Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[winner69]

When is the crash happening? getting impatient.

They told Janet to make sure nothing too drastic happens until after the election ....and she is doing a sterling job up to now

[Valuegrowth]

They told Janet to make sure nothing too drastic happens until after the election ....and she is doing a sterling job up to now

As I said before Madam Janet is smart and intelligent. She and her team know how to take decisions according to the situation.

[winner69]

Q2 one month in and analyst EPS forecasts for the quarter already being lowered

declining EPS - rising market - good stuff eh

[Valuegrowth]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/29/inve...l-market-ever/

New milestone for bull market: 2nd longest ever

[winner69]

Gaynor on share buybacks.

In USA a practice rife for the wrong reasons?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11631082

[noodles]

With the S&P500 at key support levels (2040), this might be the catalyst for those levels to be broken.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...policy-outlook

[Hoop]

With the S&P500 at key support levels (2040), this might be the catalyst for those levels to be broken.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...policy-outlook

Hmmm Yes Noodles it could be a major confirmation point...
I haven't seen this mentioned in the media but on closing prices Friday both my charts (stockcharts & Incredible charts) show a marginal neck break which means a head & shoulder pattern may have formed**...It's a close thing so keep in mind the margin of error thing because if one uses intraday highs and lows instead of closing prices then the H&S pattern is not yet formed...

H&S patterns have an outcome failure rate (falls of <-5%) of 4%...

If there a established H&S pattern then the investor has to work out whether the S&P500 is currently in a very long Stage 1 Bear Cycle or still in a very long trading patterned Bull cycle (sleeping Bull)..the probabilities differ a lot..
Bulkowski Book.. Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns..has this H&S pattern statistical data table (designed for the S&P500)

Decline (%).... Bull Market.... Bear Market
5 (breakeven)......4%.............. 1%
10 .................. 15%.............. 5%
15 ...................35% .............17%
20 .................. 54% .............33%
25 ...................68% .............49%
30....................78% .............63%
35 ...................86% ............ 71%
50 .................. 97% ............ 93%
75 ................ 100% ........... 100%
Over 75...........100% ........... 100%

My opinion has not changed since August 2015 so I still think Wall St is in Stage 1 cyclic Bear Market cycle...therefore...if a H&S pattern has formed beyond the margin of error there's a 50/50 chance this next fall will be bad, at least -25%.
If I'm wrong and the S&P500 is still currently in a cyclic bull cycle then a 50/50 chance fall of -19% or less keeps the drop as another bull market correction and the longer term roller coaster for the Dipster Investor continues in an upward trend

The H&S pattern is not the only bearish event in town...EMA50 has been broken (also in margin of error) and a host of TA medium term indicators...also the Bollinger Bands have released their squeeze with the S&P500 trend reverting downwards
This is not good news for the 2040 bull/bear support line as these indicators show this support is currently enduring immense S&P index downward pressure...

All in all ...The S&P500 is currently at the TA cliff edge..There has to be some exceptionally good news to entice the large buyers back, otherwise another down day will see major TA damage occurring..

** The DOW is also confirming a S&P500 H&S pattern

Note:..My sentiment indicators I post on this thread has fired 3 of 4 warnings signalling Caution (need all 4 to trigger "get out" signal)..The last time my sentiment indicator fired all 4 "get out" warnings was back in early December 2015..it was also the last time the caution warnings fired off.

[Entrep]

Thanks for the comprehensive update Hoop, appreciate it!

[kiora]

Hmmm Yes Noodles it could be a major confirmation point...
I haven't seen this mentioned in the media but on closing prices Friday both my charts (stockcharts & Incredible charts) show a marginal neck break which means a head & shoulder pattern may have formed**...It's a close thing so keep in mind the margin of error thing because if one uses intraday highs and lows instead of closing prices then the H&S pattern is not yet formed...

H&S patterns have an outcome failure rate (falls of <-5%) of 4%...

If there a established H&S pattern then the investor has to work out whether the S&P500 is currently in a very long Stage 1 Bear Cycle or still in a very long trading patterned Bull cycle (sleeping Bull)..the probabilities differ a lot..
Bulkowski Book.. Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns..has this H&S pattern statistical data table (designed for the S&P500)

Decline (%).... Bull Market.... Bear Market
5 (breakeven)......4%.............. 1%
10 .................. 15%.............. 5%
15 ...................35% .............17%
20 .................. 54% .............33%
25 ...................68% .............49%
30....................78% .............63%
35 ...................86% ............ 71%
50 .................. 97% ............ 93%
75 ................ 100% ........... 100%
Over 75...........100% ........... 100%

My opinion has not changed since August 2015 so I still think Wall St is in Stage 1 cyclic Bear Market cycle...therefore...if a H&S pattern has formed beyond the margin of error there's a 50/50 chance this next fall will be bad, at least -25%.
If I'm wrong and the S&P500 is still currently in a cyclic bull cycle then a 50/50 chance fall of -19% or less keeps the drop as another bull market correction and the longer term roller coaster for the Dipster Investor continues in an upward trend

The H&S pattern is not the only bearish event in town...EMA50 has been broken (also in margin of error) and a host of TA medium term indicators...also the Bollinger Bands have released their squeeze with the S&P500 trend reverting downwards
This is not good news for the 2040 bull/bear support line as these indicators show this support is currently enduring immense S&P index downward pressure...

All in all ...The S&P500 is currently at the TA cliff edge..There has to be some exceptionally good news to entice the large buyers back, otherwise another down day will see major TA damage occurring..

** The DOW is also confirming a S&P500 H&S pattern

Note:..My sentiment indicators I post on this thread has fired 3 of 4 warnings signalling Caution (need all 4 to trigger "get out" signal)..The last time my sentiment indicator fired all 4 "get out" warnings was back in early December 2015..it was also the last time the caution warnings fired off.

Thanks for the warning Hoop

[Hoop]

Hmmm Yes Noodles it could be a major confirmation point...
I haven't seen this mentioned in the media but on closing prices Friday both my charts (stockcharts & Incredible charts) show a marginal neck break which means a head & shoulder pattern may have formed**...It's a close thing so keep in mind the margin of error thing because if one uses intraday highs and lows instead of closing prices then the H&S pattern is not yet formed..........................

..............................This is not good news for the 2040 bull/bear support line as these indicators show this support is currently enduring immense S&P index downward pressure...

All in all ...The S&P500 is currently at the TA cliff edge..There has to be some exceptionally good news to entice the large buyers back, otherwise another down day will see major TA damage occurring..

** The DOW is also confirming a S&P500 H&S pattern

Note:..My sentiment indicators I post on this thread has fired 3 of 4 warnings signalling Caution (need all 4 to trigger "get out" signal)..The last time my sentiment indicator fired all 4 "get out" warnings was back in early December 2015..it was also the last time the caution warnings fired off.

Wall St took a step back from the cliff edge... up about 1% at closing..that puts the H&S pattern in doubt for the time being...