Chatham Rock Phosphate - CRP

[Balance]

So no one loves CRP....fair enough..from a contrary point of view now would be a good time to be buying...Chris Castle has put forward a perfectly viable business case..which when the permit is granted..(with conditions no doubt)..should turn this company into a profitable venture...

What is CRP's breakeven phosphate rock price? It has fallen like most commodities and is now trading at 25% of what it was in 2008!

[croesus]

What is CRP's breakeven phosphate rock price? It has fallen like most commodities and is now trading at 25% of what it was in 2008!

so is that correct.. ?

Phosphate out of Morrocco, landed in NZ, and available to be loaded into a Top Dressing plane.. or Fert truck is 25% of the price 6 years ago ?

Can you show me some stats, or are you grabbing numbers out of the air ?

[Balance]

so is that correct.. ?

Phosphate out of Morrocco, landed in NZ, and available to be loaded into a Top Dressing plane.. or Fert truck is 25% of the price 6 years ago ?

Can you show me some stats, or are you grabbing numbers out of the air ?

Was US$430 per metric tonne in Sept 2008 - now it is US$115. Was US$101 beginning of year.

Do a google search - you will find it's all there.

[croesus]

That's interesting so its up approx 15% ... in 10 months.

Imagine what the price will be if ISIL move on to Morrocco.. they have Algeria and Western Sahara as neighbours.

hmmph

[MAC]

The phosphate market was looking pretty good in 2008 too Croesus due to unrest in North Africa, wouldn't you say.

The independent phosphate market reports I have don’t indicate another peak like that is likely, but as you wisely say it just takes the islamic state to move into the area, and it becomes an above and beyond bonus for CRP.

Both the two analyst reports I have both indicate that Chatham Rock is very profitable indeed with a long run average market price at $125/t, their valuations are $1.79 and $1.30 respectively.

Attachment 6428

If anyone is actually looking for a balanced view the latest Edison report for Chatham Rock may be found here;

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....ock-phosphate5

[BlackPeter]

I believe they have resource consent.... its marine consent they still need to achieve. Splitting hairs maybe but does show what they have to go through. Any other poster please correct me if I am wrong with the above statement about consents.

OK - if you want to play it this way, here are some different permit types:

http://www.mineralswestcoast.co.nz/p...gislation.aspx

They currently have a mining permit, which is however worthless without the as well required environmental marine consent, check:
http://www.epa.govt.nz/EEZ/working_e...lications.aspx

The marine consent is currently pending (i.e. in front of the deciding committee).

[BlackPeter]

What is CRP's breakeven phosphate rock price? It has fallen like most commodities and is now trading at 25% of what it was in 2008!

From memory - their estimated mining cost are something like NZD 100 per ton. Below the current price (USD 115), but not a lot of buffer.

[MAC]

From memory - their estimated mining cost are something like NZD 100 per ton. Below the current price (USD 115), but not a lot of buffer.

I would recommend a read of the 2013 capital raising document or the Edison report BlackPeter.

The anticipated Boskalis operating fee is anticipated to be US$85/t. One must bear in mind that is a fee for both phosphate recovery and for landing the phosphate at port in NZ. The importation costs alone for Moroccan phosphate is around US$70/t, that’s after one pays US$125/t FOB.

It's the long run phosphate price that is important though, not spot price this year or last.

Adjustments also need to be made, downward for P2O5 composition and upward for several other specific physical properties of the Chatham rise phosphate. Particularly the DAP properties which, as I understand, can demand a retail premium of up to $NZ100 more than other phosphates.

Also, the CRP model is more complex than just assessing it against Moroccan prices. CRP intend to sell phosphate in eight countries each with different product mixes, value propositions and gross margins.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/202577.pdf

trust this assists,

kind regards, Mac

[MAC]

I believe they have resource consent.... its marine consent they still need to achieve. Splitting hairs maybe but does show what they have to go through. Any other poster please correct me if I am wrong with the above statement about consents.

CRP have a mining permit Blackcap to recover phosphate as per the Boskalis proposal, as below.

http://static.squarespace.com/static...AUSIMM2013.pdf

It's required by NZP&M to ensure the miner is adopting the best practicable environmental and efficient processes for recovering the phosphate and for establishing what royalties the Crown should receive. All that is done and dusted.

What CRP require presently is a marine consent to be granted under the EEZ Act.

“The purpose of the EEZ Act is to promote the sustainable management of the natural resources of an area”

The key words are ‘promote’ and ‘sustainable’, it’s effectively the balance between the two that the DMC must decide on, or most probably IMO, to determine balancing environment controls so to apply as balancing conditions.

[NT001]

Here's a new development. I'm not exactly sure of its implications but presumably it will affect the SP

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/257007