Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[Hoop]

Hey Hoop,

I pointed out quite a while back that the S&P500 and DOW hadn't been really giving great returns when the falling value of the USD was taken into account. I seem to remember you threw up some great graphs of the DOW et al when valued in currencies other than the USD. Any chance you could do this again or better tell me the source of the data?

I have a theory that its overseas money that is keeping US stocks up and the overseas money is waiting for the spend thrift US consumers to start spending. Once the US consumers start spending we'll see the average PER fall back to more "normal" levels. If it doesn't, as I don't think it will (most consumers' real incomes have been falling) then we'll see a correction. Probably about 12 months from now unless US unemployment remains stubbornly high and the overseas money may just take flight.

Thanks. (modelling this against another period to see whether this time it is different ... )

Did I ?.....Hmm can't remember..how long ago was this Belg?

I remember doing the different currencies for the metals copper gold etc...this can be done at Infomine.com website...I have the link to copper chart here which gives you the currency options..
I quickly tried the infomine chart with the SP500 It gave me the chart but it didn't give me the currency options ...The infomine website is being a bitch tonight its slow and timing out on me.....Have a go yourself Belg you may have better luck than me..If you do succeed currency converting the indexes could you post it ...

I assume the NZX50 would be miles ahead of the S&P500 when charted under the same currency...

I will dredge my computer hard drives (5 terabytes in total ) and see if I had in fact charted this for the indexes as you said...........I google around as well....it would be interesting comparisons..

cheers

[Hoop]

A comparison of SP500 NZX50 and ASX200 for the last 5 years...unfortunately not using the same currency index..Belg
I wonder when the ASX will do a catch up..

[ananda77]

Hoop:

...am remain bullish and accounting for a correction at most and prepared for a big upside breakout soon. So why are you expecting a bear market. Bears dont happen when everyone is expecting them as far as am concerned.
kind regards

[ananda77]

...even huge amounts of liquidity inflows by yesterdays Close could not push the US markets out of the trading range
...QE versus Institutions, the bull_bear fight will see another day
...conservatively speaking and TA based, the narkets MUST correct now or any further upside will develop into a dreaded blow-off hurting badly
...under the QE paradigm however, the markets need to be pushed past the current range into a new SUPERBULL

...theres no winner at this stage and in terms of trading, cover the up-side and deploy plenty of cash on the downside appears to be the most sensible approach

...of course, a prolonged trading range would nake sense
kind regards

[Hoop]

Hoop:

...am remain bullish and accounting for a correction at most and prepared for a big upside breakout soon. So why are you expecting a bear market. Bears dont happen when everyone is expecting them as far as am concerned.
kind regards

Hi Ananda
Many investors expect a correction could happen, but if you search there inner fundamental souls you would find they can not believe a equity bear market could happen when the economy is finally coming right..
The media (Market Watch) says 98% of the investors say a crash will happen in 2014 ... ....really!!!!!!.....where's the evidence the VIX (fear index) is at its record lows showing extreme complacent behaviour...
I have a list of about 15 bull to bear reversal signals....some are in much detail and too much to post
I may put it on the Investing and the secular bear market thread when I get time..

Ananda ..One of those signals relates to the VIX.... there is only one area where episodes of investors fear is absent and that is at the top of a bull market cycle.

See my layered chart below.
For some strange reason most investors think dramatically that the bull market cycle will always end with a crash and panic...

When looking back on history and charts it shows that most often it takes a fews months before investors realise that the cycle has changed from bull to bear. There's a thinking that its just another bull correction and they jump in the dip as they have got used to doing and accumulate the "cheap" shares... this is shown (VIX) below with complacency
. Sometimes a reversal can sneek up when there's no correction, just a series of wavering around the top and slow declines due to lethagy...investors here just wait it out thinking its a market breather and wait for the companies to catch up to the market..which this time doesn't happen..

See on the chart below the flat bull market tops...in 2000 after the bull market reversal it took 6 months to fall out from its top range area... in 2007 it took 4 months....those two Bull/bear reversals were sneaky..eh?..and it then took both of those reversals another 3 months after that!!! to create doubt that the slight falls and lack of highs for a long time and investor portfolio's not performing as they should, may be in fact be something more sinister than first thought...

Goes to show how easy it can be to be caught up being in investor denial.

[ananda77]

Hoop these are wise conclusions and very valid observations not to be dismissed

However, as pointed out in the last post, markets keep operating within the 'FED POLICY' paradigm (no point repeating the details) which may explain the VIX showing extreme complacency.

As long as the FED does not give warnings to abandon, markets appear to be operating on a STAR TRECK pleasure planet, where people vist casinos where punters
never loose

kind regards

[ananda77]

SPX 500 *1930 - *1950 - *1975 next
...surprise surprise no TOP in sight just yet
Kind Regards

[winner69]

VIX down to 10 - jeez that is very low, hardly ever seen before

Sweet as no. No problems with the US markets.

Janet doing well

[noodles]

VIX down to 10 - jeez that is very low, hardly ever seen before

Sweet as no. No problems with the US markets.

Janet doing well

Complacency is the problem
Time to buy put options

[winner69]

This is not how an economic recovery is supposed to work: The average American still earns
less now per hour after inflation than he did five years ago when the U.S. exited its worst
recession in decades.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/recove...172000797.html

Can't see US markets picking up much more until their consumers have more money.

Isn't that the way it's meant to be Belg ......the guy in the street struggling if time while the likes of Koch get richer

Hard for those 20% of people with mortgages who are underwater to get ahead when wages not going up