Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[kiora]

Is S&P 500 the little train that could make it past 1900,Williams % indicating over sold and VIX dropping?

[Hoop]

Is S&P 500 the little train that could make it past 1900,Williams % indicating over sold and VIX dropping?

Yeah...past 1900 to close at 1920...but I'm bearish because the Dead Cat Bounce pattern is now a reality and chances are there is a 75% probability (Bulkowski) the S&P500 will drop to form a new low <1867....

Kiora .. William %R oscillator will swing on any sort of rally, whether it being a relief, sucker, or resumption...For Example during the 2008 - 2009 bear market cycle the William %R was in oversold territory a lot of the time with some periods lasting for a month or more...during the bear cycle back then, any William %R buy signal had to viewed as a caution because even a leveling out period after a wave down got the Williams excited and triggered buy signals

Also..the VIX...It is a forward volatility indicator but it has been dramatised by the media as a fear index but this is not its true indicative function..The media is fixated on the VIX because they refer back to only the 2008-2009 severe Bear market cycle where the VIX went extreme...but looking further back to the previous severe bear market cycle 2001-2002 the VIX had a much calmer time and in actual fact there was not much difference between the 1998 - 1999 Bull period compared with 2001-2002 Bear....But in saying this.. there is a correlation as extended periods of calmest seem to occur during a Bull Market cycle...

The monthly chart below shows S&P500 in green and VIX in black

[kiora]

Yeah...past 1900 to close at 1920...but I'm bearish because the Dead Cat Bounce pattern is now a reality and chances are there is a 75% probability (Bulkowski) the S&P500 will drop to form a new low <1867....

Kiora .. William %R oscillator will swing on any sort of rally, whether it being a relief, sucker, or resumption...For Example during the 2008 - 2009 bear market cycle the William %R was in oversold territory a lot of the time with some periods lasting for a month or more...during the bear cycle back then, any William %R buy signal had to viewed as a caution because even a leveling out period after a wave down got the Williams excited and triggered buy signals

Also..the VIX...It is a forward volatility indicator but it has been dramatised by the media as a fear index but this is not its true indicative function..The media is fixated on the VIX because they refer back to only the 2008-2009 severe Bear market cycle where the VIX went extreme...but looking further back to the previous severe bear market cycle 2001-2002 the VIX had a much calmer time and in actual fact there was not much difference between the 1998 - 1999 Bull period compared with 2001-2002 Bear....But in saying this.. there is a correlation as extended periods of calmest seem to occur during a Bull Market cycle...

The monthly chart below shows S&P500 in green and VIX in black

Thanks Hoop.I'm still learning after all these years

[kiora]

Hmm,where will it end up this year>
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-s...135031629.html

[Baa_Baa]

An encouraging week for the perma-bulls, nice updraft this week, though nipped in the bud at the 50% not-a-fib retrace. More interesting will be whether there is a follow-on to the 61.8% fib which co-incides now with the 50EMA.

So the way I see it is there is stern resistance around 16750 and massive overhead resistance in the 17200-17400 range. Break that, and stay above, and you could say the Bear is dead, but keep an eye out for the steps in between. Which if to the downside is 16000 support, horizontal and rising ST trend line.

All the indicators shown suggest an upside test in the short term.

Attachment 7636

jmho as always, dyodd
BAA

[Baa_Baa]

That previous chart was the DOW. Here's the SP500, however my commentary is very similar except the next test is the 38.2% fib. The 50EMA is very close to the 50% not-a-fib providing overhead resistance. Again though, all indicators shown suggest an upside test to come in the short term.

Attachment 7638

[Valuegrowth]

Goldman’s new target is 2000.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/29/going...or-sp-500.html

Going down: Goldman cuts forecasts for S&P 500

[frostyboy]

Just went short at 1990,


1) Transports haven't rallied with the market
2) Volume is mediocre and break outs on the ftse aren't really confirmed etc
3) Rally has lasted a few days and due for a breather.

Main reason is more downside profit amount compared to upside profit.

[Hoop]

Great drop to well below the channel (1976) after you went short.....very sharp and short lived...Did you exit before it climbed back up through and ended above the channel (1996)

[frostyboy]

Great drop to well below the channel (1976) after you went short.....very sharp and short lived...Did you exit before it climbed back up through and ended above the channel (1996)

I haven't handled this trade well, I should have took some profits earlier. When the S&P500 hit the 50 day moving average at 1998 I was still short my original 1990. I covered half at 1982 after the daily low at 1977, so I'm still a bit short.

If I didn't have this position I would only go short if futures pre New York open were clear north of 2,000