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  1. #12481
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major von Tempsky View Post
    I think the Left Whingers need to note a couple of things.

    (1) the proportion of home ownership in NZ is about 60%. These home owners are secretly watching the increase in value of their property and in the secrecy of the ballot box they will be voting for the party that that will allow it to continue - National.
    And as long as this proportion is 50 or more that will continue.

    (2) the lesson of Christchurch which seems to have completely gone over Labour/Greens head.
    After the earthquakes DOOM was forecast for Christchurch, not enough housing, not enough housing for the construction workers to rebuild Christchurch, huge inflation for Christchurch.
    Didn't happen. The higher demand induced higher supply, and more temporary housing was erected. Now the peak has passed, some of the temporary housing has been taken away, rents are very reasonable compared to the North Island and property prices are reasonable compared to the North Island and the inflation hasn't happened. The peak of the rebuild has passed. And National will win the Party Vote for Christchurch again.
    Too right MVT. There is a lot of misinformation being thrown about. Labour is running its election campaign on 2 main themes, housing afforadability and immigration.

    The housing affordability as measured nationwide by the home mortgage affordability index is actually quite a bit lower now than it was when National took office, meaning houses on average are more affordable than 9 years ago. This is supported by much lower interest rates but also with much higher average annual household income which has grown (inflation adjusted) from $ 81,000 to $ 94,300 since 2008.
    Of course Auckland is a special case but not so the rest of the country.

    Immigration is also a bit debatable. While some Aucklanders and Labour are blaming high house prices solely on immigration, other parts of the country are pleading with the Government not to cut temporary immigration as the regions struggle to find workers. Federated Farmers, Horticulture NZ, Tourism NZ and now the Mayors in Canterbury are all calling for the Government not to cut immigration at the moment, to avoid slowing down the much needed economic activity/growth around the regions.

    Despite the big numbers being reported in alarming headlines in the media with regard to immigration, it appears that many of these new immigrants are here temporarily for work and then return back to their home countries. This is best seen by the fact that in 2008-2009 NZ granted 46,100 residency permits and in 2016-2017 we granted 43,700 residency permits.

    Is it possible that once again Labour are barking up the wrong tree ?
    Last edited by iceman; 24-06-2017 at 07:51 PM.

  2. #12482
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    (1) the proportion of home ownership in NZ is about 60%. These home owners are secretly watching the increase in value of their property and in the secrecy of the ballot box they will be voting for the party that that will allow it to continue - National.
    And as long as this proportion is 50 or more that will continue. ...
    I imagine many, if not most people, do vote for the party they think will benefit them most.

    I think home ownership rates are still dropping but nationally it is still probably above 50%. Things are slowing in Auckland.

    Some home-owners may see their children effectively shut out of buying a home unless they, as homeowners, remortgage their homes to help their children with a deposit. So the number of home owners who will be voting National may well be decreasing.

  3. #12483
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    The housing affordability as measured nationwide by the home mortgage affordability index is actually quite a bit lower now than it was when National took office, meaning houses on average are more affordable than 9 years ago. This is supported by much lower interest rates but also with much higher average annual household income which has grown (inflation adjusted) from $ 81,000 to $ 94,300 since 2008.
    Of course Auckland is a special case but not so the rest of the country...
    With first home buyers, deposit affordability is particularly relevant. In recent years, I think the amount needed for a deposit for NZexAuck (as well as Auckland of course) has outstripped the increase in after-tax incomes. So saving for a deposit is becoming more difficult.

    In the Auckland market:
    First-time house buyers worst hit as house sales fall by 30%

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11881164
    Last edited by Bjauck; 24-06-2017 at 09:52 PM.

  4. #12484
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    With first home buyers, deposit affordability is particularly relevant. In recent years, I think the amount needed for a deposit for NZexAuck (as well as Auckland of course) has outstripped the increase in after-tax incomes. So saving for a deposit is becoming more difficult........
    That assumes that individual households can't increase their income and/or reduce their expenditure. Of course they can do both. Just one example, a second job or overtime for a couple of years esp for DINKs would be a huge help towards a deposit, even in Auckland.

  5. #12485
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    Corrin Dann and Paddy Gower both grilled the PM over the Todd Barclay debacle over the weekend. In what is increasingly expressed as Billsh*t, the Hon Bill English said he just said what was in his mind at the time, when asked if he'd heard from Todd directly about the tape.

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-...barclay-affair

    http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/...l-english.html

    He also looked pretty uncomfortable in both interviews and his eyes were darting around. Not a good start to the conference, where it's reported there was talk of uncosted tax cuts, when we all know the country is largely going backwards due to a lack of enough public capital investment and decent policy.
    Last edited by elZorro; 26-06-2017 at 06:35 AM.

  6. #12486
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    Poor EZ - how desperate Labour must be to keep banging on something which is not even a storm in a teacup.

    Wouldn't it be better to work on the log in Labour's eye? I guess really - how can anybody who is concerned about social issues (and I believe you are) support a party which circumvents our Labour laws and resources their campaign with slave labour paying foreign workers nothing for doing a 40 hour job?

    https://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/nz-pol...issing-million


    Ah yes - and remind me - wasn't it Labour which proposed to lock anybody up who is accused of a sex crime, unless they can prove their innocence?

    Boy, the party once called "grand" but now only "old" has issues ... don't waste your energy in focussing on fine-tuning a good government - better clean up your own mess and start to become at least a credible opposition party. Lots of work to do: Regaining some integrity, starting to listen to the people instead of preaching left wing ideology and picking a leader who can win might be a good start. I guess - how can anybody win an election who has not even the full support from their own party and caucus?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 26-06-2017 at 09:54 AM. Reason: added link to NBR article
    ----
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  7. #12487
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    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post
    That assumes that individual households can't increase their income and/or reduce their expenditure. Of course they can do both. Just one example, a second job or overtime for a couple of years esp for DINKs would be a huge help towards a deposit, even in Auckland.
    That is irrelevant when measuring that house prices have increased at a pace that out-strips average incomes.

    However you are right if people boosted their work hours to 60 hours a week today, then deposits may be as affordable as they were fifteen years when people only had to work for 40 hours a week!

    Of course if they are not already working to the limit, people could try to increase the hours they work to try to save the increasing amount needed for a deposit. Although I guess this has always happened through the decades when people have been saving for a deposit. They could become a ménage à trois to get a third earner to help save for a deposit too.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 26-06-2017 at 08:06 AM.

  8. #12488
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    The suggestions, that Winston wants to be Prime Minister or Governor General are wrong. Since the announcement by Prince Harry, that most Royals are reluctant to take the top job, Winston has raised his sights and is now studying the prospect of becoming Queen. You will soon begin to notice a marked change in his accent, makeup and hairstyle. He has Little lined up as a pageboy.

  9. #12489
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    Quote Originally Posted by craic View Post
    The suggestions, that Winston wants to be Prime Minister or Governor General are wrong. Since the announcement by Prince Harry, that most Royals are reluctant to take the top job, Winston has raised his sights and is now studying the prospect of becoming Queen. You will soon begin to notice a marked change in his accent, makeup and hairstyle. He has Little lined up as a pageboy.
    LOL - this post made my day !

    Do you expect that the taxpayer needs to fork out for his (oops - her) gender change or will this be funded by the party?
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  10. #12490
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    That is irrelevant when measuring that house prices have increased at a pace that out-strips average incomes.

    However you are right if people boosted their work hours to 60 hours a week today, then deposits may be as affordable as they were fifteen years when people only had to work for 40 hours a week!

    Of course if they are not already working to the limit, people could try to increase the hours they work to try to save the increasing amount needed for a deposit. Although I guess this has always happened through the decades when people have been saving for a deposit. They could become a ménage à trois to get a third earner to help save for a deposit too.
    There will always be people who whinge and moan and find excuses to do not much. And then there are those who knuckle down and get on with it.

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