Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

**MAC** · 12-07-2013, 09:11 PM

Now, we should really consider that the world may not be exclusively full of gloomers and that the end may not actually be neigh. You can get such an awfully sore neck looking out for meteors;

David Kostin articulates very well a forecast that represents an analysis based on present economic fundamentals. I guess you would have to be able to convey a message well to get to be both the Chief US Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs and a man in a smart suit. No I don’t think the top equity strategist in Goldman would purger himself on global television, advertise, well of course why else would he agree to be on TV.

The economic fundamentals do though appear to support his position really rather well ……….…

Hoop, if you think the Goldman Sachs Chief US Equity Strategist is wrong and you are right, would like to explain to us all why ?

**Hoop** · 12-07-2013, 09:19 PM

Originally Posted by omad

Man in smart suit says – "Over time, the market should be rising in line with growing corporate profits, he said, and predicted that the S&P 500 could hit 1750 by year-end."

Market pricing says there is approximately 30% probability of the S&P 500 being at 1750 by Dec 31. So that's 70% probability that it won't. Which side of that bet do you want?

Did you notice the interviewers (smart cookies) tried to mention that economic growth causes negative corporate profit pressures but the fast talking Man in smart suit dismissed their comments and talked his way around those side-issues. He was a man on a mission with a set agenda and the interviewers noticed this.

I don't know about Market pricing probabilities.. that game seems rigged, Omad ................It's hard enough trying to predict what will happen tomorrow with a single variable e.g the S&P500 index... less alone trying to predict what each of the hundreds of variables and networked variables will do by years end in the market pricing process... how on earth can anyone get a probability of 30% or any probability for that matter.

That Man in smart suit from Goldman's Sachs , David Kostin, he used all the logic and knowledge he had plus expensive models to predict all the variables and still got his 2012 year prediction wrong...so he was on the wrong side of his probabilities too.

..

There are some intelligent beings out there on cyber space that have very good track records ..One character sends his emails to over 1 million recipients to keep us informed.

**winner69** · 12-07-2013, 09:31 PM

Originally Posted by Hoop

Did you notice the interviewers (smart cookies) tried to mention that economic growth causes negative corporate profit pressures but the fast talking Man in smart suit dismissed their comments and talked his way around those side-issues. He was a man on a mission with a set agenda and the interviewers noticed this.

I don't know about Market pricing probabilities.. that game seems rigged, Omad ................It's hard enough trying to predict what will happen tomorrow with a single variable e.g the S&P500 index... less alone trying to predict what each of the hundreds of variables and networked variables will do by years end in the market pricing process... how on earth can anyone get a probability of 30% or any probability for that matter.

That Man in smart suit from Goldman's Sachs , David Kostin, he used all the logic and knowledge he had plus expensive models to predict all the variables and still got his 2012 year prediction wrong...so he was on the wrong side of his probabilities too.

..

There are some intelligent beings out there on cyber space that have very good track records ..One character sends his emails to over 1 million recipients to keep us informed.

Must be a different Kostin hoop .... the real Kostin is never wrong

He must have been on special pills last year ....a renowned bull becoming bearish .....never

Interesting gs people all seem to have different views

Just keep an eye on those charts as the s&p heads to 1750

**winner69** · 12-07-2013, 09:35 PM

Better looking than your charts hoop

http://au.businessinsider.com/chart-...orecast-2013-5

**Hoop** · 12-07-2013, 10:49 PM

Originally Posted by peat

I just don't see any reasoning behind the bug/windshield comment,
you've said that "the breaking of a primary resistance has to be classed as one of the biggies" so why negate that.
Is it because your bullish statements are shorter term than your comment regarding secular front +bug/windshield.

I've always struggled a bit with the word secular which you use a lot in your postings. To me its always meant 'not religiously affiliated' as in our education system is secular, but only recently I realised it would appear the word can have the meaning of long term. So you're saying short term bullish but long term splat ??

Hmmm ...no short answer here Peat... Ed Easterling had to write a book to explain it. I will try to summarise it below and then add a couple of URL links.

Secular cycles are either Bull or Bear.......Nearly all the long term charts you see are price indexed and cyclic market cycles can be easily identified.... As Secular Cycles are measured by the trending of the Annualised PE Ratio they are invisible on those charts.

Annualised??? ...A formula is used to smooth out the volatility and distortions of the PE Ratio.
Why is it called Secular?.... PE ratios cycle usually are over a long period of time 5, 10, or 20+ years.
Is a secular bear cycle all bad?....No... secular cycles contain cyclic bull and bear cycles...also economic growth is not any different whether Bull or Bear.
If you can't see it and it takes forever to spin around one cycle why should I a medium/long term investor have to worry about it?...Half of the time during Secular Bull market cycles there's no need to worry about it...however a signature of a secular bear market cycle is a very long trading range (rectangle) pattern....Superannuation/ life insurances involving Equities and long term "buy and hold" strategies perform poorly during secular bear cycles..I personally believe there are some exceptions to the bear signature (e.g AORDs 2003 to 2007) however exceptions are rare. At this moment in time Wall St NZX AORDS and some Europe Markets sharemarkets in a Secular Bear Cycle are reaching/bettering their previous highs and are considered at the top their theoretical rectangle pattern boundaries signature....the secular bear is saying these sharemarkets are due to top out and reverse cycle back to cyclic bear.
A S&P500 chart making Secular cycles visable

Does a falling PE ratio always relate to a falling sharemarket index price?...Often.... but not always, an example is Earnings could increase at a faster rate than price increase.
When does a secular bear cycle end?....when the PE Ratio value rises up from below 10 and goes higher past 10.
Can a secular bear die at a higher than 10 and rise up again?...theoretically No A secular bear can only die below 10..if PE ratio reverses up the bear is deemed to be in hibernation .eg 2010-now

Peat when Tricia tried to read about this I recommended he had a few ports beforehand...your thinking has to be flexible....take time to read it all.... a few days and a case of port

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/
After this read... google around..you can then spot and avoid the websites that have a poor grasp (knowledge) on Secular cycle theory.

**Hoop** · 12-07-2013, 11:05 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

Better looking than your charts hoop

http://au.businessinsider.com/chart-...orecast-2013-5

Yep sure are..... obviously my happy pills can't be as good as his....
I've bookmarked the page for future reference

**omad** · 13-07-2013, 03:41 AM

Originally Posted by Hoop

I don't know about Market pricing probabilities.. that game seems rigged, Omad ................It's hard enough trying to predict what will happen tomorrow with a single variable e.g the S&P500 index... less alone trying to predict what each of the hundreds of variables and networked variables will do by years end in the market pricing process... how on earth can anyone get a probability of 30% or any probability for that matter.

Probabilities are what they are, can't be rigged when you can take either side of the trade.

You would be surprised how well the probabilities work out, my trading is based on it, fundamentals and news are totally ignored, chart patterns and indicators, no thanks. Based on those rigged market pricing probabilities I control my win/loss percentage and month in month out the numbers turn out where they should.

For the record I'm not all doom and gloom and I'm not saying S&P won't be at 1750 buy end of year, makes no difference to me as long as we get some volatility in the mean time.

**Hoop** · 13-07-2013, 12:46 PM

Originally Posted by omad

Probabilities are what they are, can't be rigged when you can take either side of the trade.

You would be surprised how well the probabilities work out, my trading is based on it, fundamentals and news are totally ignored, chart patterns and indicators, no thanks. Based on those rigged market pricing probabilities I control my win/loss percentage and month in month out the numbers turn out where they should.

For the record I'm not all doom and gloom and I'm not saying S&P won't be at 1750 buy end of year, makes no difference to me as long as we get some volatility in the mean time.

Hi Omad..it seems you have a system that works for you..good on ya...

...Thanks for your useful post...as we all on ST strive to be more successful...