Is the worst over or is it still to come

[Aaron]

Everything seems much more optimistic these last couple of days. Maybe the next big leg down won't happen and I should stop reading pessimistic views.
What does anyone else think. Big Crash in China to come. US money creation causing hyperinflation? A long slow recovery with some ups and downs.
I don't know if Phaedrus is still around to advise but based on the chart he provided in this thread I think that Based on my chart in incredible charts (which I don't know how to show here) The 120 day moving average has broken the share price line and the 150 days "momentum daily" has broken through 0 so I should be buying at this stage and then working out an exit strategy if things turn down.

Phaedrus the momentum daily doesn't show the same scale as yours and I have assumed 150days what does the other number next to the 150 represent in your chart.
Sorry still haven't applied myself to study. I bought and read the book you recommended but need to go back over it and really try to understand what I am looking at.

[Phaedrus]

Everything seems much more optimistic these last couple of days.

Of course it does - the market is rising!

Maybe the next big leg down won't happen...

It will happen. We just don't know when, that's all. That's why it is important to monitor the overall situation.

What does anyone else think?

Who cares what anyone else thinks? There will always be pessimists and optimists. What the overall market thinks is all that matters.

I should be buying at this stage and then working out an exit strategy if things turn down.

You should have an exit strategy in place before you buy. It needs to be set before you become emotionally involved with the stock.

What does the other momentum daily number next to the 150 represent in your chart?

It is the value of a moving average applied to the base indicator in order to smooth out minor fluctuations.

Aaron, don't base major decisions on any single indicator - you are looking for a broad consensus here. The following chart should demonstrate that choice of indicator and indicator parameters is not crucial - they are all telling the same story, more or less.

[JBmurc]

The squigley line goes green! Buy people buy. ...

yep till next week-- sell sell the line looks grey ---yes IRD I am a trader I will pay tax

[Aaron]

Nearly two years and still waiting for the worst to come.
My question is I use ASB Securities and have money in my cash management account earning .5% waiting for the big crash that may never come.
I want to be able to quickly buy shares if there is a major fall or if I think markets have overreacted to some news on a company.
Is there any savings account or otherwise where I could park my money at a better rate but have it available at the drop of a hat. Term Deposits aren't much good as I want to have access to the funds quickly. Any ideas.

[777]

Nearly two years and still waiting for the worst to come.
My question is I use ASB Securities and have money in my cash management account earning .5% waiting for the big crash that may never come.
I want to be able to quickly buy shares if there is a major fall or if I think markets have overreacted to some news on a company.
Is there any savings account or otherwise where I could park my money at a better rate but have it available at the drop of a hat. Term Deposits aren't much good as I want to have access to the funds quickly. Any ideas.

Direct Broking pay 2.8% on broking account and it is a PIE account.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Aaron Change your broker have a look at Direct Broking's accounts

[Aaron]

Thanks for the advice. I think I'll try the Rabobank Call Account. Hopefully they are not one of the European banks about to get into trouble. They do have the highest credit rating of any bank in NZ last time I looked. I think the Direct Broking fees are similar so will stick with ASB for now.

[Aaron]

Rabos call account is doing OK.

Well over two years waiting for the imminent crash of financial markets. Looks like central banks won't allow deflation and with >$2 petrol cash will probably be trash again.

I am starting to think that the crash won't come and that the central banks will win and inflate away everyones debt. Feeling silly holding cash and saving but am not yet tempted to buy after reading Jim Rogers, Marc Faber. But with inflation we could in effect have a crash if asset prices stay the same while everything else goes up to justify their valuations.

I have made some small speculative buys of small near term producing gold miners and sitting on some sizeable losses(still optimistic re PMs in spite of Skols now famous certainty of an imminent PM wipeout). Am being patient on the crash as I will give it to the end of 2013 before giving up on waiting.

What does everyone else think. Borrow as cash will be trash and interest rates are low?

P.S. I wouldn't borrow for speculative stocks, that is money I can cope with losing. I would borrow against blue chips or infrastructure and utilities. (my leverage plus their leverage means inflation good as long as interest rates don't suddenly go up and govt regulation allows for inflation adjustments)

[Aaron]

Just a random thought. If the US Federal Reserve buys $85billion($NZ101Billion) of bonds each month what is stopping a large wall street bank issuing bonds to the Fed and buying the NZX with a cpaitalisation of about $NZ70 Billion(A few companies they might not want to buy). All this funny money can be used to buy real assets and they can borrow at very low interest rates. It seems crazy and wrong.

P.s. it may pay to check my figures so correct me if I am wrong.

[Aaron]

Well over two years waiting for the imminent crash of financial markets. Looks like central banks won't allow deflation and with >$2 petrol cash will probably be trash again.

I am starting to think that the crash won't come and that the central banks will win and inflate away everyones debt. Feeling silly holding cash and saving but am not yet tempted to buy after reading Jim Rogers, Marc Faber.

OK four/five years since 2009 waiting for another 2007-2009 crash. Maybe it was once in a lifetime opportunity missed. Without interest rates increasing (which I can't see happening in the foreseeable future) shares will continue up as people accept a lower yield with some inflation protection from shares rather than money in the bank.

I don't think I can wait for a correction anymore. Me buying shares would be the surest sign of an imminent financial market correction. Is anyone else waiting for a large correction or am I being silly. Maybe I should invest my savings as I go and if I don't bail out in a large correction use leverage (mortgage & margin) to make the most of a major correction.
Note that I just want to buy good companies at attractive yields without getting in and out of the market. I am trying to time the market but just the once somewhere near the bottom of the next crash.

Actually it seems silly looking back at this thread waiting for the next leg down which may never come.