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  1. #1
    Super Investor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    OK four/five years since 2009 waiting for another 2007-2009 crash. Maybe it was once in a lifetime opportunity missed. Without interest rates increasing (which I can't see happening in the foreseeable future) shares will continue up as people accept a lower yield with some inflation protection from shares rather than money in the bank.

    I don't think I can wait for a correction anymore. Me buying shares would be the surest sign of an imminent financial market correction. Is anyone else waiting for a large correction or am I being silly. Maybe I should invest my savings as I go and if I don't bail out in a large correction use leverage (mortgage & margin) to make the most of a major correction.
    Note that I just want to buy good companies at attractive yields without getting in and out of the market. I am trying to time the market but just the once somewhere near the bottom of the next crash.

    Actually it seems silly looking back at this thread waiting for the next leg down which may never come.
    Just like putting money aside for the rainy day. What happens if it doesn't rain? You may as well not have the money.
    h2

  2. #2
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    I am not a proponent of TA to make investment decisions but as I have been waiting for the next leg down for the last three years, doesn't the XAO aussie index indicate you need to sell your aussie shares.
    NZ50 not there yet. Just looking back at Phadreas's advice further back in this thread. If I could avoid another 2007-2009 that would be great.
    I guess no one knows the future as Mr P says but prices are indicating a downturn are they not. Could the next big leg down be on the horizon or do I have another three years to wait. maybe 2009 was the sale of the century and I have another 96years to wait.

  3. #3
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    Only thing I can tell now is we will have great opportunities in global stocks markets and commodity markets in the coming years and coming decades. There will be bull market somewhere. At different times different stockmarkets, stocks, currencies, commodities and sectors will outperform others.

    There are lot of things to learn including money flow, demand and supply mismatch, group actions, psychology, new demographic trends, megatrends, long term business value, future earnings, new developments, business cycles including currency, commodity cycles and few other important factors related to markets etc.

    Intelligent players will not worry about recession, market volatility,fed decisions, interest rate, currency trend and inflation etc. they will identify opportunities when others make mistake. Lot of people missed the train in stock markets as they were talking about Ex-Japan, higher unemployment,recession and euro crisis etc during last couple of years.

    My ideas are not arecommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do yourown research prior to making any investment decisions
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 27-06-2013 at 10:18 PM.

  4. #4
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    I love threads like these, lessons to be learnt from the overzealous and the overcautious.

  5. #5
    Junior Member buy_high_sell_lo's Avatar
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    Oct 2021
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    Indeed timing the market is a fools errand.

  6. #6
    Senior Member
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    Since timing the market is so difficult, I much rather use the Buffet approach of buying shares. In the 80s Buffet made millions selling put options on CocaCola. You're paid a premium for the option contracts while specifying the agreed lower future price. This works well in a bear market if you want to be assigned.

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