If National wins ...

[Daytr]

Hey so Craic, has gone pretty quiet. Do you know where he lives El Zorro so you can collect your $500? I must admit I thought you were crazy to take that bet at straight odds, but looks like its going to pay!
I just had a beer in one of the locals & Mark Osbourne was there with his team looking pretty somber. I feel sorry for the bloke as I think he handled himself reasonably well for a first timer, but just got sold a lemon.

[craic]

Daytr - even if you are right, I am $500 in the black in my bets with el Z or don't you remember the bet of $,1000 on the last election? Anyway, the reason for my silence is that I am waiting for The Fat Lady to sing - and that doesn't happen "till tomorrow or Sunday and if its a close call against WP then court cases could go for months. Meanwhile I have a lot of wood to split but first, I must go to the TAB and pick my winners for tomorrow. And, I regret to say, they will not include the Black Caps.

[Daytr]

So you will lose two bets this weekend ? The look on Mark Osborne's face in the pub was not one of a winner.
I think it was close until Labour asked their supporters to vote for Peters.
But you are right, fat lady and all that, but my pick is Peters will win by around 3k votes or more.

[iceman]

EZ I think we should be careful posting about the Northland by-election today. We dont want to be in breach of the Electoral Act. Some people were done after the General Election for what they thought were innocent comments. Just a friendly reminder !

[elZorro]

EZ I think we should be careful posting about the Northland by-election today. We dont want to be in breach of the Electoral Act. Some people were done after the General Election for what they thought were innocent comments. Just a friendly reminder !

Quite right Iceman, I had forgotten that. I deleted the post, and I'll put something similar up tomorrow.

[BlackPeter]

Black Peter, do you even believe the stuff you right? Blaming Labour for National's incurred debt after they have been in power 7 years! Give me break. Yes we had the GFC and yes the tax take was down but that doesn't explain $40Bln ! In fact it doesn't even explain $10Bln! Since then thanks to China we have had the biggest export boom this country has ever seen in dairy and debt is still growing and it has every year under National. Yes NZ as did Australia get through the GFC relatively unscathed but that had very little to with either country's government and far more to do with China than anything else. So all we are seeing is an explosion of government debt that there is no plan to start paying down. If we carry on borrowing like we have we are heading in the same place Japan, Europe & the US is with governments that have mass debt burdens with no way to pay off. We are long way from that yet, but that's the direction under National. I am not pro Labour, but they cannot be blamed for debt being incurred 7 years after they left office. Open the other eye!

Hi daytr,

Yes "I do believe the stuff I right". Lol. I even believe the stuff I write. Must be one of these Freudian slips - deep in your unconscious you know that I am right, but you don't want to admit it. See - I think that you are a reasonable intelligent gal / guy, but unfortunately somewhat ideological blind folded.

O.K. - lets look at the numbers. If we believe the numbers from treasury (http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/2011/execsumm/11.htm), than Working for families (one of Helens more expensive bribes) does cost the New Zealand tax payer roughly 2.75 billion per year since 2009. Multiply that with 6 years - and here you've got already 16.5 Billion we otherwise wouldn't have had to take debts on.

Now, lets look at the interest free student loans: according to interest.co.nz (http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-f...billion-intere) did this one of Helens election bribes cost the NZ tax payer already roughly 1.6 billion dollars in 2011 - tendency: rising. So lets assume that these 1.6 billion annually are the median from 2009 to 2014, than we add another 10 billion dollars to the state debt caused by labour's election bribes.

Makes already 26.5 billion dollars.

Add the cost for the Christchurch Earthquake - and we are pretty much covered.

Question: Given that these numbers probably disagree with the teachings of your left/green religion: How do your political priests explain the rise of the national debt? Haven't yet heard a good explanation (or any) coming from your side.

[elZorro]

I'm posting a link.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/ne...ectid=11424231

[Sgt Pepper]

I'm posting a link.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/ne...ectid=11424231

EZ
I was looking at I- Predict today. I noted that the probability of "John Key departing as leader of National in 2017 "has had a sharp increase at 14%, now costs 53 cents. When I made this prediction some time ago, it was flicked off by the likes of MVT etc as wishful thinking. Personally I think he will go before the next election for a variety of reasons , both political and personal.

[Daytr]

I'm not sure where you went to school, however a system that already costs $1Bln and then cost $2.75Bln over 7 years of National equates to circa $11Bln increase, so you are only out by a mere $15Bln. National have been in power for 7 years & they have had the numbers to change policy if they wanted, yet they have chosen not to, so they have accepted the policy & it is now their policy. So I'm sorry you can blame Labor all you like but the fact that haven't changed it suggests they agree or even like the policy. I'm not saying its a good policy or not, but I don't accept you can blame a previous government that hasn't been in office for over two terms! Where has the money from the asset sales gone? We still have $20Bln unaccounted for and I'm sure that's spent on whatever as well. My main point is National is getting this country into hock & its no one else's fault but theirs.
You mistakenly think I am some sort of lefty, haha, another bad assumption. If it was Labor doing similarly bad things, I'd be sticking it to them also.

Hi daytr,

Yes "I do believe the stuff I right". Lol. I even believe the stuff I write. Must be one of these Freudian slips - deep in your unconscious you know that I am right, but you don't want to admit it. See - I think that you are a reasonable intelligent gal / guy, but unfortunately somewhat ideological blind folded.

O.K. - lets look at the numbers. If we believe the numbers from treasury (http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/2011/execsumm/11.htm), than Working for families (one of Helens more expensive bribes) does cost the New Zealand tax payer roughly 2.75 billion per year since 2009. Multiply that with 6 years - and here you've got already 16.5 Billion we otherwise wouldn't have had to take debts on.

Now, lets look at the interest free student loans: according to interest.co.nz (http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-f...billion-intere) did this one of Helens election bribes cost the NZ tax payer already roughly 1.6 billion dollars in 2011 - tendency: rising. So lets assume that these 1.6 billion annually are the median from 2009 to 2014, than we add another 10 billion dollars to the state debt caused by labour's election bribes.

Makes already 26.5 billion dollars.

Add the cost for the Christchurch Earthquake - and we are pretty much covered.

Question: Given that these numbers probably disagree with the teachings of your left/green religion: How do your political priests explain the rise of the national debt? Haven't yet heard a good explanation (or any) coming from your side.

[elZorro]

Hi daytr,

Yes "I do believe the stuff I right". Lol. I even believe the stuff I write. Must be one of these Freudian slips - deep in your unconscious you know that I am right, but you don't want to admit it. See - I think that you are a reasonable intelligent gal / guy, but unfortunately somewhat ideological blind folded.

O.K. - lets look at the numbers. If we believe the numbers from treasury (http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/2011/execsumm/11.htm), than Working for families (one of Helens more expensive bribes) does cost the New Zealand tax payer roughly 2.75 billion per year since 2009. Multiply that with 6 years - and here you've got already 16.5 Billion we otherwise wouldn't have had to take debts on.

Now, lets look at the interest free student loans: according to interest.co.nz (http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-f...billion-intere) did this one of Helens election bribes cost the NZ tax payer already roughly 1.6 billion dollars in 2011 - tendency: rising. So lets assume that these 1.6 billion annually are the median from 2009 to 2014, than we add another 10 billion dollars to the state debt caused by labour's election bribes.

Makes already 26.5 billion dollars.

Add the cost for the Christchurch Earthquake - and we are pretty much covered.

Question: Given that these numbers probably disagree with the teachings of your left/green religion: How do your political priests explain the rise of the national debt? Haven't yet heard a good explanation (or any) coming from your side.

Blackpeter: fascinating facts there, but you missed out on some other ones. Labour posted a very healthy surplus every year they were in office, which means that whatever "bribes" you think they used to get into office, they obviously were balanced out by a good tax take, so they'd grown the economy.

National upped the GST to 15%, what did that bring in? Labour brought out WFF in 2004 to balance higher costs for families. It wasn't a bribe, it was meant to be a rebalance. National has increased the WFF rates twice.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_for_Families

Similarly, the state paid for almost all of my tertiary education. Now students pay about 40% of the costs. At least they should have an interest free loan in the meantime. Govt borrowing costs are minimal after all.

The problem for the budget surplus, as I see it, is that National has trouble growing the economy. Labour were actually very good at it.

There was high advance voting in Northland, which means there should be a great turnout. Voting closes at 7pm, preliminary results should be known by 10.30 pm.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...-in-byelection