TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[BlackPeter]

You'll be right mate, look at the PE, current price would imply zero growth for a company such as this

Which may or may not be optimistic. Zero growth still would imply them being able to hold their revenue as well as their margin. That's not easy in this industry if your products fall out of fashion.

[King1212]

Which may or may not be optimistic. Zero growth still would imply them being able to hold their revenue as well as their margin. That's not easy in this industry if your products fall out of fashion.

What evidents or research report stating thier thier products are fall out fashion? Your own conclusion? As I know, women are very particular with thier skin products..once they use n like one products...they will stick with it.

the last report did not state thier products are out of fashion...

[winner69]

What evidents or research report stating thier thier products are fall out fashion? Your own conclusion? As I know, women are very particular with thier skin products..once they use n like one products...they will stick with it.

the last report did not state thier products are out of fashion...

Blackpeter did say IF .........mm.....always a risk in this industry eh

[co0p]

What evidents or research report stating thier thier products are fall out fashion? Your own conclusion? As I know, women are very particular with thier skin products..once they use n like one products...they will stick with it.

the last report did not state thier products are out of fashion...

He has none.

TIL had a disruptive 1H of FY17 with the change in distributor in NZ (at the time their largest market) and uncertainty in the Daigou channel.

In FY18 things are a little different. CS&Co is settled as distributor in NZ, the daigou channel has stabilised and they are now selling into China through CBEC (Tmall, VIP and I suspect more to come). Surely there will be some growth...... if not then I will be worried.

[King1212]

Blackpeter did say IF .........mm.....always a risk in this industry eh

any business is risky...even selling condoms is risky..look at Ansell....they have their up and down...

[trader_jackson]

You'll be right mate, look at the PE, current price would imply zero growth for a company such as this

Maybe if the PE got down to 6 or 7 you could say the market is pricing in no growth (see flexigroup, asx - profit forecast of 90 - 93 for year ending 31 June 2017 - market cap of 634m), but TIL's PE is still over 11 (12.7m profit for year ending 31 March 2017 - market cap of 149m)

If the market was really pricing in 0 growth, at the absolute max, a PE should be single digits... ie still more room to fall... so I suppose the market is pricing in growth, just lower growth than about a year ish ago when the share price was $5 (and how everyone was talking about when it would get to $6 or $7 etc etc)

As I have said from the beginning, 0 economic moat with their products - at the end of the day, in my view, they are essentially a retail stock, selling a discretionary good.

[Big Blind]

any business is risky...even selling condoms is risky..look at Ansell....they have their up and down...

They do face stiff competition

[King1212]

Maybe if the PE got down to 6 or 7 you could say the market is pricing in no growth (see flexigroup, asx - profit forecast of 90 - 93 for year ending 31 June 2017 - market cap of 634m), but TIL's PE is still over 11 (12.7m profit for year ending 31 March 2017 - market cap of 149m)

If the market was really pricing in 0 growth, at the absolute max, a PE should be single digits... ie still more room to fall... so I suppose the market is pricing in growth, just lower growth than about a year ish ago when the share price was $5 (and how everyone was talking about when it would get to $6 or $7 etc etc)

As I have said from the beginning, 0 economic moat with their products - at the end of the day, in my view, they are essentially a retail stock, selling a discretionary good.

A harsh view tj. Just like people saying the akl property price is on going down..to sell all retirement stocks n property stocks.

[stoploss]

A harsh view tj. Just like people saying the akl property price is on going down..to sell all retirement stocks n property stocks.

Not sure that is the right comparsion , everyone needs somewhere to live .

On the other hand they can do without a sixty dollar candle ...maybe substitute with a cheaper one from bed bath and beyond or WHS .
As for skincare products very competitive as well , big guys can crush your margins with discounting etc

[King1212]

Not sure that is the right comparsion , everyone needs somewhere to live .

On the other hand they can do without a sixty dollar candle ...maybe substitute with a cheaper one from bed bath and beyond or WHS .
As for skincare products very competitive as well , big guys can crush your margins with discounting etc

Ahah...bought the warehouse one..on special..choose the most expensive one $40 retail price. Got it for $10. Burnt it...can not smell anything..my dog pooh is smelling stronger than the warehouse one.