HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

http://www.thebreakfastclub.org.nz/

mentioned on another thread

May 28th ..... roll up to the an inspiring sermon from the man himself ..... probably more hysteria than at a Billy Graham gathering of old unless they restrict who is allowed to go

What a day it could be .... HNZ hits a buck and Jeff preaches to the converted

[winner69]

sincere apologies for the above post .... jeff will probably inspire the young wannabe bankers that morning

[percy]

sincere apologies for the above post .... jeff will probably inspire the young wannabe bankers that morning

Don't see your mate from the Co-op on the list of speakers?
Maybe he is not an early riser?

[percy]

Gold, pure gold!

77c today on almost 1 million shares traded. And a 2c dividend is struck in a few days time. I'm reluctant to give short term pricing guesstimates, and I'm far more a fundy than a technician, but the technicals suggest the move up is only starting... (RSI, Parabolics, BBands and MACD all look like they are starting an upwards trend)

SNOOPY's record stands intact. 100% wrong.!!!! lol.

[Snoopy]

Also I mentioned that I believed Heartland was risky, and I still believe that. That is not the same thing as saying Heartland is on the way to inevitable trouble.

I am not sure that I have explained the above point clearly.

Risk in this context is a probability assessment of a possible outcome. There is both good risk, where the company has a result far in excess of analyst expectations and bad risk where the result is far worse. In my assessment HNZ possesses both of these kind of risks. I mentioned in a previous post that HNZ was a real investment and one of the few shares on the NZx where significant gains were possible. However such gains were never certain even if management does everything right that they can control.

I am consistently on record as saying that I woudl invest in HNZ if the capital position was more secure. Going after seasonal farm finance instead of financing the land itself might be a good strategy, but it also requires a higher capital ratio in the long term. In my assessment following what seems to be a sensible strategy will ultimately require more capital. That means a discounted share placement or rights issue. In my judgement that will be the best time to enter HNZ to balance the upside risks against the downside risks. The further the share price rises in the interim, the worse the entry point for long term investors.

The half year report does not contain the information needed to judge how HNZ is going long term. So I will reserve all judgements until the full year report comes out (as I have said before). If other people want to gamble on the outcome before then, well good luck to them. I will be staying out, no matter what happens to the share price until that fulll year information is out

SNOOPY

[percy]

I am not sure that I have explained the above point clearly.

Risk in this context is a probability assessment of a possible outcome. There is both good risk, where the company has a result far in excess of analyst expectations and bad risk where the result is far worse. In my assessment HNZ possesses both of these kind of risks. I mentioned in a previous post that HNZ was a real investment and one of the few shares on the NZx where significant gains were possible. However such gains were never certain even if management does everything right that they can control.

I am consistently on record as saying that I woudl invest in HNZ if the capital position was more secure. Going after seasonal farm finance instead of financing the land itself might be a good strategy, but it also requires a higher capital ratio in the long term. In my assessment following what seems to be a sensible strategy will ultimately require more capital. That means a discounted share placement or rights issue. In my judgement that will be the best time to enter HNZ to balance the upside risks against the downside risks. The further the share price rises in the interim, the worse the entry point for long term investors.

The half year report does not contain the information needed to judge how HNZ is going long term. So I will reserve all judgements until the full year report comes out (as I have said before). If other people want to gamble on the outcome before then, well good luck to them. I will be staying out, no matter what happens to the share price until that fulll year information is out

SNOOPY

Again you will be proved WRONG.They have more than enough capital.Only time they will come to the market,as I have stated before,is if they takeover FPF.That would be welcome by the market,and would be strongly supported.

[percy]

Yep, 100% in agreement with Percy. This is exactly what a senior executive at Heartland said to me as well when I asked him. if anything, they may return surplus capital...

Now that is something;if anything, they may return surplus capital.!!!!!!!!!
All through this thread a number of posters have said HNZ will be raising capital.WRONG.
You really are picking up the correct information by talking to the right people.
Great research,and thank you for sharing it with us.

[mouse]

Percy, you wrote that at 7.15am today. What on earth are you doing out of bed at that time? It could have serious effects on your health. I, at 9.40am, have only just finished breakfast! And am not really awake.How on earth can you even THINK at that time in the morning?

Now that is something;if anything, they may return surplus capital.!!!!!!!!!
All through this thread a number of posters have said HNZ will be raising capital.WRONG.
You really are picking up the correct information by talking to the right people.
Great research,and thank you for sharing it with us.

[percy]

They have more than enough capital to do that. What we are talking about are sufficient funds for a quality acquisition.

They will absolutely consider a first class acquisition like Fisher and Paykel Finance, should that come up for sale. They will not buy a second class acquisition. It must be a quality one.

If FPF was to come up for purchase, then they would no doubt go to shareholders or the market for a rights issue/capital raise/whichever.

Should FPF come HNZ's way,not only would shareholders support it,but I think the instos would be very keen it too.

[percy]

lol, very enthusiastic for 7:15 am! I'm out of the shower by then, but nowhere near thinking about shares and the market at that time!

Tomorrow morning I will be on the road to Geraldine and Timaru schools at 6.30am .The cat loves the alarm going off at 5 or 5.30 am early breakfast goes down a treat.Have my shower the night before.Usually try to see what the Dow has done and check out Cavotec's price on Sweedish exchange ,before I hit the road.Must be careful not to post on sharetrader,as being a slow typist,I run out of time.
ps.I dream of shares.!!!