TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

**jim9358** · 01-09-2016, 08:38 PM

5.55 would be awesome! be hard for me to resist topping up CMA with good part of holding ;-)

**Poaix** · 06-09-2016, 01:49 PM

Team, I have read the brokers report from Craigs. A few points I picked up

- the DCF valuation does not factor in the potential growth in China. The upside to this is potentially unlimited.
- the contrary to the above is that all products in this industry must be tested on animals which TIL is against, creating a sort of friction.
- the alternative to this is that individual sellers are selling on their "trademe" equivalent platforms as well as through Hong Kong.
- given the limited exposure, i.e. no flagship stores, TIL still has a strong brand image and if/when it does hit the market in China at a department store/own store level, then it could be huge.
- in conclusion that $5.49 valuation is great news and Craigs speak about it highly. I believe for TIL to go far and beyond $6.00 the investment in China as well as other countries will be the key.

Happy to hear thoughts!

**winner69** · 06-09-2016, 02:08 PM

Originally Posted by Poaix

Team, I have read the brokers report from Craigs. A few points I picked up

- the DCF valuation does not factor in the potential growth in China. The upside to this is potentially unlimited.
- the contrary to the above is that all products in this industry must be tested on animals which TIL is against, creating a sort of friction.
- the alternative to this is that individual sellers are selling on their "trademe" equivalent platforms as well as through Hong Kong.
- given the limited exposure, i.e. no flagship stores, TIL still has a strong brand image and if/when it does hit the market in China at a department store/own store level, then it could be huge.
- in conclusion that $5.49 valuation is great news and Craigs speak about it highly. I believe for TIL to go far and beyond $6.00 the investment in China as well as other countries will be the key.

Happy to hear thoughts!

Love your use of words like unlimited and huge

I implicitly haven't factored anything like unlimited and huge into my DCF and I get a valuation (not a future target) more than $5.55

Wish they wouldn't spend so much on those stupid candles though

**winner69** · 06-09-2016, 02:10 PM

If TIL ever gets to to the ASX it could do a MHJ and almost double in price

Doesn't 10 bucks havea nice ring to it?

**Poaix** · 06-09-2016, 02:21 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

Love your use of words like unlimited and huge

I implicitly haven't factored anything like unlimited and huge into my DCF and I get a valuation (not a future target) more than $5.55

Wish they wouldn't spend so much on those stupid candles though

haha yes you are right. I am getting over excited.

I think to put things in perspective, there are "small" cities in China that are larger than the whole of New Zealand. I have some personal experience in this and feel that the potential is genuinely "huge"

**sb9** · 06-09-2016, 02:41 PM

Good stuff there poaix...

ASM in 2 weeks time would give us bit more updated information in terms revenue and upcoming ASX listing.

**jim9358** · 06-09-2016, 06:05 PM

Originally Posted by Poaix

Team, I have read the brokers report from Craigs. A few points I picked up

- the DCF valuation does not factor in the potential growth in China. The upside to this is potentially unlimited.
- the contrary to the above is that all products in this industry must be tested on animals which TIL is against, creating a sort of friction.
- the alternative to this is that individual sellers are selling on their "trademe" equivalent platforms as well as through Hong Kong.
- given the limited exposure, i.e. no flagship stores, TIL still has a strong brand image and if/when it does hit the market in China at a department store/own store level, then it could be huge.
- in conclusion that $5.49 valuation is great news and Craigs speak about it highly. I believe for TIL to go far and beyond $6.00 the investment in China as well as other countries will be the key.

Happy to hear thoughts!

I guess TIL are smart enough to post the fact to China authority that their products have a track record of safe use on humans = animal tested!!!
...but need verifiable records I guess of tens thousands customers and any or levels of come-back to Retailers of negative reactions! Worth doing but worth being straight up with China with data of "events" or if it went wrong in China later with out-break of health problems, China could destroy TIL !!!

Personally I hate concept of animal testing labs: I saw what a New York lab did to Chimpanzees, THIS YEAR, discarding them to an island to stave to death but for luck of an animal lover accidentally finding them. Half the Chimps have psychoses!

They're building one here at OU !!! Aaaarrrgghh !

**muss1** · 06-09-2016, 07:12 PM

Craig's FY17 estimated numbers are all a bit lower than mine. My numbers were based on some reasonable "market growth rate" assumptions. And that's only my base case and not the best guess case which I think is more likely. For reference my numbers are (I've tweaked my numbers a bit recently):

Base
rev: 113.5m
EBITDA: 25.2m
NPAT: 16.4m
EPS: 23c

Best guess
rev: 118.6m
EBITDA: 27.1m
NPAT: 17.8m
EPS: 25c

If USA, UK,or Asia gets some traction then my numbers might be a bit low. NZ/Aus based on "market growth rates" of 20-30% for base case and slightly better for best guess (for natural products). For Ecoya I've assumed 10-20% growth.