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11-05-2013, 11:04 AM
#1151
So far correction off 1635 has been very shallow with good support above 1620 - at this stage 1600 appears almost optimistic
...shallow does not do much to wear off long term accumulated excess (overbought) but that's maybe the Fed is prepared to give due to the wealth effect operative
...anyway, accumulating insurance above 1635 since if one does not made it so far....
Kind Regards
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02-06-2013, 06:04 PM
#1152
Interesting view of 'sideways markets'
You'll love it hoops
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outs...e-we-there-yet
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02-06-2013, 08:03 PM
#1153
Originally Posted by winner69
Yeah Winner I did like it....His thinking methodology is similar to mine.
I wonder why, though, he calls it a "sideways market" rather than a secular Bear market?
His explanation of how during a period of increasing economic growth business profit can stall is interesting ....high profit margins being mean reverting due to new competitive players entering into the market and pulls down margins....his example Samsung entering Apple's Market...I mentioned something similar in the NZX50 thread + rising interest rate expense
Overall his outlook is very bearish...eh!
Last edited by Hoop; 02-06-2013 at 08:06 PM.
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03-06-2013, 01:00 PM
#1154
Haussmann points out that aggressive and persistent fed easing was the cause of the 2001 and 2008 market declines - the 50% ones
http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc130603.htm
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03-06-2013, 01:07 PM
#1155
This was interesting in that Haussmann article -
since 1940, when the S&P 500 has been above its 200-day moving average, the total return of the index has averaged 14.2% annually, versus just 4.5% when the index has been below its 200-day average.
S&P still above the 200 ma so alls ok at the moment
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03-06-2013, 01:40 PM
#1156
Originally Posted by belgarion
“If you’re not confused, you don’t understand things very well.” — Charlie Munger, talking about today’s economy.
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/d...nclick_check=1
Sums up my view too. As Arb said on the GPG thread - when you don't understand an investment you once thought you did then you're best out.
If the market keeps going for another 10 or even 20% I'll not be surprised but the recent tank of markets at the mere suggestion that QE might end soon is enough to keep me in "winding down mode". The whole thing could be going Japanese - big time!
Edited: The GPG thing (and my other dogs) remind me of 2008 ... My dogs dropped before the overall market as (i'm guessing) investors gave up and went chasing better but over priced stocks. Time to be very cautious.
Belg..the golden stock MFT was also a leading indicator it broke its magnificent run back in end Feb/early March 2007 and the NZX50 index fell to bits 7.5 months later..after plateauing out and only going an extra 3% higher hampered by double (sub-formation multiple) tops
Now in 2013 MFT has again broken down in Early March...deja vu for the NZX50 in October 2013 ??
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05-06-2013, 10:08 AM
#1157
Originally Posted by ananda77
So far correction off 1635 has been very shallow with good support above 1620 - at this stage 1600 appears almost optimistic
...shallow does not do much to wear off long term accumulated excess (overbought) but that's maybe the Fed is prepared to give due to the wealth effect operative
...anyway, accumulating insurance above 1635 since if one does not made it so far....
Kind Regards
...accumulating 'long' starting today *1624
Kind Regards
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05-06-2013, 12:18 PM
#1158
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06-06-2013, 10:55 AM
#1159
Last edited by Hoop; 06-06-2013 at 11:10 AM.
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06-06-2013, 11:13 AM
#1160
Hoop:
...your *1535 support also coincides with the median price line in the 2.5yr monthly time frame in my trading system - and price always shows tendency to retreat into the median over the longer term. Its a possibility, but chances right now for that are slim imo. Basically think around *1600 as the turning point. Under *1600, will give up strategy to accumulating 'long' started *1624.
There is just plenty of worry about the continuation of the bull and technically, its whimpering. But that's all the more reason to remain bullish until north of *1750/*1800 as a minimum.
Kind Regards
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