HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Beagle]

Just like manna from heaven eh

Incredible

And you don't have to stay in the desert for 40 years either
Was buying more mid last week at $1.63 as well. As pierre posted its nice to get a dividend on the new ones issued under the SPP at $1.46 too.
All adds up.

[janner]

And you don't have to stay in the desert for 40 years either
Was buying more mid last week at $1.63 as well. As pierre posted its nice to get a dividend on the new ones issued under the SPP at $1.46 too.
All adds up.

Been in from the beginning... Regret having sold down from being in the top 150 shareholders ( purchased in the 50/60 cents range ) as it rose unbalancing the portfolio..

However... Still have enough arriving in the DRP to keep me smiling.. Will be thinking more than thrice before any more are up for sale..

Disc. Happy long term holder...

[percy]

Sure is - and getting the interim divi on the new shares purchased at $1.46 only a few weeks back just adds to the pleasure of being an HBL shareholder.

Thanks once again to Percy for putting me on to this amazing opportunity that so far has generated well over $100k in capital gain for me not to mention tens of thousands in dividends. Wouldn't have done it without you Percy - I owe you big time!
Merci beaucoup.
Pierre

Thank you for the kind words.
I think in hindsight a number of us saw this was going to be a cracker.
Funny enough, the biggest giveaway was the sense of pride each director radiated at the agms,being a director of Heartland.There was no hidding it.It was still there at the last agm. I remember well, the then chairman Bruce Irvine, stating at an early agm, held in Ashburton, Heartland would receive their banking licence, shortly.An extrodinary statement,but offcourse he was right.At the same agm Jeff Greenslade spoke of getting their ROE up to 10% from about 3% within 3 years.And he did.!Since then Heartland have spoken in plain language ,what their objectives are.Happily for us they achieve what they set out to do.
The current share price indicates "the market" expects HBL to continue to produce "the goods."
I am sure they will.

[iceman]

Thank you for the kind words.
I think in hindsight a number of us saw this was going to be a cracker.
Funny enough, the biggest giveaway was the sense of pride each director radiated at the agms,being a director of Heartland.There was no hidding it.It was still there at the last agm. I remember well, the then chairman Bruce Irvine, stating at an early agm, held in Ashburton, Heartland would receive their banking licence, shortly.An extrodinary statement,but offcourse he was right.At the same agm Jeff Greenslade spoke of getting their ROE up to 10% from about 3% within 3 years.And he did.!Since then Heartland have spoken in plain language ,what their objectives are.Happily for us they achieve what they set out to do.
The current share price indicates "the market" expects HBL to continue to produce "the goods."
I am sure they will.

And that is exactly what it is all about and has been for many years. They know what they are doing and they deliver the goods. What more can we ask for ? Have to admit though that for the first time in all those years I took the cash instead of the DRP. Mainly to use it for SUM to re-balance my portfolio a little

[beetills]

I see aJEFF GREENSLADE has a share in NELSON PARK racing at Counties today at 2.45pm.
Wonder if its HEARTLANDS chief.

[percy]

I see aJEFF GREENSLADE has a share in NELSON PARK racing at Counties today at 2.45pm.
Wonder if its HEARTLANDS chief.

If it is I hope it runs like Heartland..................well....!

[beetills]

If it is I hope it runs like Heartland..................well....!

A bit of improvement required based on that effort,however if he/she improves like HEARTLAND has then a win shouldn't be that far away

[Beagle]

Why its worth more.
1. We cannot ignore the fact that HBL has grown its EPS faster in recent years than the Aussie banks.
2. This trend is set to continue, see below therefore a PE premium is warranted compared to its peer group.
3. The following are the forecast PE's for its peer group for FY17, FY18 and FY19 followed by average analyst expected EPS growth in percentage terms bolded from FY17 to FY19 All data off average analysis forecast off 4 traders
Bendigo BEN 13.2, 13.1, 13.3, EPS growth expected -1%
NAB 13.6, 13.4, 13 4%
WBC 14.5, 14, 13.6 6%
ANZ 13.4, 13.2 12.5 7%
Bank of Queensland BOQ 12.9, 12.6 12.3 4.5%
HBL 13.8 12.6 11.9 14%

The average FY19 PE which takes into account average forecasted growth to FY19 is 12.77

4. Even if you make the case, (which I don't) that HBL will only enjoy two more years of abnormal growth before reverting to the very modest rates the Australian banks are "enjoying" for HBL to be trading at the average of its peer group the SP is likely to outperform its peer group by 12.77 / 11.9 = 7.3% over the next two years.

5. Even now based on average estimated 2017 earnings the peer group is trading at an average PE of 13.56 and HBL at 13.8 represents only a tiny premium which taking into account its historical growth outperformance and projected stronger growth and I think the current market PE premium is not properly recognizing this superior growth.

6. I think given the distinct possibility that HBL's growth will continue to outperform its peers post FY19 I think that a minimum further 7.3% rerating will happen over the foreseeable future, probably this year.

7. Relative to its peer group I therefore value HBL at 1.64 + 7.3% = $1.76.

8. I think you can easily make the case that relative to its peer group given its considerably stronger historical and projected growth a PE premium of 1 on FY17 projected earnings is warranted.
Average FY 17 PE for Aussie banks excl HBL is 13.52.
HBL's current PE 13.8 HBL should be trading on a FY17 PE premium of at least 1 = 14.52 14.52 / 13.8 = 5.2% increase from here = $1.73

9. Investment case summary: I therefore think fair value for HBL is between $1.73 and $1.76 on an ex dividend basis and note it currently trades on a theoretical ex dividend price of $1.60.5 ($1.64- 0.035) so we have another ~ 10% rerating to go and then from there the price should continue to drift up in line with the 14% earnings growth to FY 19. My 2 year target price is therefore 1.76 x 1.14 = $2.01 and in the meantime based on 8.5 cps in annual fully imputed dividends we will be enjoying a gross dividend yield of 7.36% (8.5 / 160.5) / 0.72.
Disc: Hold and fully subscribed to dividend reinvestment plan.

Posted 16 March 2017, wherein I believe I made the case convincingly that on a relative basis fair value for HBL ex divvy was at least $1.73-1.76. Looks like coming to pass pretty soon, whereupon I'll revisit the relative value and update my assessment of fair value. In the meantime I'm a happy holder and see little merit in holding deposit money in the bank...might as well have your investment in the bank in equity !

[percy]

[QUOTE=percy;658192]On its way to $2.00 the HBL share price will be $1.96 at 4.35 pm on Thursday 21st of September this year.
Unfortunately, we may then have to until mid morning on the 31st of January 2018. for it to go through $2.00.


Above Posted 08-03-2017.
With HBL's sp at $1.70 today, it looks as though that $1.96 and $2.00 are ontrack.
Maybe sooner than later?

[winner69]

Will HBL get to 2 bucks before EBO gets to 20 bucks