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[ananda77]

...the Fed yes, its their policy since 2008 and it has not changed so far. The Fed will not let this market go unless they have achieved economic recovery.
... and that's the point: economic recovery in the age of finance capitalism means something completely different than under industrial capitalism.

kind regards

[Hoop]

Yes Ananda...the monetary policy way ...The Economy has recovered years ago..The leading sectors have been booming for years now and they just have to stay booming for several years yet to allow that trickle down effect to enter into the consumers pocket which is theoretically always the lagging sector of any Economy..

Often by the time the consumers finally get the tickle down rewards the leading sectors of the economy have past their peak and "black clouds" are starting to appear...so one could say that the economy will never be exactly right, or at best, right for a brief period in time only...

We have see different disciplines (usually political) trying to "cheat the cycle" by kick starting an economy by prematurely throwing money into the lagging end, it may give a quick short term consumer boost but that method has proved to produce a longer term "pay the piper" stifling effect. Australia is presently a good example of that with the money spent from its mining boom.. ..

Remember that in USA the destructive GFC evaporated a huge amount of public money..life savings, Real Estate, 401K funds etc..So the Monetary way is that the USA will need an extra long boom to replenish the public's financial hole and the FED is currently manipulating the hell out of the leading sectors to keep that boom running at full steam...

So far you have to give the FED 10 out of 10 for bubble management..It has so far created and is achieving its goals with artificial adjustments to minimising those associated risks....

Theoretically to prevent an economic collapse one creates an artificial bubble(s) (e.g very cheap credit)...and, I read somewhere in a past FED report that Bubble management can become hard to control if continued for too long as risk becomes harder to contain.

I have this feeling the FED never expected this to take so long..

I would love to go back in time to 2009 and ask Uncle Ben "how long does the FED expect it would be before consumer spending reached it's peak" (full economic cycle)..Would his answer been, "before 2014" ?

[ananda77]

Yes Ananda...the monetary policy way ...The Economy has recovered years ago..The leading sectors have been booming for years now and they just have to stay booming for several years yet to allow that trickle down effect to enter into the consumers pocket which is theoretically always the lagging sector of any Economy..

Often by the time the consumers finally get the tickle down rewards the leading sectors of the economy have past their peak and "black clouds" are starting to appear...so one could say that the economy will never be exactly right, or at best, right for a brief period in time only...

We have see different disciplines (usually political) trying to "cheat the cycle" by kick starting an economy by prematurely throwing money into the lagging end, it may give a quick short term consumer boost but that method has proved to produce a longer term "pay the piper" stifling effect. Australia is presently a good example of that with the money spent from its mining boom.. ..

Remember that in USA the destructive GFC evaporated a huge amount of public money..life savings, Real Estate, 401K funds etc..So the Monetary way is that the USA will need an extra long boom to replenish the public's financial hole and the FED is currently manipulating the hell out of the leading sectors to keep that boom running at full steam...

So far you have to give the FED 10 out of 10 for bubble management..It has so far created and is achieving its goals with artificial adjustments to minimising those associated risks....

Theoretically to prevent an economic collapse one creates an artificial bubble(s) (e.g very cheap credit)...and, I read somewhere in a past FED report that Bubble management can become hard to control if continued for too long as risk becomes harder to contain.

I have this feeling the FED never expected this to take so long..

I would love to go back in time to 2009 and ask Uncle Ben "how long does the FED expect it would be before consumer spending reached it's peak" (full economic cycle)..Would his answer been, "before 2014" ?

...yes right. However, why should bubble management be hard to control, if there are a seemingly endless number of people, industries or governments willing to dive ever deeper into debt?
-Greed sticks- and the world is a large place to be financially engineered
kind regards

[skid]

The eternal (managed)bubble---That would be a first..(granted you can get alot more mileage out of debt than some other kinds of bubbles)

Meanwhile ,the price of oil is still falling ,but the Stock Market s rallying from a few words from the fed..

[ananda77]

The eternal (managed)bubble---That would be a first..(granted you can get alot more mileage out of debt than some other kinds of bubbles)

Meanwhile ,the price of oil is still falling ,but the Stock Market s rallying from a few words from the fed..

...and with no inhibiting nonense like a 'gold standard', the ONLY limit in money creation is inflation - and in an economy riddled with debt that's easy to manage.
... debt limits are naturally the amount of disposable income/profit available for debt service, which it is the banks job to control this kind of equilibrium. But again, the world is a big place with lots of eager people keen on upward mobility

kind regards

[ananda77]

...am trading now expecting a 10% correct for the US market (finally at last) and the 5000 mark for the Aus 200 (no time mucking around at last).
Building the Asian region
kind regards and be successful

[winner69]

4 straight down days - first time in 87 years

Good thing is tomorrow a certainty to be an up day then

http://kimblecharting.tumblr.com/pos...-end-today-the

[boring]

That's interesting KW, I'm doing the absolute opposite from you.

I'm not sure what style of trading/investing you do, but I guess the fact that I'm a fundamental long-term contrarian investor makes me look more to the ASX for value at the moment.

I was building up and accumulating my US positions from late 2009 until end of last year. I always make sure that I'm a net buyer of stocks throughout all market conditions. I just allocate my investment capital towards markets and companies I think have good fundamental value. During 2014, I found it difficult to find stocks (in my preferred sectors) that were reasonably valued from a historical perspective. Certainly from a dividend yield perspective anyway. For growth stocks, (that pay no dividends) I really have no financial model that tells me if a stock is cheap, whereas I do for dividend paying stocks. Hence, that's why I find ASX stocks a bit cheaper at the moment. Although it's still slim pickings because the majority of companies on the ASX are in sectors I don't like (resource & mining, banking & retail).

Totally agree that the US economy is on a roll. It's the only major Western economy that is on the upswing. Having come back from a 3-month visit there just recently, you can see how much more frenetic it is in the malls. Another good mainstream indicator is when Disney (DIS) increase its entry fees to the theme parks and there is still increasing attendance figures. If ever there was a discretionary purchase, it's a trip to a Disney theme park.

I do keep a separate satellite fund (10% of my total portfolio) for speculative growth stocks. That way I can satisfy my psychological need to take a punt on stocks with the potential for huge capital gains without permanent injury to my financial well-being. However, these stocks tend to be ones I hold for a very long time to allow by business thesis to play out (e.g. TRIP, BIDU, Z etc). The technicals on some of these stocks look awful (i.e. downtrend, trading under 200-day SMA), but I'm still holding because my business thesis about these companies remains intact. I generally don't use technicals. In 25 years of investing, never have. I'm a business guy.

[boring]

Looks like I'm not the only one who uses the "crowdedness" at the Disney Theme Parks as a Main Street indicator on the health of the US economy.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/walt...124910239.html

As a long time DIS shareholder (over 15 years), I usually like to visit the theme park area to get a sense of how well they are doing. I don't always to go in to the theme park itself (an expensive proposition), but I at least pop in to the retail and restaurant precinct in Downtown Disney where's it's free to visit. Usually if Downtown Disney is crowded and humming, so is the theme park. When I was there about 6 weeks ago, it was a frenzy at the cash registers.

[winner69]

Hoop - I reckon a new high beckons next week with a number greater jan 2100

Log periodic advances working well