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  1. #1831
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    A carry on sentiment theme from my last post above..

    Another Seeking Alpha article written this time by Erin Parnell titled The Greatest Fool is Here. He mentions the Market Sentiment of the Equity Markets (inferring the S&P500) and uses the Investor Behaviour Project at Yale University under the direction of Professor Robert Shiller the four different stock market confidence indices for the United States charts as references. His Article contains some handy investor tool (advanced charts) links as well

    Summary
    Investors think stocks are expensive.

    Yet investors are as optimistic about future returns as they have ever been.
    This is a combination that does not end well at all.
    The Greatest Fool is here.
    A notable divergence is taking place in the U.S. stock market. A growing percentage of investors believe that stock valuations are too high. Yet a record number of investors also think that stock prices will be higher one year from now. Such is a toxic brew of sentiment that potentially does not end well.


    -------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by Hoop; 14-03-2017 at 10:58 AM.

  2. #1832
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    Default Toppy signals in the short term

    Hourly showing a bearish gartley over the last couple of weeks.
    I see Goldman Sachs also bearish short term, so I'm in good squidlike company.

    SP500Gartley17-3-2017Hourly.JPG

    Discl. No specific position.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #1833
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    Hourly showing a bearish gartley over the last couple of weeks.
    I see Goldman Sachs also bearish short term, so I'm in good squidlike company.

    Discl. No specific position.
    The Gartley prediction is playing out..Short term support broke today....still above the MA50 (2326)..however a lower low (now) has followed a lower high, therefore a short/medium term downtrend has commenced..

  4. #1834
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    Jared thinks something maybe going on -

    @dailydirtnap: I've seen some suggest today's move was just noise.
    1+ standard deviation moves are not statistical noise. They happen for a reason.
    "When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself"

  5. #1835
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    its just a small pattern so it doesnt predict anything outside of its own scale. so maybe 2300 or (as Angus Geddes - of Fat Prophets - mentioned in his email today) maybe 2250 would be the target.
    Last edited by peat; 22-03-2017 at 04:59 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #1836
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    S&P500 earnings for Q1 likely to 10% up on last year (Factset)

    That's good

    S&P500 might reach 2500 during Q2

    No worries
    "When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself"

  7. #1837
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    so the bearish gartley (yellow) played out and took us to the 1.618 extension at 2319 (lowest red dotted line). Now we have a bullish gartley playing out (purple) which could take us back up to 2414
    SP50012-03-2017.JPG
    Last edited by peat; 19-04-2017 at 10:59 PM. Reason: 2314 was a typo I meant 2414
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  8. #1838
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    The bullish engulfing candle did it for me and went long on the pullback as you can see - stops and take profits visible

    SP500Daily21042017.JPG
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  9. #1839
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    mind the gap.
    SP50024-04-2017.JPG
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #1840
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    Default Lies. lies. more lies, and statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    mind the gap.
    Gaps are fascinating..eh, Peat...a science on it's own..

    A important question is what type of gap is this one?.. as there are many types..Chances of gap-filling are a lot higher with certain types of gaps than others..

    It seems this gap is of the breakaway type which suggests a lower chance of being filled.
    The breakaways are usually the result from a break out of a chart pattern....This breakaway gap was from a descending triangle pattern breakout..

    Descending triangles are generally viewed by many investors as bearish patterns, however it depends on the trend into the start of the pattern...If the trend is upward into the start of the descending triangle then the pattern is viewed more as a continuation pattern with a 73% chance of a breakout to the upside (continuing trend)..When this upside break happens it is powerful action and statistically very reliable (83% chance of reaching its target price) ..see Bulkowski's pattern site.

    The generalised target price measure of this breakout is 2355 + (2400-2330) = 2425....Bulkowski's TP value is less 2355 + [ (2400 - 2330) x 84%] = 2414 ..In other words using Bulkowski's TP measure the S&P500 index has an 84% chance of reaching 2414 which just happens to be above the primary resistance break out (2400) to form a new record high..
    Anything in the way can affect the TP's chances..the resistances at 2390 and 2400 should be watched...

    Gap filling....Can be an anxious time....An upward breakout can be followed by a throwback to test the breakout area before it moves up again..If this happens (37% chance..Bulkowski) it will fill the gap but remain medium term bullish...

    Is it a false breakout (bull trap)?...Chances of a breakeven or negative result is 7% (Bulkowski)
    Last edited by Hoop; 25-04-2017 at 01:19 PM.

  11. #1841
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    The generalised target price measure of this breakout is 2355 + (2400-2330) = 2425....Bulkowski's TP value is less 2355 + [ (2400 - 2330) x 84%] = 2414 ..

    ..the resistances at 2390 and 2400 should be watched...

    Gap filling....Can be an anxious time....An upward breakout can be followed by a throwback to test the breakout area before it moves up again..If this happens (37% chance..Bulkowski) it will fill the gap but remain medium term bullish...

    Is it a false breakout (bull trap)?...Chances of a breakeven or negative result is 7% (Bulkowski)
    At 2390 TP I must be leaving some for Bhudda.
    It wont take me out yet if the gap fills, but I'm not really thinking it will pull back that far - for some reason I also saw this as a high conviction play.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  12. #1842
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    At 2390 TP I must be leaving some for Bhudda.
    It wont take me out yet if the gap fills, but I'm not really thinking it will pull back that far - for some reason I also saw this as a high conviction play.

    Yep it seems a high conviction play..

    Your quote..."..so the bearish gartley (yellow) played out and took us to the 1.618 extension at 2319 (lowest red dotted line). Now we have a bullish gartley playing out (purple) which could take us back up to 2414..."

    Interesting the two chart pattern disciplines (harmonics and simple price chart pattern) both feature TP of 2414.

  13. #1843
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    2390 TP hit , so I'm happy if anyone wants the remaining 24 points I left

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