TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[Snow Leopard]

Really?
Attachment 7939

Yes. really.
I have very kindly grouped the sections by the way they read as opposed to the way they are bordered.


Best Wishes
Paper 'Rap Star' Tiger

[trader_jackson]

Given the whole market, particularly in New Zealand, has been rather strong lately, combined with a seemingly unstoppable increase in TIL's share price, why would there be a need for a 'major player' such as the Chairman to sell now (especially so much of his holding!?) Maybe he wanted to build a new deck although it looks to be a pretty expensive deck... I'm surprised the alarm bells aren't ringing louder!

[Cricketfan]

Yes. really.
I have very kindly grouped the sections by the way they read as opposed to the way they are bordered.


Best Wishes
Paper 'Rap Star' Tiger

Thanks for clearing that up, I've always had trouble reading those things. Very badly designed forms, aren't they?

[noodles]

It seems some folk on this forum think that the massive increase in the share price makes TIL appear to be in a bubble. For me, I think there is an earnings bubble.
Lets look at NPBT (1000's)
FY13=88
FY14=1,260
FY15=4,600
FY16=13,000 (at least)
FY17=20,369 (my estimate)

If they do make my estimate, they will be cheaper than the average NZX stock (on a pe basis)

[noodles]

Angela Buglass (CEO) talks to Carly Flynn
http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Life-bala...9/Default.aspx

[winner69]

It seems some folk on this forum think that the massive increase in the share price makes TIL appear to be in a bubble. For me, I think there is an earnings bubble.
Lets look at NPBT (1000's)
FY13=88
FY14=1,260
FY15=4,600
FY16=13,000 (at least)
FY17=20,369 (my estimate)

If they do make my estimate, they will be cheaper than the average NZX stock (on a pe basis)

That 20,369 is higher than the number I have in my $4.43 base valuation

The growth case valuation f $5.62 has f17 npbt as 22.400

We pretty much on the same page noodles.

So share price over $4 pretty soon I reckon

[winner69]

Buyers starting to bid up a fair chunk at 3-35. To mention in the trading update that figures will exceed certain values suggests these figures have already been met I wouldnt therefore be suprised to see a > $90M revenue figure when the fy results are provided.

A >$90m revenue figures would blow better mine forecast and probably noodles's one as well

That $4.43 valuation of mine looking a bit light as time goes, esp Ecoya starts earning its keep as well

[winner69]

Noodles - an earnings bubble eh. Not a good phrase to use

Kate goes off this special oil she uses and the earnings bubble bursts ......

[winner69]

My mum gave me a daily dose of rosehip syrup - don't know what for but heck look what it's done to me

[Beagle]

Funny thing about cosmetics, (drawing on many years of professional association with a privately owned distributor here), women can be very fickle customers...what's hot one minute isn't so cool when all the ladies start talking about another wonder cosmetic that makes them look even younger. What happens when Kate finds something different she likes better...food for thought ?

Just as an aside for some of you folks out there...I've been struggling with dry itchy eyelids for years and this stuff that my local charming lady at the pharmacy got me on too is the bee knees for solving that problem and any other dry and itchy skin issues you may have. No it isn't made by Trilogy and I don't think Comvita own it either but it really works and is inexpensive http://www.apicare.co.nz/products/ma...0-honey-creme/ Still I suppose nobody will care what I think because I'm not nearly as pretty or famous as Kate, not by a long shot LOL.

The point to this post other than to help anyone who has the same problem which in and of itself may make this post worthwhile, is a salient reminder that there's a ton of different products out there and to pose the question, just for the sake of playing devil's advocate of where's the moat for TIL ? Every man and his neighbour's dog is making cosmetics claiming all natural ingredients yada yada yada and I've seen growth can turn on a dime in the cosmetics industry when what's hot starts to cool off. Maybe it'll be different for TIL, who can know for sure but I won't gamble on it...PE is too rich for my blood.

A director selling a big part of their personal stake is never a good sign. Look no further than Mrs Barlow's sale of a decent part of her stake in SUM as a prime example...SP did Jack for nearly two years after that. My 2 cents.