Is the worst over or is it still to come

[Dr_Who]

I believe that economists and brokers are wrapped up in their own little worlds[ which are mainly dreamtime] they have advised me to buy and i have lost, they have advised me not to buy and i have lost. the capital gains are nice to have; but with the market at the moment dividends better than fixed interest are the way to go.
ANYBODY OUT THERE KNOW MORE THAN THAT???

The numbers coming out of the US is looking good with a recovery. The numbers coming out of China and Aust is too good, so they have to put on the brakes. All this is a sign that the global economy is recovering. You will have to be very selective to make money as the market have already factored into some form of a recovery by putting on 60% in the last year.

[JBmurc]

The numbers coming out of the US is looking good with a recovery. The numbers coming out of China and Aust is too good, so they have to put on the brakes. All this is a sign that the global economy is recovering. You will have to be very selective to make money as the market have already factored into some form of a recovery by putting on 60% in the last year.

yeah going off CNBC an other major media sources your'd think world credit problems were all sorted an not going cause any problems sadly the fact is volumes in the markets aren't large either on the sellers or the buyers still DOW reaches a new high overnight so in the mean time things are all right.

The fact is the US,UK etc should be cutting back spending an paying off their debts instead they are ticking up trillion's to keep failed economic systems alive ..for a couple more months yrs who know's
but the fact is without the free money + low rates the world would be working through a major depression with bad businesses failing an good ones taking over with new future of better lower debt nation's

It's like a person having a business they doesn't make a profit year after year but has a major investor in the company that is also the bank loaning the money also the bank has a deal with the government for free money till the bank also start's making money this is happening all through the US an is the reason why the US has 13trillion in debt it can't pay back.
the current new US health care overhaul is going cost near on a trillion so TAX will increase on a nation that can't stop the debts increasing......

[JBmurc]

"Michael Pettis from Beijing University argues that China's reserves of $2.4 trillion - arguably $3 trillion - are a sign of weakness, not strength. Only twice before in modern history has a country amassed such a stash equal to 5pc-6pc of global GDP: the US in the 1920s, and Japan in the 1980s. Each time preceeded depression.

The reserves cannot be used internally to support China's economy. They are dead weight, beyond any level needed for macro-credibility. Indeed, they are the ultimate indictment of China's dysfunctional strategy, which is to buy $30bn to $40bn of foreign bonds every month to hold down the yuan, refusing to let the economy adjust to trade realities. The result is over-investment in plant, flooding the world with goods at wafer-thin export margins. China's over-capacity in steel is now greater than Europe's output."

[beacon]

"Michael Pettis from Beijing University argues that China's reserves of $2.4 trillion - arguably $3 trillion - are a sign of weakness, not strength. Only twice before in modern history has a country amassed such a stash equal to 5pc-6pc of global GDP: the US in the 1920s, and Japan in the 1980s. Each time preceeded depression.

The reserves cannot be used internally to support China's economy. They are dead weight, beyond any level needed for macro-credibility. "

I think they are wrong, China is making inroads into expanding its export markets. That will see their trade surplus as well as reserves plummet this year and next, followed by their exponential rise unless they can keep investing in third world countries. While the Gurus you follow keep blowing their "The end of world is nigh" horns, global political leaders seem to be working jointly to reflate assets and economy. While their solution may not be ideal, it is working. The US economy and world trade are recovering, and it is those who fail to see that these green shoots are strengthening that have got their "heads in sand" ...

[Dr_Who]

I do agree with you JB Murc in regards to the high debt level and the fact that most govt have a tendency to print too much money. This will be detrimental in the longer term for hyperinflation follow by a possible bigger crash. But in the meantime, we can enjoy the ride of the recovery thanks to the printing press. Just remember to hold some cash and get out before the party stops. The next crash will be the big one if global debt are not reduced significantly.

I have a different view in regards to China. I think the Chinese are maneuvering their economy perfectly. They have learnt from the trouble economies of Japan and Russia, not to let foreign powers intervene and not give in to pressure. The biggest concern with China right now is too much liquidity creating an internal asset bubble. They are in the process of queezing liquidity out of the system and slowing the engine down a notch. The main concern is that they slow it down too fast. I personally think that is not a concern. Unlike democratic society, the Chinese govt have the powers to make things move or not move very quickly.

[JBmurc]

I think they are wrong, China is making inroads into expanding its export markets. That will see their trade surplus as well as reserves plummet this year and next, followed by their exponential rise unless they can keep investing in third world countries. While the Gurus you follow keep blowing their "The end of world is nigh" horns, global political leaders seem to be working jointly to reflate assets and economy. While their solution may not be ideal, it is working. The US economy and world trade are recovering, and it is those who fail to see that these green shoots are strengthening that have got their "heads in sand" ...

The US economy has recovered because of the biggest increase in free money supply ever by the FED to the failed business models of the west.
An the Gurus I follow have got 90% of the predictions correct over the last 30yrs ---- sounds like your from the camp" it's different this time are world leaders are so much smarter"
I don't think the world is going end neither do any of the gurus I follow, they like myself are worried with the mass of easy money an huge debts that very few western countries seem to at all worry about(only recently had the US paid of all it's debt from Vietnam)
-the Total US Debt per Family is-$690,909 average pa income per US family-$61,968

Now if you take all household, corporate and government Debt to GDP Spain's debt ratio is 336.5% of GDP, a legacy of the credit binge that created the real-estate bubble and bust that is the root cause of the slump.

By comparison, the EU's total debt-to-GDP ratio is 258.2%, while it's 242.2% for the U.S. and 243.8% for Greece, according to ISI. (Greek consumers are relatively frugal, with household debt equal to just 61% of GDP, compared the American household debt of 95.7% of GDP.)

Please beacon explain to me how reflating assets and economy with even more debt is going help credit woes worldwide

worth to watch has the most important chart this century

http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay....e03232010.html

[beacon]

The US economy has recovered because of the biggest increase in free money supply ever by the FED to the failed business models of the west.

So you agree that things are getting better. I had the impression these "experts" kept harping about how we need to get into underground bunkers NOW. We were told to expect a W shaped recovery, and that only buying Bullion would be saviour. Maybe I misinterpreted these noble well-meaning 90% success track record Gurus as messengers of doom and gloom.

sounds like your from the camp" it's different this time are world leaders are so much smarter"

I am from the camp "Good to see the movers and shakers working together to tackle a crisis made global as well as worse by media". I hope we have learnt something from our past mistakes

the Total US Debt per Family is-$690,909 average pa income per US family-$61,968 ....

That seems inconsistent with your later statistics "debt-to-GDP ratio is 242.2% for the U.S." and "American household debt is 95.7% of GDP" but I generally agree that the western world is staring at the aftermath of its credit binge. So, what solution would you propose to rectify this situation?

Please beacon explain to me how reflating assets and economy with even more debt is going help credit woes worldwide

Rather than providing explanations, which are easily dismissed as speculation and theories, I'll point you to a factual observation. The sharemarkets across the globe rallied in the last 12 months. What do you think a rallying capital market does to ease credit flows? If you must still have an explanation, here's one you offered in the same post you posed this question "US economy has recovered because of the biggest increase in free money supply ever by the FED"