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  1. #391
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    18th of October 2011 is when the warehouse facility with Westpac expires.

    Just remember that NZF Money (which is the unit subject to the S&P rating review) was at about $32m of debentures in September 2010. With the sale of the Finance Direct unit - this should now be down to about $30m. Total assets, in NZF Money are about $43.5m. So, equity does not seem to be an issue - just as they have been saying it is the maturity profile of the retail debentures.

    The biggest and most profitable unit of the NZF Group is the Home Loans Division (they did the $100m RMBS issue and are the unit funded by the Westpac facility). This unit has assets of $208m.

    There are problems to sort ... but I think it sounds worse than it is ... these guys have time, ideas and altitude (as the airline pilots say) and seem to be working on the problem.

    I bought some more at 2.3cents!!
    Last edited by Enumerate; 10-05-2011 at 03:42 PM.
    Do not consider my postings as investment advice. I am here to share research and to speculate on what might be. The boundary between fact and conjecture might not always be clear - best to treat all comments as speculation.

  2. #392
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Its death by a thousand cuts. ALF is now down to an all time low of $0.013.

    NZF appears to be following a similar path. How anyone can see a two notch credit rating cut from B to CCC with NZF Money (and a negative credit watch) as a positive is beyond me - it has to impact on NZF. This positiveness is just the same as we saw with ALF and SCF - don't we learn?
    You've got to admire the positive approach of some investors. Thankfully their enthusiasm keeps the liquidity in the market. ALF now down to $0.01 and NZF down to $0.023. Theres lessons on how Directors can destroy shareholder wealth - lessons that ought to be learnt before investment decisions made.

  3. #393
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    Have you actually done any analysis on NZF Group, Mini?

    This is a situation in which this stock, in two years time, will either be worth 10x the current price; or it will be worth nothing. This is why I am unconcerned by market liquidity.

    Clearly, investing into this kind of situation is not for every investor. If they do not sort their issues with retail debenture funding - bad things will happen. There are even other failure modes based on the future of the residential property market. However, if you can calculate the balance of probability ... that is why I am in NZF.

    ALF did not meet my reward criteria. I hope for all concerned that it pulls through ... but it is not part of my story.
    Do not consider my postings as investment advice. I am here to share research and to speculate on what might be. The boundary between fact and conjecture might not always be clear - best to treat all comments as speculation.

  4. #394
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    Sorry, correction to the post #391. Just remembered the latest figures we had on NZF Money were from the updated prospectus at the Companies Office:

    Quote Originally Posted by Enumerate
    As of mid-March NZF Money had $21m of secured retail debenture funding and $13m of equity funding!
    So we are talking $21m rather than the $32m figure quoted in the half year accounts.
    Do not consider my postings as investment advice. I am here to share research and to speculate on what might be. The boundary between fact and conjecture might not always be clear - best to treat all comments as speculation.

  5. #395
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    He-he just call it as I see it Xerof, there is some very optimistic people and comments on here, when the facts dictate otherwise. Invessi seems to think this company can do no wrong, when in reality they have made mistake after mistake and now find themselves in a very vunerable position of having to a deal with someone if they wish to remain in business. I cannot see shareholders wanting to tip more money into this in a capital raising when a third of their shareholders didn't really want shares anyway and I believe they would be reluctant to throw good money after bad. Another comment was "NZF Money is ready to go", come on.... they have no money to lend and debenture holders are not renewing, S&P state they will be very tight cash wise for 2011 and in reality NZF Money has not been lending for some time. Anyway we will all know a bit more by the end of the month when the accounts are due (unless they miss another deadline)and we can assess the cash position and another chunky loss no doubt. Best buyer at 0.01 at present, I suspect it will be muted until the accounts are released and then I suspect he will disappear to....

  6. #396
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enumerate View Post
    Have you actually done any analysis on NZF Group, Mini?
    Yes i have. And part of my analysis looks for flags of warning. Yellow flags moving in a breeze I cope with. Red flags blowing in a gale usually causes me to back off but not all the time. I generally won't come back in with the detailed analysis until the flags stop waving.

    Some are happy to invest in a gale and good luck to them. I prefer a return relative to the risk and some times it just ain't worth heading out into a storm.

  7. #397
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    Banks desperate to lend:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business-e...ectid=10724593

    Syndicated from interest.co.nz - I don't know why the Herald does that - I'd rather read it from a proper Herald journo - but the message is banks are looking for new lending opportunities.

    I think Westpac, in particular, looks to be wanting to increase the book (this is support by other independent reports). Gotta be good for the likes of NZF Group.
    Do not consider my postings as investment advice. I am here to share research and to speculate on what might be. The boundary between fact and conjecture might not always be clear - best to treat all comments as speculation.

  8. #398
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    Enumerate, most of the banks are starting to look for new business and One Path are expected to launch a home loans division shortly and go head to head with Sovereign. With low interest rates, we should see the market start to pick up! Are you aware that most of the main banks and Sovereign are doing 95% lending to first home buyers that qualify (NZF was also until they suspended home loan lending)

  9. #399
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    Mike Pero to promote Fisher Funds - the more things change, the more they stay the same:

    http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/mort...isaver-4168903
    Do not consider my postings as investment advice. I am here to share research and to speculate on what might be. The boundary between fact and conjecture might not always be clear - best to treat all comments as speculation.

  10. #400
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    Do not consider my postings as investment advice. I am here to share research and to speculate on what might be. The boundary between fact and conjecture might not always be clear - best to treat all comments as speculation.

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