sharetrader
Page 122 of 191 FirstFirst ... 2272112118119120121122123124125126132172 ... LastLast
Results 1,211 to 1,220 of 1906
  1. #1211
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    8,476

    Default

    Yes psychologically bad for equities this time around with an aged bull to boot..
    The FED are doing the right thing..they have a plan to taper ... they release or leak cryptic information in an attempt to prevent the market adjusting suddenly....but will this plan work?

    No big 87 style Crash coming to the Dow/S&P .....PM sector will trade inverse of the action as they are coming out of major Bear trend
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  2. #1212
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,251

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Yes psychologically bad for equities this time around with an aged bull to boot..
    The FED are doing the right thing..they have a plan to taper ... they release or leak cryptic information in an attempt to prevent the market adjusting suddenly....but will this plan work?

    No big 87 style Crash coming to the Dow/S&P .....PM sector will trade inverse of the action as they are coming out of major Bear trend
    I agree JB ..Out of all the options available I don't consider a crash to be very high on the list of possible outcomes ...crashes are usually unexpected beasts and they are relatively rare events...Whats happening now could be that healthy expected correction we have been waiting for... it is expected to be bigger than the last one because that correction was very mild and was too short for the market to get much corrective benefit from.

    Ananda's view is that the correction will end with the bull market still intact...my view is the bull may survive but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a cyclic reversal..A change from Bull to Bear is not dramatic as the media makes out...often its a couple of months after the reversal before investors realise that the bull had died.

    ...you never know... we may experience a stage 1 Bear market cycle being in Neutral......with many many months in a trading range pattern as mentioned by Sparky..there's nothing to fear about that scenario..actually traders would love it.....eh Ananda
    Last edited by Hoop; 16-08-2013 at 05:32 PM.

  3. #1213
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Ananda's view is that the correction will end with the bull market still intact...my view is the bull may survive but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a cyclic reversal..A change from Bull to Bear is not dramatic as the media makes out...often its a couple of months after the reversal before investors realise that the bull had died.

    ...you never know... we may experience a stage 1 Bear market cycle being in Neutral......with many many months in a trading range pattern as mentioned by Sparky..there's nothing to fear about that scenario..actually traders would love it.....eh Ananda
    ....one never knows...but bear scenarios remain unlikely within current banking strategies. Despite QE, interests been rising based on improving economic indications, logically, its time to taper.

    ...as for the markets, instos have stubbornly resisted to push the SPX 500 past *1700 and have been sellers into sideways *1684_*1710 for the last few weeks, forcing lower entry levels.
    Am expecting a test, potentially down into *1550/*1585 (= 10% approx.) with an off chance, the market will correct into *1420 (=20% approx.). Only *1420 would be a satisfactory correction for the current, extremely overbought condition in the long frame, as the market would be heavily oversold.

    *1420 would be sweetest, so keep fingers crossed. However, as said before, this bull is far from dead!!!

    Kind Regards

  4. #1214
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,251

    Default Chances are high for a correction starting now

    The S&P500 Has marginally broken the MA50 to trigger the GET OUT signal on my experimental sentiment indicators...Personally it's still in the marginal zone ..I need to see 4 clear breaks and so far its 3.5. Monday or tuesday would decide.....but personally (being safe rather than sorry) in theory Friday was the day to GET OUT as the sister market the DOW has clearly broken its MA50 line


    Last edited by Hoop; 18-08-2013 at 12:03 PM.

  5. #1215
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    ...correction in the *1630 zone likely - a bit oversold in the 1hr frame - expecting a *1680 zone test - sell into the bounce would be my strategy, had I something to sell - currently 'long' derivative with 10% exposure

    Kind Regards

  6. #1216
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    This guy reckons QE is going to lead to a catastrophe

    http://teapartyeconomist.com/2013/08...sh-australian/

  7. #1217
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    1,933

    Default

    Globally some stock markets, sectors, currencies, housing markets and commodities are over priced now. Definitely NZD and AUD are two of the overpriced currencies in the world. Even Australian and New Zealand stocks markets are somewhat overpriced now. Still over priced markets can go up due to crowd behaviour and other factors. On other hand there are undervalued markets, sectors, currencies and commodities. It is time to identify and rotate stocks and commodities in next promising markets, commodities, and currencies.

    Globally we had strong rally in some developed, emerging and frontier markets during last two years and what we are seeing now is market correction and pullback. We will see more volatility in markets in the coming weeks.

    For some falling currency is a boom for them. For example Indian textile, garment, tea and information technology sectors are going to benefit lot. They will have smile in their face. On the other hand their import oriented industries will hit hard.

    There are market cycles, business cycles and industrial cycles. Who know our next attractive investment will have in our breakfast, lunch or dinner or may be in our next province?

    When markets are hot many will neglect underappreciated assets and out of favour sectors. These types of assets and stocks’ will become next great winners.

    In advance I expected gold and currency crisis. We are having some sort of currency crisis as well. These types of pull backs, correction, and crisis are part of market journey.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions

  8. #1218
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
    1,985

    Default

    Ha, that's truly a classic Winner.

    Fred’s totally come such a long way from the farm, now he’s a top simple Australian.

  9. #1219
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    ...correction in the *1630 zone likely - a bit oversold in the 1hr frame - expecting a *1680 zone test - sell into the bounce would be my strategy, had I something to sell - currently 'long' derivative with 10% exposure

    Kind Regards
    ...closing below *1657 would confirm another leg down into the *1580_1530 space underway, while a successful defense of the pivot would keep bull pressure on the correction into the *1680_*1694 space

    Kind Regards

  10. #1220
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    ...closing below *1657 would confirm another leg down into the *1580_1530 space underway, while a successful defense of the pivot would keep bull pressure on the correction into the *1680_*1694 space

    Kind Regards
    ...am expecting the real test in the bull/bear battle further up

    Kind Regards

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •