HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Joshuatree]

If you joined together you would make a Team Pergle or Beaper, a Perbea or a Gleper

[percy]

If you joined together you would make a Team Pergle or Beaper, a Perbea or a Gleper

Yeah right.!!!...lol.
Do you think another .............you know who's " fail" posts will get us up to $2.00.??

[Beagle]

Percy - I thought I was pretty brave topping-up yesterday at $1.82...had to take a deep breath and think long term, five years down the track to pay that but when you start thinking long term the current price is still a compelling opportunity on a sensible PE compared to the vast majority of other stocks on the NZX. Steady growth is the key here. Yes agreed, I don't often post what I am doing in real time for exactly the reason you pointed out.

[winner69]

All time high ........awesome

Even more awesome when it hits 2 bucks ....before the end of the month ......before the announcement? Or after?

[percy]

Percy - I thought I was pretty brave topping-up yesterday at $1.82...had to take a deep breath and think long term, five years down the track to pay that but when you start thinking long term the current price is still a compelling opportunity on a sensible PE compared to the vast majority of other stocks on the NZX. Steady growth is the key here. Yes agreed, I don't often post what I am doing in real time for exactly the reason you pointed out.

Yes thinking five to ten years out,makes you see things a bit differently.
Over the past 10 years we have seen outstanding performances of companies "doing what they say they will do."
OK the likes of AIA and POT have huge moats around them,but others such as,,EBO FPH,FRE, MFT,and RYM have succeeded by having outstanding leadership,and directors with a lot of "skin in the game.".When MFT listed it was just another trucking firm.EBO was just a very small medical supply firm.Yet we now see them trading on PEs of between 21[EBO] and 24 {MFT].RYM were bringing a new approach to a very poorly rated sector?!!!
So although today we may think HBL is fully priced,the market appears to be looking further ahead than us.
ps.In real time I am neither a buyer or seller,just a happy dividend collector.

[Snow Leopard]

Percy - I thought I was pretty brave topping-up yesterday at $1.82...had to take a deep breath and think long term, five years down the track to pay that but when you start thinking long term the current price is still a compelling opportunity on a sensible PE compared to the vast majority of other stocks on the NZX. Steady growth is the key here...

This is a dangerous mind-state to fall into.

Those that do valuations properly have looked in the future, determined likely growth, made allowance for different possible scenarios and come up with a value which is less than the current market price.

Buying at a price now because you hope that value will catch up in a few years is not an astute purchase.

It is nearly as bad as coming up with 'novel' valuation techniques to try and justify over paying for a stock.

Meanwhile the share price continues the relentless climb and long may it continue, except for a sudden dramatic, but temporary, drop during DRiP price calculation time.



Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Yes thinking five to ten years out,makes you see things a bit differently.
Over the past 10 years we have seen outstanding performances of companies "doing what they say they will do."
OK the likes of AIA and POT have huge moats around them,but others such as,,EBO FPH,FRE, MFT,and RYM have succeeded by having outstanding leadership,and directors with a lot of "skin in the game.".When MFT listed it was just another trucking firm.EBO was just a very small medical supply firm.Yet we now see them trading on PEs of between 21[EBO] and 24 {MFT].RYM were bringing a new approach to a very poorly rated sector?!!!
So although today we may think HBL is fully priced,the market appears to be looking further ahead than us.
ps.In real time I am neither a buyer or seller,just a happy dividend collector.

Yes mate you pay BIG BIG money for moat's on the NZX with the likes of AIA and POT trading well over a PE of 30 last time I looked....too rich for my liking as is FPH.
Better off combing through the quality well managed companies trading on a sensible PE with their own niche, lots more upside potential over the years ahead.
Last time I crunched the numbers HBL trading on a FY18 prospective PE in the late 13's seems very reasonably priced by comparison to the market overall and to its peer group by virtue of its superior growth rate and of course we know the Australian Govt in its "infinite wisdom" has just handed the Australian banks a special tax.

[beetills]

Just looking at an add for a Holden Colorado with finance at 1% from HBL.
Establishment fees of $656.That fee appears to be the highest that i have seen from various financing options.
Some ones making money somewhere.

[suse]

anyone have any thoughts on what is likely to happen re the share price around the election?

HBL makes up 80% of my portfolio and I will need to cash it in soon to help fund something else, although realistically I probably dont need it until early next year. If I could hang on to all my shares I'd be quite happy to be honest as the divvies are good (no DRP for me, I like cold hard cash )

[BlackPeter]

anyone have any thoughts on what is likely to happen re the share price around the election?

HBL makes up 80% of my portfolio and I will need to cash it in soon to help fund something else, although realistically I probably dont need it until early next year. If I could hang on to all my shares I'd be quite happy to be honest as the divvies are good (no DRP for me, I like cold hard cash )

Not sure I'd expect the election (no matter which way it goes) to make a big dent into HBL's share price - unless we draw the alleged link to the dairy market (not sure I am convinced, but some are) and assume that an all out victory for Green would crash our dairy industry.

Obviously - if the election outcome is leading into long negotiations and an unstable minority government (which is a distinct possibility), than all NZX shares (including HBL) are likely to suffer.

Independent from elections and HBL's specific expected performance - if you know that you need the money at a specified point in time (and that's months, not years), than I know what I would do: sell out soon and put the money you need early next year into a bank account. Sure - you might miss out on a 10% appreciation, but you might as well miss out on a 20% drop. Could you live with the latter?