Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[Phaedrus]

The VIX is up 32% from its low. That's quite a jump but look at what happened last Oct/Nov. The VIX jumped 44% but the corresponding drop in the SP500 was a mere 5.6%. Not enough to even dent the ongoing uptrend.

The current 3% retracement could more than double and still leave a strong, healthy uptrend.

[winner69]

The VIX is up 32% from its low. That's quite a jump but look at what happened last Oct/Nov. The VIX jumped 44% but the corresponding drop in the SP500 was a mere 5.6%. Not enough to even dent the ongoing uptrend.

The current 3% retracement could more than double and still leave a strong, healthy uptrend.

Thats good Phaedrus .... looks we are safe for a while

The VIX at 22 implies a movenet in the S&P of +/-6% in the next 30 days .... heck only 6% ..... and note the PLUS or minus

[winner69]

Couple on interesting charts on wikipedia, esp the left one

When the VIX is low, like at the moment, the S&P behaves quite well .... little probability of it it rising or falling by 6% (implied 1 std dev) in the next 30 days

But you never know .... its all down to probabilities eh ... but at the moment according to the VIX the odds are in our favour

[arco]

Sorry everyone, bit late with this.
Posted on the blog on Wednesday

UPDATE

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 22 January 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 22 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-
under review -data point 22 January 2010-
issues 'liquidation' of long position recommendation before Close -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 22 January 2010:

...so far today, the SPX 500 has extended the plunge and violated the *1114 support decisively; the break of support in early trading signals now a deeper sell-off is most likely underway

...todays bounce off Dec 15 Low *1104 coincided wiith the institutional index closing the gapjust below the projected centerline support (hourly time frame) and breaking that support would confirm a deeper sell-off

...more bearish messages from the VIXtrading now above its Aug 2008 support breaking through two bearish resistances yesterday

...in case of the deeper sell-off, the next down target features the Dec 18 Low *1093 from which a corrective bounce could be expected targeting the Jan *1129/*1143 congestion

...if trading fails to push above this ceiling, the next down leg would start with the Aug-Sep-Oct Lows *1079 as a likely minimum target with potential to reach down as far as the Oct 2008 Low *1020;

...at the same time, if not short since Jan 14 near the top *1149 and Cash today around the *1100 level, failure in the congestion range next week would be the 'next logical short trading set-up'

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[arco]

And the beat goes on..............

SP500 information is given free of charge on the blog

[Phaedrus]

The sharp rise in the VIX continues - with the attendant drop in the SP500 causing it to go straight to magenta, skipping the usual intermediate "Caution" zone.

[evilroyrule]

So far, this is a completely normal minor retracement.

so what happened in the space of half a day? midday 22/01 its stay in and at close its sideline safest?

irrational fear.

[Phaedrus]

So what happened in the space of half a day?

The SP500 made an unusually large drop - 24.72 in fact.

Midday 22/01 its stay in and at close its sideline safest?

'Fraid so Roy. Don't get too hung up on the nomenclature though - it's really just a question of thresholds. Had the SP500 dropped 24.21 or less the chart plot would have been blue denoting caution. I suspect you would have found this somewhat less of a shock. No point in shooting the messenger though, eh?

Irrational fear.

Well, fear anyway.

You know how they say that a week is a long time in politics? Well, a day is a long time in the market.

[evilroyrule]

why is it all so quiet after today? are we waiting to see what happens overnight? interesting times. heaven forbid if there is a bounce back tonight. wednesday cld be a humdinger!