 2 weeks. Anyhow its a moot point. Because Clinton is almost guaranteed to win, there will be more turmoil if she does not one thinks than if she does.

[kiora]

Goldman Sachs cuts its forecast for S&P 500 earnings
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldma...115840969.html
S&P 500 (^GSPC) price-earnings multiples could expand even further
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gutsy-...123829662.html

[Hoop]

Opening quote from Factset Newsletter "...Earnings Scorecard: As of today (with 23% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings for Q3 2016),
78% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 65%of S&P 500 companies
have reported sales above the mean estimate...."

Factset Earnings Insight Newsletter 21st October 2016 (PDF) 27 pages

[winner69]

Opening quote from Factset Newsletter "...Earnings Scorecard: As of today (with 23% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings for Q3 2016),
78% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 65%of S&P 500 companies
have reported sales above the mean estimate...."

Factset Earnings Insight Newsletter 21st October 2016 (PDF) 27 pages

Always good stuff on Factset

Even that comment that was will probably be the 6th quarter in a row of eps decline

Earning recession eh

And more downward eps revisions than up ones as well

[Hoop]

Always good stuff on Factset

Even that comment that was will probably be the 6th quarter in a row of eps decline

Earning recession eh

And more downward eps revisions than up ones as well

Yep..early days yet but these more downward revisions than upward disclosures goes against the analysts forecasts of a 2017 earnings recovery..Also that piece on Apple was interesting..such a large company that its fortunes can dictate the whole S&P500 market....scary