Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 February 2013-

http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...moving along, the index traded past the 7 December 2007 wkly High *1510.63 with yesterday's High *1514.41, on way to take out the wkly 14 December 2007 *1523.57 as the next upside target ahead - as the market has been trading higher, availability of stocks has declined to the extend that only a pullback can provide the logic for the market - currently testing trend line support *1494_1500 (drawn off the 8 January 2013 Low *1454.63)

http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...long trending Fed. liquidity_institutional investors_foreign liquidity inflows have supported the advance at very high levels and as long as inflow levels remain above support, the market will extend into new all time Highs above the 5 October 2007 wkly High *1576.09

...for the time being, a sideways correction above the 21-dsma current *1484.54 will improve the availabilty of stock - however improbable, a decisive break below the 21-dsma would indicate further weakness ahead and challenge the continuation of the current bullish advance

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 February 2013-

...maybe-maybe not the market prepares for an exhaustive, violent up-move to hit against the October 2007 wkly High *1576.09
...however. at this stage, the market definitely not a bargain and risks are very high for a corrective move

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Last warning post #1291 23rd October 2012

Warning..... using my experimental NYA200r indicator (one day out of date).
It needs all 3 red arrows to forecast a correction...so far two have fired red on the NYA200r chart


SP500 tested and bounced off its 1500 (1497/8 ish) short term support intraday today (21 feb)..Closed at 1502..Chartwise the SP500 is still intact, no breaks yet.

Results so far with this experiment shows very accurate sell warning just before the decline starts (recorded only one failure so far)...however the buy back in signals are late.

[ananda77]

...after the 2008 spx500 Low. (2 standard definitions below long running trend), price action now most likely testing the 15-yr long running trend line just above the *1481 level - returning below the line confirmed will introduce some violent down side price moves - watch out!!!!
...on the flip side, hitting past *1530 confirmed, will see new all time highs ahead

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Two weeks since my last orange warning....not red yet
Has the warning past with the S&P still rising.....NO its still there.... the third indicator is in suspended animation ...It needs all 3 red arrows to forecast a correction...so far two
have fired red on the NYA200r chart

SP500 broke its 1498 short term support and fell, tested and bounced off the more important 1475 medium term support ....Chartwise the SP500 is still intact, no breaks yet.




Results so far with this experiment shows very accurate sell warning just before the decline starts (recorded only one failure so far)...however the buy back in signals are late.

[winner69]

Bit more to yet

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20130313.htm?T

[Hoop]

Bit more to yet

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20130313.htm?T

Interesting bull cycle comparisions Winner.....I've noticed in my readings that there is often a large sudden correction just before the end of the bull cycle....it recovers quickly
and rises to form a new high (The last) but not as high as those other rallies in the same bull cycle..it should disappoint but the Euphoria and optimism of the booming economy
everyone assumes its only a pause in the new rise up ...
This fools many into thinking that the party is far from over.
I was pleased to see that the chart of the day showed this reoccurring event very clearly



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Still in Warning caution stage.

My post post 8th March) showed 2 red out of 3... we waited for the 3rd shoe to drop and when it did the other two red indicators turned blue then red and orange (neutral)
As of the 28th March the Warning bells of 3 clear red arrow breaks still haven't appeared together....Note: It may be showing the edge of the cliff stuff on the NYA200r..yet
the S&P Chart is showing no signs of reversals nor break downs.......Hmmmm .interesting!!!

EDIT: 2/4/2013..On the chart notice the lowering Volume trend.

[winner69]

JUST AS WELL THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT - ELSE CARNAGE - BUT NO WORRIES THIS TIME

from our mate Hussman who has been talking like this for years -

Overvalued, overbought, overbullish. When in history have we seen the Shiller P/E (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings) above 23, the S&P 500 over 60% above its 4-year low and 10% above its 52-week average, with investment advisory bears below 20% for at least two weeks running? Three times: the April 2010 peak, the March-May 2011 peak – both followed by corrections approaching 20% – and today. Even if one ignores the historical evidence suggesting the potential for significant bear market losses over the next couple of years, speculators should be aware that present conditions have been hostile even in the context of the recent bull market advance.

[winner69]

OMG just read the rest of the article ...he reckons back to 2009 levels ... JUST AS WELL THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT EH

Haussmann went on to say this -

We strongly expect the ending of the present market cycle to wipe out the majority of market gains since 2009 (even a standard, run-of-the mill bear market wipes out more than half of the preceding bull market gain). We already know that the market is strenously overvalued, overbought, and overbullish. We know that these conditions have historically made trend-following measures unreliable. What we don’t know is precisely when today's compressed and complacent risk premiums will crawl or spike higher, and one thing we’ve learned from testing hundreds of investment methods over a century of data is that many approaches that perform beautifully over the long-term would often have felt intolerable at a day-to-day resolution. To some extent, that’s the problem with much of the research and evidence that we’ve presented involving long-term data.

[winner69]

Echoes back to the great depression ...

jeez cheer up belg ... this time its different

Like the governments the world over are stealing depositers money ... in Cyprus they just openly steal it .... places liek UK and USA are more sophisticated and subtle and the punters don't notice their savings slowly eroding from things like QE etc - theft in a more subtle way