If National wins ...

[artemis]

About as worried as we were about Moira Coatsworth, snigger, snigger. Nigel H is a non event. Bring back Mike Williams and we will worry. Some posters about Northland are missing some very obvious points. Take out the Northern Maori electorate whatever it's called these days, take out the poor whites and Pacific Islanders who can't be bothered enrolling and/or voting and you have a very strong farmers National seat. Winston is not a good electorate man, he lost in Northland before, he's lost in Tauranga (twice?) which he used to hold as electorate MP, even the media can see it's very unlikely to be an upset.

Mr Peters could be in with a chance if there is a real groundswell of public opinion turning against the current government, giving rise to 'time for a change'. That doesn't seem to be the case (not yet anyway).

[Major von Tempsky]

One of the strongest values that appeals to rural National voters (and remember Northland has a very high National majority from rural National voters) is loyalty, which Winston does not have, in spades.

[elZorro]

I'm not sure why Labour doesn't give National a taste of their own ACT medicine, and pull out of the contest up North. Andrew Little didn't look that convinced it was a good idea to run a candidate this morning, on TV. He was carefully picking his words. Winston will be sure to get a few more along to electioneering meetings.

[iceman]

Possibly 2 reasons. They don't believe Winston would win anyway so they could then be accused of not showing any interest in Northland, where they have fought hard to get the Maori seat. I am sure Kelvin Davies will be pushing hard for them to stand a candidate.

I'm not sure why Labour doesn't give National a taste of their own ACT medicine, and pull out of the contest up North. Andrew Little didn't look that convinced it was a good idea to run a candidate this morning, on TV. He was carefully picking his words. Winston will be sure to get a few more along to electioneering meetings.

[westerly]

About as worried as we were about Moira Coatsworth, snigger, snigger. Nigel H is a non event. Bring back Mike Williams and we will worry.

Some posters about Northland are missing some very obvious points.

Take out the Northern Maori electorate whatever it's called these days, take out the poor whites and Pacific Islanders who can't be bothered enrolling and/or voting and you have a very strong farmers National seat. Winston is not a good electorate man, he lost in Northland before, he's lost in Tauranga (twice?) which he used to hold as electorate MP, even the media can see it's very unlikely to be an upset.

80% of eligble voters voted in the 2014 election in the Northland electorate. That is about average for the rest of NZ. To say the 20% who did not vote were poor whites or Pacific Islanders reveals more about you than anything else. Snigger, snigger.
The standard of journalism in NZ is now so pathetic no in depth analyisis of Winston's reasons for standing are available apart from the usual snide comments by shallow reporters lacking ability or resources to give any depth to what they write. Labour would be doing themselves a favour by not standing a candidate.

westerly

[iceman]

Probably that high as all the women were still elated about being able to vote

80% of eligble voters voted in the 1914 election in the Northland electorate.

westerly

[westerly]

Probably that high as all the women were still elated about being able to vote

Give me a break. I will come into this century some time

[Major von Tempsky]

" To say the 20% who did not vote were poor whites or Pacific Islanders." Disprove it.

80% of those eligible or 80% of those who bothered to register?

Are you saying that the turnout (of those registered) on average for NZ was 80%? Incredibly high.

Winston has long since exhausted the available pool of starry eyed naïve voters. He has to find some special issue and stir it like crazy to even get in with a few bedraggled moronic followers. To anyone with their eyes open Winston's modus operandi has been obvious for decades. Find a special issue that attracts 6 or 7 % of people who actually register and vote, it doesn't matter what it is, Winston will be in favour of it. He is totally without a conscience or scruples or shame.

[elZorro]

" To say the 20% who did not vote were poor whites or Pacific Islanders." Disprove it.

80% of those eligible or 80% of those who bothered to register?

Are you saying that the turnout (of those registered) on average for NZ was 80%? Incredibly high.

Winston has long since exhausted the available pool of starry eyed naïve voters. He has to find some special issue and stir it like crazy to even get in with a few bedraggled moronic followers. To anyone with their eyes open Winston's modus operandi has been obvious for decades. Find a special issue that attracts 6 or 7 % of people who actually register and vote, it doesn't matter what it is, Winston will be in favour of it. He is totally without a conscience or scruples or shame.

Who cares, MVT, we all know that National buys their votes. What is worse?


Here's an article that caught my eye at lunch today. Really well-written and researched.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11411208

Westerly, you and I are in agreement. Maybe it's not too late for Labour to pull out. Let's not have a boring by-election. Labour should even go and help Winston.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/send...voters-6247041

[iceman]

I thought total number of MPs for any party was determined by the overall list votes they got at the general election. So if a party loses an electorate seat in a by-election will it simply not receive another list MP instead and the party winning the electorate would lose a list MP ? So like in the case Rudman outlines of Winston winning and then resigning his list seat, would National not simply pick up an extra list seat ? If what Rudman says is correct then Parliament is no longer proportional to list votes received at general election.