Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[Hoop]

Chartists might find this analysis interesting http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...now-time-worry

Yes..A good analysis..Baa Baa

[ananda77]

OUT OF AMO
http://www.economist.com/news/leader...xist-stimulate

...IF it happens, hold on to your seats

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

If you think Central Bankers and Politicians don't know what they are doing...then you should add Company management to that list..

One of my "ducks" is US share buybacks which correlate well with the market index...
The BOA/Merrill Lynch chart below (sorry a year out of date**) just goes to show that us investors should not think positively about a company buying back its shares when times are good...A flurry of share buy backs could suggest the market is near the top of it's Bull Market cycle

**....Note the S&P500 was higher then than now

[peat]

If you think Central Bankers and Politicians don't know what they are doing...then you should add Company management to that list..

Maybe we shouldn't we expect company directors to be good speculators?

[ananda77]

Psychology during bear market rallies seems to follow a fairly consistent pattern. “During secondary reactions [upward] in bear markets,” wrote DOW Theorist Robert Rhea in the 1930’s, “it is a fairly uniform experience for traders and market experts to become very bullish.”

...well, who knows if the US markets already are in bear territory. Fact is, it was a lot less risky to take a long position at 1812 then at 2000. The US market is overbought and it's time for a retreat. So in terms of risk, short the pivot points for short term trades on further upside...

kind regards

[peat]

Back to the 61.8% fib now.


Attachment 7931

[Hoop]

Back to the 61.8% fib now.


Attachment 7931

Yes interesting times now...Peat

If an Investor assumes that Wall St is in stage 1 of a bear market cycle, then this Wall St one month old rally nudging those key resistance levels including that conjunction area (2000/2020) would have those investors full attention ...

Although the S&P500 high point was last May it is still "officially" in its 7 year Bull Market cycle as it has not "officially" entered a Bear Market Cycle by dropping more than 20%....
Some say this is a Bull market Cycle correction..a lengthy one which indicates the bull is sleeping.
Some say this is a Stage 1 Phase of a Bear Market Cycle.
Detecting a cyclic reversal from Bull to Bear is difficult to pinpoint at the time or a small period of time (easy with many months of hindsight)..At the time of a possible happening some analysts use break points as confirmations points to prove one way or the other..the other being that Wall St is operating in a Stage 1 of the new Bear Market Cycle. A common bear cycle signature is failed rallies..however a sucker rally can rally back to nearly another record top and break through many resistance levels as happened in November 2015...

I posted back in August 2015 that I think Wall St has had a cyclic reversal to a bear market cycle and the first down wave is happening ..I still believe this assumption as all cyclic reversals start with bear tides well before the "official" ~_20% accumulative drops...Actually all stage one Bear Market cycles occur before the official Bear Market confirmation ..The corresponding November rally would see most investors not believing that Bear Cycle assumption and accompanied with the return of the feel good factor (Lets dive back in folks..All this worry has turned out to be bull****...the bad news never eventuated..it was all stupid talk from the doomsayers)...and they got suckered...

Now in March we have reached another similar scenario...Question:..Is this another sucker rally within a Bear Cycle that still has not yet been "officially" confirmed?..... or... Is it the real deal this time...could it be that the Wall St sleeping bull has woken up???.....Has this long term bad news not eventuated... again!!! ?

Hmmmm..latest figures say the reported earnings disappointed and forward estimates revised down 8%....but hey America is all good and healthy and will go from strength to strength..I know because Mr Trump told me so

So the Bulls v the Bears fight continues..

[winner69]

Hoop, a new all time high not far off eh

[Hoop]

Hoop, a new all time high not far off eh

Nice one Winner..

A honest unbiased answer from this bear orientated investor is................Only 5% away Winner so it could happen and it's always possible another bull rally could send the index into the blue skies from that point...

We have to keep an open mind don't we....who knows what can happen..The S&P500 could shoot off into the stratosphere going from todays 2020 to 3300 with a PERatio of 30...not impossible because it has happened once before.

Its possible this Secular Bear could stay in hibernation for another year or so...This secular bear has already shown wide ranging abnormalities so maybe another abnormality doesn't matter..eh?

Herd behaviour and ingrained beliefs can be idiotic if certain conditions allow.

This Eric Bush guy seems to write some interesting blogs...He has noted that this present Cyclic Bull market Cycle is the longest on record within the current operating Secular Bear Cycle (Eric Bush calls it Structural instead of Secular)..He goes on to write "...The average duration of a cyclical bear market has been 401 days, while the average duration of a cyclical bull market has been over twice that at 920 days..." I find his cyclic Bull market figure somewhat low. Most commentators average out at about 1350 days (3.75 years)
This present Cyclic Bull Market is the fourth longest since 1900......It seems no Wall St Cyclic Bull has lasted longer than 8 years..so there's an opportunity here to break all records..eh?..

One thing you and I agree on Winner is that there are more cyclic bull markets within a Secular Bear Cycle than in a Secular Bull Cycle..this surprised Eric Bush...

Anyway time to stop mentioning this Secular stuff on this ST forum thread...eh Winner

So S&P500 breaks 3000 by Xmas you reckon..Maybe Aunty Janet will help you give it a nudge towards an all time record ..Trump Clinton and Co are doing their bit this year..

[winner69]

Hoop, you mention abnormalities that make this cycle unusual.

We have discussed previously but company buybacks has been one of them.

Interesting article
http://www.businessinsider.com/buyba...cession-2016-3

Since the beginning of the post-crisis bull-market run, the biggest buyer of equities hasn't been retail investors or institutions but companies themselves


According to a note from analysts at HSBC, buybacks have been the source of most of the demand for stocks since 2009.

The note said that for each of the past two years, companies in the S&P 500 have bought back nearly $500 billion of their own stock and a total of $2.1 trillion since 2010.

This huge amount of buying has been a massive source of upside for the stock market, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.