Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[Entrep]

winner, dumbass, hoop - any new thoughts on the US markets?

cheers

[dumbass]

my feeling is that we are setting up for a rally to suck a few bulls in , target is the 1240 pivot.

this is really just a set up for a bigger short wave lower , i like to trade the counter trend rallies but with extreme caution, safer bet is to short this rally.


long from 1140 stop to break even

[ananda77]

Market Internals:

VIX Close_< 31 first cautious signal the market ready to continue the bull trend
VIX < 29.3 a strong positve for the market
VIX Close_38.59 12 September 2011- remains in the cautious/danger zone > 31_29.3

C-RSI-30 negative -8.66

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378 Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1202 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1187

...holding the *1136/*1146 support range, the SPX 500 rallied into the *1168/*1178 resistance - further upside potential into the *1178 short term trendline resistance based on the September 12 Congestion High *1151 holding

...above trendline resistance *1178, upside potential carries the index int overhead resistance current *1235

...failing *1178, the market turns bearish again - in that case, expect the September 6 Low *1136 to fly out the window, pushing the index for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

carefull belg that nearly makes you a sucker!

[Entrep]

A greek default seems inevitable now... along with many EU bank downgrades. The whole rally this morning on some Chinese buying bonds rumour seemed ridiculous.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

A greek default seems inevitable now... along with many EU bank downgrades. The whole rally this morning on some Chinese buying bonds rumour seemed ridiculous.

I agree the China story seems weak to me also to move world markets.


If this is the case in the absence of any other major developments US may be weaker tomorrow ...

[ananda77]

...the SPX 500 2yr/week: a bullish set-up above the June 17 2010 High *1133 - any violation of the key support signals weakness ahead - any Close below key support while price < 200-d MA_plus extreme bearish sentiment = extreme risk for violent price falls

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

winner, dumbass, hoop - any new thoughts on the US markets?

cheers

Hi Entrep
It seems we all have different views chartwise...eh.....who said drawing chart lines was easy

My chart below started off simple but I have managed to complicate it to reinforce my bearish view.

My easy answer is "It's Ugly.

The chart below shows that the small 1120 support has become an extremely important level...if it breaks you can kiss your investor arse goodbye.

My view is bearish because
....1120 is a weak support level it had a little influence during the bull correction in the June 2010 then August 2010 but nothing to speak of before that.

....When Bollinger Bands squeeze up (purple arrows) they indicate a change of trend momentum often a reverse trend

....The Volume shows a possible concave trend occurring indicating another increase in volume in the near future ,,,more chance it being a sell volume increase and especially so if the 1120 support fails.

....I normally don't get too hung up on primary trend lines breaking because they do during some bull market corrections...however the S&P 500 broke a support level level as well as followed the leaders ASX Europe Asia markets down.

....I added the 30yr treasury bonds as well ..the yield fall shows money flowing towards them (a perceived safe haven) This flow of money out of the Equity Markets causes those markets to lose momentum. The last time they were this low was late January 2009 during the last phase of the bear... the capitulation phase.

....S&P500 as well as many other indexes are technically broken. The S&P has to have a big climb to get out of this bear hole...Above the orange 1280 level....a big ask atm.

Chart got too cluttered to add more.

[Financially dependant]

Hi Hoop, thanks for another great explanation of our current situation, I always value your posts....I am interested in why you call the 1120 support weak? With such high volume buying into the S&P at that level doesn't it give the support strength?? Always interested in your view (and anyone else who wants to chip in). Cheers FD.

[winner69]

PPT kicked in late yesterday by the looks of it