That's great data, W69, cheers for that. If I filled out one of those surveys, I'd be tempted to be a bit political too.
What I noticed from the graphs is that while there was a definite offset depending on whether National or Labour were in power, the prediction trends within the terms of office tended to be about right. Business people could predict two quarters out, what was likely to happen in the wider economy, for better or worse. So I can't fully agree with Rodney, as this sudden downturn in the confidence survey, both for the wider economy and their own businesses, is probably real. It certainly lines up with the thoughts of the regional business owners I've been talking to, plus some who are exporters and based in the cities. We are all fairly scared about the sales prospects going forward.
The ANZ prediction charts both peaked positively just before the last general election. Actual results in GDP growth weren't so good.
The other point is that Labour's policies achieved GDP growth in the face of those earlier pessimistic surveys, quite good growth that the businesses must have seen, despite their political persuasions. And it was done when we didn't have record immigration. I wonder how bad the National Govt's GDP growth data would look, if we took away the wealthier immigrant effect. Although the population of NZ has been trending upwards since at least 1990, at a fairly constant rate. Labour achieved a peak of 6.5% GDP growth at one stage, National hasn't managed better than 3.5%, and that was in the last spell, where population growth has been 2% p.a.
NZ has experienced record net immigration levels up to the end of 2014, of more than 47,000 annually. This will have helped the GDP numbers, just by itself.
A very interesting Q&A and The Nation today, the panels starting to be quite unified in giving the govt a bit of stick for just not doing their job as well as they should be.
Stephen Topliss was mentioned on both shows, the economist from BNZ says it's not impossible we could go into a recession soon. One of the reasons for this sentiment is that they have been out into the provinces and gathered some feedback. I'm sure their loan officers from all around the country are also providing feedback.
A very interesting Q&A and The Nation today, the panels starting to be quite unified in giving the govt a bit of stick for just not doing their job as well as they should be.
Stephen Topliss was mentioned on both shows, the economist from BNZ says it's not impossible we could go into a recession soon.
Of course it's not. Never is in the global world we exist. The sad thing is you and your ilk will be rubbing your hands in glee, just hoping we do.
Of course it's not. Never is in the global world we exist. The sad thing is you and your ilk will be rubbing your hands in glee, just hoping we do.
FP
Interesting article in the business section of the SST today. Good news for NZ manufacturing in that China is no longer the natural 'go to' if you need something made or fabricated. Chinese manufacturers have lost some of their advantages , demanding longer runs before accepting orders . Makes you think this could develop, especially with our dollar declining
Interesting article in the business section of the SST today. Good news for NZ manufacturing in that China is no longer the natural 'go to' if you need something made or fabricated. Chinese manufacturers have lost some of their advantages , demanding longer runs before accepting orders . Makes you think this could develop, especially with our dollar declining
Sgt Pepper, that was a strange article about FERO, a cable harness manufacturer. I noticed that they still offer a Made in China service for their customers, it's just you go through them. Several other manufacturing areas do the same. Badges for your sports team? Made in China, 3-4 weeks wait. We've been finding the deals from China are getting better, it's easier to talk with them over the phone and by email. When the prices are about 1/3 of the NZ made prices sometimes, it's hard to go past. My business is still doing most manufacturing here in NZ, but we'll buy some parts from overseas.
FP, why would I be happy with a recession? I'll be in the middle of it, I'll make a negative return, just like nearly 10,000 dairy farmers, who Steven Joyce correctly pointed out, provide 20% of our export returns, but are only 5% of the economy (and the rest). But if a recession wakes up the voting public and they compare Labour's record with National's for once, then there will be a small silver lining in 2017.
FP, why would I be happy with a recession? I'll be in the middle of it, I'll make a negative return, just like nearly 10,000 dairy farmers, who Steven Joyce correctly pointed out, provide 20% of our export returns, but are only 5% of the economy (and the rest). But if a recession wakes up the voting public and they compare Labour's record with National's for once, then there will be a small silver lining in 2017.
The next govt. will almost certainly be a coalition of National and Winston First. Labour won't make it until they find a leader.
The next govt. will almost certainly be a coalition of National and Winston First. Labour won't make it until they find a leader.
Twitter says NO, FP. Winston doesn't waste time connecting to any National MPs (he watches John Key, John doesn't reciprocate), but he does have three or more two-way links with Labour MPs, including one to the leader. If you look at NZ First's website policies, they look like Labour policies to me. And Winston apparently doesn't like John Key too much. Why did he make such an effort in Northland (including a hammer demonstration), to beat a National candidate expecting a huge majority?
Labour does have a leader, his name is Andrew Little, and he's doing fine. You might be trying to help National with some propaganda FP, but it won't change reality. It'll be a wild ride leading up to the 2017 elections. Three terms in, three terms out.
I think we should offer El Zorro Greek citizenship, he can go there and enjoy the socialist Paradise on a never ending stream of Other People's Money from the rest of the EU.
And after Syriza lose the referendum tomorrow the NZLP should make Alexis Tsipras and Yannis Varoufakis an offer they can't refuse to come to NZ and work for the NZLP.
I think we should offer El Zorro Greek citizenship, he can go there and enjoy the socialist Paradise on a never ending stream of Other People's Money from the rest of the EU.
And after Syriza lose the referendum tomorrow the NZLP should make Alexis Tsipras and Yannis Varoufakis an offer they can't refuse to come to NZ and work for the NZLP.
major
I am surprised by your veiled contempt of Yannis Varoufakis considering you are an economist. Or is your CV/ better than his?? I would be surprised, but prove me wrong.
Last edited by Sgt Pepper; 06-07-2015 at 12:44 AM.
Originally Posted by winner69
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