TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[Snow Leopard]

So assorted sources have Trilogy International trading under the code of MPA and even the name Marine Produce Australia.

MPA delisted from the ASX at the end of day on 22-Dec-2010

However before the 6-Dec-2004 MPA was

Tiger International Limited - TIL.

(and the story goes back further and becomes almost mythical.)

Seems my paw is everywhere .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

About 30,000 on the bid side at 288-357

Nobody seems keen on getting this thing moving ....poor effort by Trilogy's advisers / brokers

But it does need a good story to stir the punters up

Hope TIL doesn't turn into a unwanted mutt on the ASX

[stoploss]

About 30,000 on the bid side at 288-357

Nobody seems keen on getting this thing moving ....poor effort by Trilogy's advisers / brokers

But it does need a good story to stir the punters up

Hope TIL doesn't turn into a unwanted mutt on the ASX

Bit of a waste of cash and extra compliance if it ends up a mutt ....., surely they should have maybe appointed a market maker in the stock ?
All those funds that want to buy in now it's ASX listed should be demanding such from their brokers ...

[winner69]

Bit of a waste of cash and extra compliance if it ends up a mutt ....., surely they should have maybe appointed a market maker in the stock ?
All those funds that want to buy in now it's ASX listed should be demanding such from their brokers ...

Poor show eh

Dusappointing

[muss1]

Bizarre.

I still can't see the ASX listing on ANZ trading. I gather this is similar to the ASB issue that was noted on Friday. Could this be part of the problem?

[trader_jackson]

Trader Jackson what is your angle here ? you seem mighty keen to comment on a share you know next to nothing about as evidenced by your recent posts (i.e. Not understanding the trilogy business - TIL/CS company/ecoya, not understanding the recent payment of debt or how TIL compares with BWX outside of a spreadsheet). Weren't you guessing it was set to tank on open, let's see how Aussie trading takes place next week before passing too much judgement.

No I never implied it would tank on the open, just believed there was a false hope that all the Aussie institutions would revalue TIL to similar ratios as BWX, and thus dramatically push up the price...like it was implied on here... but we'll give it some time (although you would have thought the smart money would be one of the first to move on TIL seeing it is an apparent bargain on the ASX currently [?])

Just mentioned, like I noted just after the AGM, that the price was coming down to what I believe was a 'more realistic' price, like now, I was 'told off' for mentioning such things (high $3 is still a way off where I think it should be, given the nearly 0 barriers to entry, barely increasing cash flows, execution risk just to name a few [I recall pumpkin patch was a former darling... although, yes, quite different])

My apologies if I misunderstood their debt arrangements, just read the headline figure off their annual report, although I am not sure how this explains their barely increasing operating cash flow (vs BWX's skyrocketing operating cash flow)... It was also mentioned that a dramatic decrease in gross margin was because of an increasing portion of distribution business, which is understandable... so if they keep driving revenue growth from increasing the portion (of revenue) coming from distribution business, TILs gross margin will continue to drop near double digit figures (while BWX increases theirs?)

We've sorted out the debt, next step is to see why TIL's operating cash flow increased by just a fraction of BWX's increase, and how TIL plan to protect (if not increase) their gross margin, to get back to 'the comparable' BWX. Would be also nice if ASX or who ever updated their systems to reflect TILs new listing properly on the ASX

[winner69]

Hey t_j - you said I was 'told off' for mentioning such things (high $3 is still a way off where I think it should be, given the nearly 0 barriers to entry

Want to risk another 'telling off' by sharing what it should be?

[trader_jackson]

Hey t_j - you said I was 'told off' for mentioning such things (high $3 is still a way off where I think it should be, given the nearly 0 barriers to entry

Want to risk another 'telling off' by sharing what it should be?

For the record, on the 22nd of September:

Sellers rushing in, buyers dropping out... all those institutions will be put off by this 18% or so drop in a couple minutes... next few days will be interesting, if it gets down to something more realistic, say $3, I could be tempted

Next few days were interesting, showed a bounce back... followed by a steady decline (with a few bumps) to around where we were on forecast day (with that decline in share price being quite a bit more than the NZX 50 index decline)

If I was held at gun point, and had to put a number on it, lets just say it would be to the much lower end of $3, although with several companies on the NZX still trading at elevated levels, I suppose TIL is likely to as well.
Product is good, but: alot of execution risk, no barriers to entry, and the financials are 'interesting'
I am not saying TIL will collaspe and burn, just that the current price is taking into account a fair amount less risk that I believe it should

I think that is enough from me on TIL for now, don't want to bring the party down anymore (recent share price performance has done this enough )
Will concentrate more on my robust, well positioned, 'portfolio staples' (with great operating cash flows, high(er) barriers to entry, along side a great product offering... being HBL and ARV for starters )

Disclosure: the above are my views, and yes, I am known to be wrong, occasionally...

[winner69]

For the record, on the 22nd of September:



Next few days were interesting, showed a bounce back... followed by a steady decline (with a few bumps) to around where we were on forecast day (with that decline in share price being quite a bit more than the NZX 50 index decline)

If I was held at gun point, and had to put a number on it, lets just say it would be to the much lower end of $3, although with several companies on the NZX still trading at elevated levels, I suppose TIL is likely to as well.
Product is good, but: alot of execution risk, no barriers to entry, and the financials are 'interesting'
I am not saying TIL will collaspe and burn, just that the current price is taking into account a fair amount less risk that I believe it should

I think that is enough from me on TIL for now, don't want to bring the party down anymore (recent share price performance has done this enough )
Will concentrate more on my robust, well positioned, 'portfolio staples' (with great operating cash flows, high(er) barriers to entry, along side a great product offering... being HBL and ARV for starters )

Disclosure: the above are my views, and yes, I am known to be wrong, occasionally...

Thanks mate. Yes you did post that on the day the market completely over reacted. Spooky it is down at that low again

You also mentioned TIL barely increasing operating cash flow vs BWX's skyrocketing operating cash flow. Interestingly both TIL and BWX have similar cash conversion rates (FCF (adjusted for interest and tax) /EBIT} of just under 60%. You might be asked to apologise again ha ha.

Anyway keep up the good work - plenty of analysis of the PEB accounts soon eh

[muss1]

For the record, on the 22nd of September:



Next few days were interesting, showed a bounce back... followed by a steady decline (with a few bumps) to around where we were on forecast day (with that decline in share price being quite a bit more than the NZX 50 index decline)

If I was held at gun point, and had to put a number on it, lets just say it would be to the much lower end of $3, although with several companies on the NZX still trading at elevated levels, I suppose TIL is likely to as well.
Product is good, but: alot of execution risk, no barriers to entry, and the financials are 'interesting'
I am not saying TIL will collaspe and burn, just that the current price is taking into account a fair amount less risk that I believe it should

I think that is enough from me on TIL for now, don't want to bring the party down anymore (recent share price performance has done this enough )
Will concentrate more on my robust, well positioned, 'portfolio staples' (with great operating cash flows, high(er) barriers to entry, along side a great product offering... being HBL and ARV for starters )

Disclosure: the above are my views, and yes, I am known to be wrong, occasionally...

Thanks for sharing and elaborating on your thoughts.

IMO, $3 is factoring in no future (substantial) growth beyond this year. That is certainly possible, but on the balance of probability it would seem fair to factor in some growth. They have a strong brand, industry tailwinds, are vertically integrated and have a number of overseas markets in their infancy. Only one needs to be moderately successful for significant earnings growth.

So given the above factors I think the risk vs reward equation is favouring the upside.

If earnings flatten off then the SP might round off around $3. If they sell a few products in the USA, UK, Asia or a few more in Aus then an SP of $5+ (I've limited it to 5 so I don't get accused of unrelastic ramping) is entirely possible. I like the equation from here.

I don't know anything about HBL, but I do know what banks are capable of achieving while they 'manage' their risks. Don't forget their perceived 'robustness' is only as good as their 'risk models'... Anyway that's just an example of how we perceive risk differently. I'm more comfortable with TIL's risks than I am with a bank's.