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12-07-2013, 09:11 PM
#1191
Now, we should really consider that the world may not be exclusively full of gloomers and that the end may not actually be neigh. You can get such an awfully sore neck looking out for meteors;
David Kostin articulates very well a forecast that represents an analysis based on present economic fundamentals. I guess you would have to be able to convey a message well to get to be both the Chief US Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs and a man in a smart suit. No I don’t think the top equity strategist in Goldman would purger himself on global television, advertise, well of course why else would he agree to be on TV.
The economic fundamentals do though appear to support his position really rather well ……….…
Hoop, if you think the Goldman Sachs Chief US Equity Strategist is wrong and you are right, would like to explain to us all why ?
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12-07-2013, 09:19 PM
#1192
Originally Posted by omad
Man in smart suit says – "Over time, the market should be rising in line with growing corporate profits, he said, and predicted that the S&P 500 could hit 1750 by year-end."
Market pricing says there is approximately 30% probability of the S&P 500 being at 1750 by Dec 31. So that's 70% probability that it won't. Which side of that bet do you want?
Did you notice the interviewers (smart cookies) tried to mention that economic growth causes negative corporate profit pressures but the fast talking Man in smart suit dismissed their comments and talked his way around those side-issues. He was a man on a mission with a set agenda and the interviewers noticed this.
I don't know about Market pricing probabilities.. that game seems rigged, Omad ................It's hard enough trying to predict what will happen tomorrow with a single variable e.g the S&P500 index... less alone trying to predict what each of the hundreds of variables and networked variables will do by years end in the market pricing process... how on earth can anyone get a probability of 30% or any probability for that matter.
That Man in smart suit from Goldman's Sachs , David Kostin, he used all the logic and knowledge he had plus expensive models to predict all the variables and still got his 2012 year prediction wrong...so he was on the wrong side of his probabilities too. ..
There are some intelligent beings out there on cyber space that have very good track records ..One character sends his emails to over 1 million recipients to keep us informed.
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12-07-2013, 09:31 PM
#1193
Originally Posted by Hoop
Did you notice the interviewers (smart cookies) tried to mention that economic growth causes negative corporate profit pressures but the fast talking Man in smart suit dismissed their comments and talked his way around those side-issues. He was a man on a mission with a set agenda and the interviewers noticed this.
I don't know about Market pricing probabilities.. that game seems rigged, Omad ................It's hard enough trying to predict what will happen tomorrow with a single variable e.g the S&P500 index... less alone trying to predict what each of the hundreds of variables and networked variables will do by years end in the market pricing process... how on earth can anyone get a probability of 30% or any probability for that matter.
That Man in smart suit from Goldman's Sachs , David Kostin, he used all the logic and knowledge he had plus expensive models to predict all the variables and still got his 2012 year prediction wrong...so he was on the wrong side of his probabilities too. ..
There are some intelligent beings out there on cyber space that have very good track records ..One character sends his emails to over 1 million recipients to keep us informed.
Must be a different Kostin hoop .... the real Kostin is never wrong
He must have been on special pills last year ....a renowned bull becoming bearish .....never
Interesting gs people all seem to have different views
Just keep an eye on those charts as the s&p heads to 1750
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12-07-2013, 09:35 PM
#1194
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12-07-2013, 10:49 PM
#1195
Last edited by Hoop; 12-07-2013 at 10:56 PM.
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12-07-2013, 11:05 PM
#1196
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13-07-2013, 03:41 AM
#1197
Junior Member
Originally Posted by Hoop
I don't know about Market pricing probabilities.. that game seems rigged, Omad ................It's hard enough trying to predict what will happen tomorrow with a single variable e.g the S&P500 index... less alone trying to predict what each of the hundreds of variables and networked variables will do by years end in the market pricing process... how on earth can anyone get a probability of 30% or any probability for that matter.
Probabilities are what they are, can't be rigged when you can take either side of the trade.
You would be surprised how well the probabilities work out, my trading is based on it, fundamentals and news are totally ignored, chart patterns and indicators, no thanks. Based on those rigged market pricing probabilities I control my win/loss percentage and month in month out the numbers turn out where they should.
For the record I'm not all doom and gloom and I'm not saying S&P won't be at 1750 buy end of year, makes no difference to me as long as we get some volatility in the mean time.
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13-07-2013, 12:46 PM
#1198
Originally Posted by omad
Probabilities are what they are, can't be rigged when you can take either side of the trade.
You would be surprised how well the probabilities work out, my trading is based on it, fundamentals and news are totally ignored, chart patterns and indicators, no thanks. Based on those rigged market pricing probabilities I control my win/loss percentage and month in month out the numbers turn out where they should.
For the record I'm not all doom and gloom and I'm not saying S&P won't be at 1750 buy end of year, makes no difference to me as long as we get some volatility in the mean time.
Hi Omad..it seems you have a system that works for you..good on ya... ...Thanks for your useful post...as we all on ST strive to be more successful...
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13-07-2013, 05:41 PM
#1199
Wise words Winner, I found a man in a suit for you too, everyone should have one ...........
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100874564
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13-07-2013, 06:44 PM
#1200
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