-
21-01-2010, 07:51 AM
#181
www.invetrics.com:- data point 120 January 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 20 January 2009-
issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-
Trader Update -data point 20 January 2010:
...so far today, the expected SPX 500 plunge took the index below the Dec 29 identified support *1132 but has stabilized for now near *1130; risk lingers for the SPX 500 to stretch lower to test the Dec 31 Low *1114 near term , a pivot point, marking the confirmation point of the current rally leg;
...a successful defense of *1114 on a Close basis would motivate the market to re-test the Jan 11 High *1151 with potential to stretch higher into the *1156/*1168 range which could mark a formidable market top
...failing *1114 would indicate, the market is already undergoing a deeper correction down to the August/September/October Lows trendline *1079 at a minimum
...watch the VIX pattern for further clues 
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 21-01-2010 at 09:01 AM.
-
22-01-2010, 07:53 AM
#182
www.invetrics.com:- data point 21 January 2010
(may adjust at market Open)
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 21 January 2009-
issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-
Trader Update -data point 21 January 2010:
...so far today, the SPX 500 has extended the plunge down to *1114 as expected, which should act as near term support from which the index should move to its possibly final ascent before a major market top could be in place; cash started to flow into the market US Eastern 1:30pm
...a successful defense of *1114 on a Close basis would motivate the market to re-test the Jan 11 High *1151 with potential to stretch higher into the *1156/*1168 range which could mark a formidable market top
...failing *1114 would indicate, the market is already undergoing a deeper correction down to the August/September/October Lows trendline *1079 at a minimum
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 23-01-2010 at 07:10 AM.
-
22-01-2010, 10:35 AM
#183
Is this just a blib or a start of a downtrend?
Anyone care to give us a forecast?
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
-
22-01-2010, 11:18 AM
#184
Prechter recommended maximum shorts one day after the 1152 high .... and although he'd been recommending some shorts since around the 1000-1100 level , at the 1150 level he said to give it the full hit short i,e increase to 200% of your speculative positions with a stop (for the extra shorts) at that high claiming the risk reward ratio was superb. He gave technical chart analysis etc focusing on the contracting triangle see arco's post #187, and the advance/decline ratio etc....
So it was a pretty well timed commentary. And if Arco and Precther say something then people should start to listen
I'm a fairly cautious speculator and also am reluctant to give away the ideas from his publications (which I pay for) so thats why I didnt say at the time... but I did post that fib extension (which he never mentioned) and proceeded to put positions in place.
Although Prechter is considered a permabear he did call that March bottom in late Feb , advising to cover shorts at that time.
2010 is looking interesting... dont others find it hard to swallow that the GFC can so easily be swept aside
Last edited by peat; 22-01-2010 at 11:39 AM.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
-
22-01-2010, 12:23 PM
#185
given the better than expected growth out of china today (approx 9%) what is the likelihood of a bounce back!
-
22-01-2010, 01:31 PM
#186
So far, this is a completely normal minor retracement.
-
22-01-2010, 01:44 PM
#187
 Originally Posted by Phaedrus
[IMG]
So far, this is a completely normal minor retracement.
You can't say that mate .... the VIX shot up 20% .... that is fear ... panic .... and all that ... but heck the VIX is stilldown at 22 and that signals very volatility
Yes ... only a minor retracement in a big picture .... but unfortunately stopped out a few today
-
22-01-2010, 02:31 PM
#188
I;d be surprised if the indicator stays green
sentiment seems to have changed.
“If you're worried about falling off the bike, you’d never get on.”
-
22-01-2010, 03:20 PM
#189
...the SPX 500 closed at *1116, well within the Dec 31 Low *1114; unless the index violates *1114 on a Close basis, shorting the index now would be a high risk proposition with the *1114 support still in place; !!!all the down movement today happened at the Open and then the indexes held their positions thereafter!!!
...admittingly, the Dow should have stayed above *10423 on a Close basis but overshot, so there is a bit uncertainty in the equation
...the time to short the index was two days ago as mentioned in the daily updates;
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 22-01-2010 at 04:13 PM.
-
22-01-2010, 03:24 PM
#190
I've been reassessing my portfolio over the last couple of weeks and it coincides with fear I haven't seen in the market since the early/mid stages of the GFC. The combination of both of these means I've shed a bunch of companies that don't fit my criteria anylonger and were starting to become toxic.
I'm down to just three now.
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks