Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

... the *1973/*1970 pivot taken out on the *Close suggesting another test in the *1950/*1940 support

... running beside the current sell-off is a 'Dow theory Buy signal' (Dow fresh all time high with IMMEDIATE TRANNY support - a very rare occasion indeed)

So careful out there, this bull has shaken off weak hands many times

... am running this sell-off weighted to the long side with plenty of Cash buying the down side

kind regards

... this strategy is now qualified with an unsuccessful re-test of the SPX500 Highs into 2015, followed by new Lows into 2016

kind regards

[psychic]

That scenario Winner is looking increasingly likely..

With the S&P500 at 1942 The technicals have showed resistance break throughs...this indicates that this rally has a good chance of being a genuine rally and not the sucker type ..So far this implies that this correction is more likely another one of the bull market variety...The most significant resistance lines that were broken was the bull bear line 1905/10 and its confirmation line at 1925/30 (dashed orange line)...

Why the v-shaped correction?...These are stampede type actions and can be triggered by any small insignificant (may be unrelated) event(s)...It shows the market had (having) an underlying nervous feeling..Flash corrections can settle the markets anxieties when it can be seen in hindsight that the fear invoked action was an unwarranted and a quick rally fills in the correction..At the moment the start of good earnings news has settled some of those overvalued market anxieties for now...and the complacent feel good factor is returning..

As this market seemed to have reacted with irrational speed (stampede), the Fibonacci (instinct behaviour) indicators become more relevant...The 61.8% fib retracement is at 1945 so care is still needed as 61.8 is a major life number

The tech traders will still be in as they have watched each resistance break...their eyes will now be focused on the next 2 hurdles,, the 1945 Fib then the 1960/70 area...any resistance problems will see these guys take their profits and exit the market and the index will tank..Us plebs knowing where these anxiety index levels (resistance) are, gives us valuable warning sign areas so to be careful, alert and have better information to assess the longer term direction of the market...A bit like road signs on a highway..eh?

Its a day by day thing at the moment...and so far the S&P500 is looking good..

Well predicted Hoop!

[Hoop]

Thankyou ..It alway a great to get a comment like that from a Psychic

Well...maybe I posted one day too soon....as the S&P500 not looking that great today, but, still odds on being bullish....just!!! ..Hmmm ...Dead cat bounce?.. I do like doing dead cat trading ..its fun...but I have only done it in the NZX...
It seemed the market struck Fib resistance problems and started a technical sell off back to the 1927 close..This 1927 (1930) is the bull bear confirmation line so the S&P500 has thrown back to test this now support area...Throw backs are common events that test recent break through S&R lines or chart pattern breakouts.. it gives investors a second chance to enter the market....... however today the timing (the close) has interrupted the momentum so we have to wait until tomorrow to see whether buyers (having 16 hours to think about it) will return and create a bounce off this support area...

Ananda..best of luck going long..and being bullish for the next 18+ months...you may need it

[Hoop]

Hmmm..The more I think about this rally the more downbeat I feel about it...Dead cats and all..

Not that clued up on Elliott Waves...Could this rally still be the B wave?.. Dumbass?

[winner69]

Hmmm..The more I think about this rally the more downbeat I feel about it...Dead cats and all..

Not that clued up on Elliott Waves...Could this rally still be the B wave?.. Dumbass?

That log periodic behaviour continues

Might need to reread some of Sornette's papers again, esp that Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises one

[ananda77]

Thankyou ..It alway a great to get a comment like that from a Psychic

Well...maybe I posted one day too soon....as the S&P500 not looking that great today, but, still odds on being bullish....just!!! ..Hmmm ...Dead cat bounce?.. I do like doing dead cat trading ..its fun...but I have only done it in the NZX...
It seemed the market struck Fib resistance problems and started a technical sell off back to the 1927 close..This 1927 (1930) is the bull bear confirmation line so the S&P500 has thrown back to test this now support area...Throw backs are common events that test recent break through S&R lines or chart pattern breakouts.. it gives investors a second chance to enter the market....... however today the timing (the close) has interrupted the momentum so we have to wait until tomorrow to see whether buyers (having 16 hours to think about it) will return and create a bounce off this support area...

Ananda..best of luck going long..and being bullish for the next 18+ months...you may need it

... am sure I expressed this wrongly again

Qualified means, the original strategy has changed:
-am stay weighted long until early 2015 (or so)
-am weighted short near the current SPX500 Highs and adding short positions into 2016 (or so)

kind regards

[dumbass]

Hmmm..The more I think about this rally the more downbeat I feel about it...Dead cats and all..

Not that clued up on Elliott Waves...Could this rally still be the B wave?.. Dumbass?

i think we are still in the B wave and this is most likely just the first leg of it, intermediate A of a 3 leg major B.

i think this rally ( intermediate A ) is going to end pretty soon around the 1950 - 1960 area and then down to 1900 or 1860 ( intermediate B ) then the final wave up intermediate C to

complete major B, before all hell breaks loose, 1600s.

still following this trading plan until its wrong !

[Hoop]

That log periodic behaviour continues

Might need to reread some of Sornette's papers again, esp that Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises one

Yes it does ...waving around the middle of the SD(2) channel with small changes (corrections)..If this correction is over it will be another unhealthy small correction although this one was more dramatic..eh?..

And yes as you say Winner 2050 by Xmas seems to be the way its projecting to be..

I'm searching for short term technical tibits for subtle very early signs of a cycle reversal...there's probably none and I'm just seeing imaginary demons.... but searching for them at this mature stage of the Bull market cycle is fun....

[Hoop]

... am sure I expressed this wrongly again

Qualified means, the original strategy has changed:
-am stay weighted long until early 2015 (or so)
-am weighted short near the current SPX500 Highs and adding short positions into 2016 (or so)

kind regards

ahh haa...yeah I did interpret your original post differently.....so you think there's a topping out of the cycle close by?

i think we are still in the B wave and this is most likely just the first leg of it, intermediate A of a 3 leg major B.

i think this rally ( intermediate A ) is going to end pretty soon around the 1950 - 1960 area and then down to 1900 or 1860 ( intermediate B ) then the final wave up intermediate C to

complete major B, before all hell breaks loose, 1600s.

still following this trading plan until its wrong !

Well we are nearly there (1950-1960) with the 1949 close today (resting on its new support)..Interesting thing on my day chart is it topped out at 1962....there's not any charted resistance here so why turn around at this point (1962)... did it tested and failed a near MA50 (1966) area or wave top?...

Well you Plan A is still operating ..if Plan A stays on track then it will break Winners log chart upward channel..He won't be pleased.

[winner69]

Yes it does ...waving around the middle of the SD(2) channel with small changes (corrections)..If this correction is over it will be another unhealthy small correction although this one was more dramatic..eh?..

And yes as you say Winner 2050 by Xmas seems to be the way its projecting to be..

I'm searching for short term technical tibits for subtle very early signs of a cycle reversal...there's probably none and I'm just seeing imaginary demons.... but searching for them at this mature stage of the Bull market cycle is fun....

Don't forget these log periodic waves end in finite time singularity (fancy words for 'blow off' / crash I think)

Didier also said this early this year "equities are expensive, and prices have been propped up by central banks’ easing policies. But the big correction, when it comes, will be triggered by a major political or social event induced when bubbles, driven by the QE everywhere, reach maturity and global instability rises.”

I just keeping close eye on things and if it all does happen like this get out quick