If National wins ...

[Major von Tempsky]

Some prophetic words for the NZLP for EZ etc to ponder "Labour is now the third most popular party among working class voters, a new poll has revealed, as the party faces a close-run battle with Ukip to hold on to one of its key seats in the north.

Research undertaken by YouGov found that Labour ranks behind Ukip and the Conservatives among lower-income voters for what could be the first time in the party's history.

It came as one of Jeremy Corbyn's closest allies called Ukip voters in Stoke "toe-rags ... who nick your bike" ahead of a by-election vote later this month. "

[iceman]

I think a majority of lower income workers are already voting National over Labour and will continue to do so as Labour does not connect with them. Of equal or more interest for this year's election will be to see how Labour's support in the big cities will go this year. The Greens are running some interesting young, fresh candidates that could well take quite a bit of Labour's support in areas such as Auckland Central and Wellington, as well as many other electorates. I hope the Greens give these new candidates high list places to improve their chances of getting into parliament to replace some of the current Green's deadwood.

While the Greens refresh, Labour calls up has beens like Willie Jackson, Greg O'Connor (whom I have the greatest of respect for). Laila Harre etc etc. The question will be which part of the Labour-Green-Alliance will be bigger post election to lead the Opposition against English, Joyce, Peters and Jones !!

[westerly]

Given that about two thirds of the population own their own houses, there's a natural majority for rising house prices and people won't vote to crash house prices. Until the lefties realise that, they are just flagellating themselves...

About a third own their homes. Another third are mortgaged and the rest rent. The third renting do not want price increases as their rents will rise. If prices keep rising those who actually own their home do not necessarily want rising house prices, any gain in value is reflected in the cost of buying another house if they need to shift. Also many are concerned that it has become extremely difficult for their children, or grandchildren to purchase a property.
The heavily mortgaged want prices to rise obviously, as do the property investors.
National will do nothing as is usual, let the developers run the new house market
Is it possible now to buy a section without a building contract, without restrictive conditions, down to the size and colour of the letter box ?
There is an opportunity for Labour and the Greens there if they are bold enough.

westerly

[macduffy]

Sorry to pinprick, westerly, but that third with mortgages on their homes do own them!

[elZorro]

Sorry to pinprick, westerly, but that third with mortgages on their homes do own them!

Not according to the bank, they don't outright own their homes. The banks come along for the ride with virtually no risk overall, and a minimum amount of real cash invested.

Think about these figures though. The ANZ thinks NZ is short of 60,000 homes right now. The govt estimated 30,000 a few years ago, and it's getting worse each year. Now Bill says the shortfall is only 10-20,000, but is highly evasive on where that figure comes from. That's because he's like John Key, he just made it up on the spot.

Labour has proposed a KiwiBuild scheme which could produce 100,000 homes over 10 years, and target lower income and middle income prospective homeowners. They've done the numbers.

National thinks that's a joke (it is not), meanwhile these rogues empty state houses, put them up for sale, level them into paddocks, stand them idle while they have a think about renovating them. All in some of the worst-hit cities in NZ. They are doing a very good job of ramping up rental costs, and the prices of existing stocks. It's hard to believe they are doing anything other than feathering the nests of the rentiers, and most of them are rentiers too.

Good news today - Greens to stand aside in Ohariu to help ensure a change of govt.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...ite-misgivings

"Dunne Must be Undone"

[artemis]

..... these rogues empty state houses, put them up for sale, level them into paddocks, stand them idle while they have a think about renovating them. All in some of the worst-hit cities in NZ. ...

I wonder if you have checked out the Housing NZ vacant housing quarterly reports as measured against the Social Housing Register for location and size.

There is a vacant properties report by territorial local authority / reason for vacancy, and another by short-term and long-term vacancy also with reasons.

That would provide some actual facts.

[fungus pudding]

I wonder if you have checked out the Housing NZ vacant housing quarterly reports as measured against the Social Housing Register for location and size.

There is a vacant properties report by territorial local authority / reason for vacancy, and another by short-term and long-term vacancy also with reasons.

That would provide some actual facts.

eZ works on alternative facts.

[westerly]

Sorry to pinprick, westerly, but that third with mortgages on their homes do own them!

Technically yes, but in reality only the house value minus the mortgage is theirs.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-f...ectid=11651660

westerly

[macduffy]

Technically yes, but in reality only the house value minus the mortgage is theirs.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-f...ectid=11651660

westerly

More pinpricking!

My understanding of the legal position is that the mortgagee bank has a legal "interest" in the property but is not the "owner" of any portion of the property. Happy to be corrected on this point if this is not so.

[elZorro]

I wonder if you have checked out the Housing NZ vacant housing quarterly reports as measured against the Social Housing Register for location and size.

There is a vacant properties report by territorial local authority / reason for vacancy, and another by short-term and long-term vacancy also with reasons.

That would provide some actual facts.

Are you saying that there are valid reasons for every state house that is boarded up in places like Hamilton, that these cannot be quickly recovered as rentals? No, there are other reasons for some of it. National is just pulling the funding down to a level where they'll only renovate the easiest ones. They'd rather let the rest just sit there, or try and flog them off to take even more money out. They're bleeding it dry like the private sector did to the Railways a few years ago.

One of the special housing areas in Queenstown, the biggest one, is at least partly a gated retirement area with villas, not exactly what the intention was meant to be. That got off the ground OK.