Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[tomblu]

Thanks Hoop, good to be mindful of "irrational" market behaviour.

Also how prevalent (and/or significant) is manipulation by the central banks etc (a la The Big Short)

[Hoop]

Thanks Hoop, good to be mindful of "irrational" market behaviour.

Also how prevalent (and/or significant) is manipulation by the central banks etc (a la The Big Short)

I really enjoyed that Film.....and yes Central Banks regulating (manipulation) some market variables...Back in my day at Uni when Muldoon ruled Middle Earth (straight after the dinosaurs ruled planet earth ..in retrospect I'm sure the dinosaurs were better rulers )...the lecturers always said that regulating certain market variables heightened the risk of breaking down the market forces communication channels thereby distorting those markets surrounding the overall economy...Hmmm I hope they know what they are doing..eh?

[Hoop]

Another informative Chart of the Day..

Go to http://www.chartoftheday.com/ to subscribe to get the free chart of the day emailed to you....

The chart of the Day

With Q4 earnings largely in the books (98% of S&P 500 firms have reported), today's chart provides some long-term perspective on the current earnings environment by focusing on 12-month, as reported S&P 500 earnings. Today's chart illustrates the dramatic nature of the earnings plunge during the financial crisis as well as the recovery that followed -- a recovery that took earnings from levels not seen since the Great Depression to a new record high. More recently, however, S&P 500 inflation-adjusted earnings are trending lower and are now 19% off of their record highs.

Notes:
Where's the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron's recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

[winner69]

For Q1 2016, 94 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative EPS guidance and 27 companies in the index have issued positive EPS guidance. If 94 is the final number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for the quarter, it will mark the second highest number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for a quarter since FactSet began tracking guidance data in 2006. The current record is 95, which was recorded in Q4 2013.


AND THE S&P HEADS TO A NEW RECORD HIGH

[Aaron]

For Q1 2016, 94 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative EPS guidance and 27 companies in the index have issued positive EPS guidance. If 94 is the final number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for the quarter, it will mark the second highest number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for a quarter since FactSet began tracking guidance data in 2006. The current record is 95, which was recorded in Q4 2013.


AND THE S&P HEADS TO A NEW RECORD HIGH

Are there any limits to company valuations for companies making even a tiny profit if interest rates go negative.

[winner69]

Weird world

@michaelsantoli: A year ago yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 2067 and forward earnings forecast was $124. It's now at 2067, with forward forecast of $124.

And

@JeffCNYC: @michaelsantoli Yep. More interesting is that GAAP numbers are unchanged from 2011 (when S&P was 1250). https://t.co/8eRLhfhHUT

[Hoop]

Weird world

@michaelsantoli: A year ago yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 2067 and forward earnings forecast was $124. It's now at 2067, with forward forecast of $124.

And

@JeffCNYC: @michaelsantoli Yep. More interesting is that GAAP numbers are unchanged from 2011 (when S&P was 1250). https://t.co/8eRLhfhHUT

The more scary things are the big global giants...they are getting bigger and bigger..a lot bigger than in 2011

Just think of this scenario...how would the S&P 500 earnings look if the bottom 100 companies all record a loss in 2016.....highly unlikely this would happen...

but...

..lets look at an equivalent....Apple is larger than those bottom 100 companies combined!!!!...how likely is Apple not to make a yearly profit within the next few years??? How well do we know these Global Giants??..How well can they weather a Global Recession??...We don't know, as they weren't giants back in the last recession 2008-2009..Apples total assets are now 6 times larger than back in Jan 2010

Apple is the largest giant but there are others..Alphabet etc....

Maybe, these quick growing very successful giants are making Wall St a weird world

[winner69]

The more analyst earnings downgrade the better - Factset again

As the bottom-up EPS estimate for the index declined during the quarter, the value of the S&P 500 increased during this same time frame. From December 31 through March 31, the value of the index increased by 0.8% (to 2059.74 from 2043.94). This quarter marked the tenth time in the past 12 quarters in which the bottom-up EPS estimate decreased during the quarter while the value of the index increased during the quarter.

[kiora]

This sounds understandable.Are we better off here than the USA ? Probably not by much as our currency is perpertually overvalued due to carry trades?
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/fe...130625700.html

[Baa_Baa]

It might take a while to unfold, but lower lows and lower highs, are the clue.