Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 4 October 2011-

Hedged *1378 - Exit Market

...the SPX 500 traded into striking distance of the August 27 2010 High *1066 with an intraday Low *1075 - currently on the rebound above rhe Psych *1100 level

...market in desperate need to consolidate at these levels to avoid panic - a Close above the Psych level *1100 -and holding- would be the start of a consolidation period to wear off the extreme oversold levels in the market - only 6% of unweighted positive nimber of stocks trading with positive strength remain on the SPX 500-

...assuming *1066 support holds, a bull market rally back to the June Low *1258 will be underway

Kind Regards

[Financially dependant]

What spiked the late rally?

Helicopter Ben is warming up the chopper and just talked the market back into the Green.....Timing is everything.....

[winner69]

What spiked the late rally?

Doesn't really matter Belg ... what matters is today is a key reversal day - bear market over and all good stuff from here ... (the cost of pyramids just went up)

from yahoo finance

Key reversal day?
October 4, 2011, 4:15 PM.

Might the stock market have hit a major bottom on the very day that it also satisfied the official definition of a bear market?

That distinct possibility is raised by the market’s stunning recovery in the last hour of today’s trading session, which appears to satisfy the definition of a “key reversal day”—a technical event that some technicians believe to be potentially quite bullish.

A key reversal day occurs when the market records a new low and then rallies to close above the previous day’s close. And that’s exactly what happened Tuesday: The S&P 500 SPX fell to an intra-day low early in the session at 1,074.77 — which was 21.2% below this benchmark’s closing bull market high of 1,363.61, hit last Apr. 29. That’s in excess of the 20% drop that is often used as the dividing line between a mere correction and a major bear market.

By the end of the session, however, the S&P 500 had rallied from that new intra-day low to close at 1123.95, up 2.3% on the session, and up more than 49 points from the session’s low.

To be sure, a key reversal day in an of itself does not guarantee that the bear market ended today.

Technicians consider the pattern to have primarily short-term significance.

Still, it would be ironic indeed for the bear market to have come to an end on the very day it convinced many that the bull market was dead.

-Mark Hulbert

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Dow down 200 points, closes up 153 points after last hour rally.

Big factor was FT article and market talk about support for EU banks with the set up of a "BadBank"
350 odd points on talk ...

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 October 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http:www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...price action today, following in a market driven by extreme negative sentiment and close to panic, suggests a significant bottom has been established

...assuming a bottom is in place above *1065 support, a bull market rally back to the June Low *1258 is underway

...just to be sure, a VIX below minimum 31- better below 29.3 would add certainty and sustainability to a third leg up in the current bull market

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 October 2011-

SPX 500 weekly chart: http//www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...down to the nitty gritties - the market needs to continue to built strength in a positive sideways/up move consolidation to weaken the negative overhang in market internals and yesterday's VIX 37.81 Close still represents high fear levels in the market

...look for a bull/bear fight around the *1136 support level for more insight to market direction in the short/medium term

Update:

...so far into the session, the bulls managed to hold the *1136 support with an intraday Low *1135 - now pressing ahead into the September 29 resistance level *1178/*1180 - risks are increasing in the resistance to move lower to affirm the *1100 Psych level/*1112 Congestion Low ahead

...if the *1100 Psych level/*1112 Congestion Low is successfully defended, the market is set to rally back into the June 2011 Low *1258

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 10 October 2011-

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...starting to work off the extreme oversold in the SPX 500 weekly 5-yr

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...large positive divergence in the strength of the NYSE composite index

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...institutional investors accumulated the move - no selling into strength apparent

-However-

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...the breach of the 3-yr VIX overhead resistance Tueday 4th October signals uncertainty down the track

...as a result, above the *1100 Psych level/*1112 Congestion Low, the market is set to rally back into the June 2011 Low *1258 -decision point-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Update 10 October 2011

...price action remains strong above *1168 support - although a corrective pull back is very likely - trading below *1136 signals first signs of weakness and readiness to pull back to the *1100 Psych level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 11 October 2011-

15% Hedged: *1200

Trade: buy *1124 Target: *1258 Stop: *1089

...the SPX 500 drifting moderately higher - extending the rally from the October 4 Low *1075 - market internals improving:

-Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ticking up
-Institutional Buying and Selling Trending in low accumulation
-the # of Positive Trending stocks moved into Positive territory - # of Negative Trending stocks shifted below the Equilibrium line into Negative territory

However

...risk is growing for a larger corrective shake-out ahead of the strong overhead resistance band *1200/*1230 to affirm the *1100 Psych level/*1102*1112 Congestion ahead

-the VIX currently still above the 31 minimum comfort level
-although the # of very strong stocks moved higher, level still too low to sustain the rally for much longer ahead of strong resistance levels
-Short Term, intra-day Liquidity Flows at overbought

...if the *1100 Psych level/*1102*1112 Congestion is successfully defended, the market is set to rally back into the the June 2011 Low *1258 - potential to move higher towards the 200-day MA

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader update -data point 13 October 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

15% Hedged: *1200

Trade: buy *1124 Target: *1258 Stop: *1089

...price action failed again the *1220 mark on October 12 2011 - while profit taking is apparent at the level, down ticks could not damage the recent uptrend starting from the October 4 2011 Low *1075 just yet

...concerns remain that the level of positive trending stocks is negative divergent to the level of very strong stocks moving higher - not a good look in terms of sustainability of the current up-move, as institutions remain sidelined ahead of earnings

...however, the market needs a Close below the October 12 2011 Low *1185 to signal readiness for an extended corrective shake-out to test the *1112/*1125 congestion

Kind Regards