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  1. #1861
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    ...comparing today’s markets to Queen’s classic “Bohemian Rhapsody.”...like the song says, “Nothing really matters” to whoever is buying stocks these days. They just keep buying and pushing prices higher.
    "Just gotta get out, just gotta get right outta here!"
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #1862
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    "Just gotta get out, just gotta get right outta here!"
    Why the Peat..Bohemian Rhapsody is awesome

    Never sell in an up trend they say, and you shouldn't...This very old bull (140 human years old) is now living on in Biblical proportions (length of age, not catastrophes).

    What is the future like??... Maybe we have to start thinking the impossible..think Noah and his family of long livers. When one starts reciting this sort of biblical stuff, it goes to show just how unusually and crazily long this current cyclical Bull market cycle is and it could go on for a long while yet ..eh?......And..against all negative media and technical/fundamental flashing red lights that started to happen a few of years ago we still gotta stay "in" to reap any of the Bull's rewards... From hindsight, leaving the Bull Market using sound logic and common-sense when it got fundamentally overpriced a couple of years ago would have been a big mistake...

    At this late stage of the Bull Market Cycle it is very important we start learning or now know all about Fundamentals and the way it operates within a micro and a wider (macro) economic network (Share market Physics)....also using Technical market behaviours to alert us...Put all this together and we have the tools to activate contingency plans so not suffer denial due to market exuberance when the bulls death does finally arrive..
    Last edited by Hoop; 14-06-2017 at 12:31 PM.

  3. #1863
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    V interesting thread to come across.

    Have never delved into equities / exposure outside of NZ/AUS. Last December I was bearish on international equities and the subsequent flow down effects, but there seems to have been nothing stopping markets. Now I find myself somewhat tempted in international exposure given the stellar run of late but always reluctant when the market continues to run ahead of itself for so long...

    Apologies if all this has already been covered (new to this thread), but what I have a few questions for learning purposes more than anything:

    1) thoughts on ETFs, particularly in somewhere like Europe (appreciate they have risen back a bit but potential for them to move further given PE comparison to the US and comparative growth) ?

    2) how do you see a correction playing out if one is to come? Does one big event trigger a built-up re adjustment, or does the smart money say enough is enough and slowly withdraw?

    3) how big do you see the effect in NZ should international markets run out of steam?

    Appreciate not easy questions- interested in any views! Just trying to tap some better minds than mine . Cheers

  4. #1864
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    I'll get back to you Dela 47 when I have time..Probably off topic but somewhat related..(sort of)

    I'm was on the ANZ securities when I saw your post (I have 2 monitors)..For people who wonder what ETF's are here's the ANZ securities web page for NZ ETF's trading on the NZX..

  5. #1865
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    Quote Originally Posted by dela47 View Post
    V interesting thread to come across.

    Have never delved into equities / exposure outside of NZ/AUS. Last December I was bearish on international equities and the subsequent flow down effects, but there seems to have been nothing stopping markets. Now I find myself somewhat tempted in international exposure given the stellar run of late but always reluctant when the market continues to run ahead of itself for so long...

    Apologies if all this has already been covered (new to this thread), but what I have a few questions for learning purposes more than anything:

    1) thoughts on ETFs, particularly in somewhere like Europe (appreciate they have risen back a bit but potential for them to move further given PE comparison to the US and comparative growth) ?

    2) how do you see a correction playing out if one is to come? Does one big event trigger a built-up re adjustment, or does the smart money say enough is enough and slowly withdraw?

    3) how big do you see the effect in NZ should international markets run out of steam?

    Appreciate not easy questions- interested in any views! Just trying to tap some better minds than mine . Cheers
    My amateur opinion is that ETFs are a good way to get exposure to an international market unless you've got the means to buy a diversified overseas portfolio. Their has already been quite a movement from US to European stocks over the past few months, but given that the european markets are expected to see greater growth than US markets over the next few years makes it still worthwhile considering eg euf.nz smartshare.

    Personally I think there is a correction looming but who knows whether it will be tomorrow or 5-10yrs time. Unless economic political conditions change significantly I think it might be just a small 10-20% dip (I could well be very wrong though!). I'm holding a larger than normal cash reserve at the moment anticipating buying in during a correction.

    If if there's a global withdrawal then the NZ stock market is sure to follow in similar numbers i think.

    I hold multiple US stocks and have a 60/40 split between US and NZ markets. I'm also looking at buying into an european etf at the 'right' time.

  6. #1866
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    Default Bubble.nah,more like a mega-size hot air balloon with central bankers at the controls

    I read Jarad Dillion's email this morning (The 10th Man)..titled The Everything Bubble. (see webpage version) I realised it's been a little while since I last check CAPE.Last time I looked it was 27.4 well into market crash territory..I assumed with good earnings increases and a modest Wall St rise the CAPE should be about the same or fractionally less with a slight trending down (slight derisking)..So I was surprised to see at 29.82!!!...That is scary high..to the point of extreme....Extremes are the result of stupid actions.. and I too have bad feelings ...I've had them for about 2 years now since the CAPE reached the crash zone (25)...since then the market has been like a bug flying around the expressway dodging thousands of windscreens up to now) ...

    There is a very long chart argument too..this Bull Market Cycle has had a very steep uptrend for years now and showing the exact same chart pattern behaviour as Bull market cycles before it..a failed attempted cyclic reversal about 80% up the chart mountain..so with this in mind using repeated historic pattern behaviour it looks like we are closing in now to the top..

    The S&P500 chart below is copied from the 10th man webpage link above...
    Image_1_20170622_10th.jpg

    The chart below show the history of CAPE note the year 1929 which had asimilar CAPE reading...so maybe Jarad Dillian comment.." it will probably be the fastest downturn in history, owing to the degree of leverage and speculation....may not be as farfetched as it sounds

    canvas.jpg..
    Last edited by Hoop; Yesterday at 12:07 PM.

  7. #1867
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    That Jared is a pretty good read eh Hoop

    This could be ominious -

    it will probably be the fastest downturn in history, owing to the degree of leverage and speculation. Proper preparation prevents poor performance


    That article on Secular Stagnation is quite interesting
    Last edited by winner69; Yesterday at 12:21 PM.
    "When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself"

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