Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[winner69]

Yep good suit...but his happy pills seem to have given him secular side effects

must tune in to sharetrader that guy with his up up and away

and that white haired youngish guy in a suit further down the page looks real dodgy .... bet you even his mother doesn't trust him

[peat]

Hmmm ...no short answer here Peat...


Can a secular bear die at a higher than 10 and rise up again?...theoretically No A secular bear can only die below 10..if PE ratio reverses up the bear is deemed to be in hibernation .eg 2010-now

Peat when Tricia tried to read about this I recommended he had a few ports beforehand...your thinking has to be flexible....take time to read it all.... a few days and a case of port http://www.crestmontresearch.com/
After this read... google around..you can then spot and avoid the websites that have a poor grasp (knowledge) on Secular cycle theory.

Thanks for the post Hoop. Appreciate the effort.

My first thoughts would have to question the assumption that a secular cycle change has to reach 10 before it could make a major turn.
Maybe its different this time?

But at least I know why bugs should be watching out for windshields.

[ananda77]

...crucial SPX 500 *1680 in sight - a Close below and the much needed double digit correction will be closer to real

...flipside - *1700 brings *1800 closer to real

...market excessively overbought - Insto Core Holding STILL unable to take out 2007 Top - large divergence in strength across the main boards sets the index up for high risk trading

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

For all those who think the market is overbought, here's a technical perspective on why it isn't


http://dragonflycap.com/2013/07/24/wed-am-30/


I must admit, a fascinating insight, and from Dragonfly Capital no less...

And the next day this same writer Greg Harmon shorts the S&P500.......tells the public one thing and tells his subscribers another I am Short the SPY

Back to this right angled descending broadening wedge Click here...quote Bulkowski "...worst performing chart pattern in a bull market. The breakeven failure rate is high and the average rise is meagre......."
Greg Harmon would know this being a Technical Analyst...so what's his game ...eh?

Why is the RADBW pattern so unreliable with small bust outs that could turn and fail.........Being a broadening pattern and over a great deal of time other more powerful patterns can be "hidden" within this pattern...A chartist with this knowledge and a keen eye can often see something that the casual observer misses. e.g..this could be the middle of a head and shoulder pattern...with a 10% rule head at 1760 before the drop to form the right hand neck....only time will tell... but as Ananda and I keep saying on this thread the risk is getting really high and caution rather than blind optimism should be used here

The 2 rules of thumb and using the KISS method.............. beware of W shape features
.................................................. ...................................This is a very old mature bull market nearly 4.5 years old...the previous two bulls (see Harmons chart) lived for 5 years and 4 years....

[ananda77]

...yes Hoop, risks are very high right now, but at this stage, would expect a substantial correction ONLY not the end of the current bull.
Based on current liquidity inflows into options, the market looks like having a 'GO' at another high above the *1700 mark.
Personally, my orders are to add more protection starting at *1725 and am approx. 50% in cash

Will start setting Cash to work again starting at *1530

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Found this chart the other day. Market sees the S&P should be more correlated to Fed assets than to what the component companies are actually selling

Blue line change in S&P500 and the bottom red line the revenues growth figure

Of course it makes sense - this time its different

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/the-candyman

[ananda77]

Sunday Afternoon Studies: -Understanding Leverage- part 1_2_3 (Free Discourse)
http://intelligentoptioninvestor.com

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Todays Close below SPX 500 1700 confirms the divergence in strength across the boards and instos hesitation to push the market. Look out for a break below *1684

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...no change to the basic set-up in the market - the Fed keeps saving the day and instos not pushing the market higher
24 to 48 hours, it's either 1700+ or 1684 -
At this stage completely out of the market after a good run-up in Aussie
...expecting a double digit correction

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

...no change to the basic set-up in the market - the Fed keeps saving the day and instos not pushing the market higher
24 to 48 hours, it's either 1700+ or 1684 -
At this stage completely out of the market after a good run-up in Aussie
...expecting a double digit correction
Kind Regards

Yes I agree this correction could be sharper than the last one which was too shallow to vent that pressure off.
I too am 80% in cash..just short term dabbles to catch the temporary lifts with report announcements on the NZX..I have to stay amused some how...eh

Read something of interest the other day somewhere on a financial blog:

There are two ways stocks can correct: through price, and through time.

The pundits on the blog believed that instead of having a correction through price change, US stocks could simply mark time in a sideways pattern for 12 months, until they looked cheap again relative to earnings.
Food for thought.

These guys hedge their bets Sparky there are over a 100 chart patterns about a third are downward...so why not pick sideways...these guys hope it is because they can make heaps of money in a rectangle pattern...its the traders favourite pattern....they don't call it a trading range for nothing..eh?

10yr treasury marches up - S&P down.

Yes psychologically bad for equities this time around with an aged bull to boot..
The FED are doing the right thing..they have a plan to taper ... they release or leak cryptic information in an attempt to prevent the market adjusting suddenly....but will this plan work?


My Experimental correction indicator has flashed red (GET OUT) on the DOW and has a reddish glow with major caution on the S&P500...Another drop tonight and it will be 90+% probability a correction has started.
Charts to follow later